Yankees, Blue Jays Interested in Cuban Defector Daniel Carbonell

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by GW87 Comments

dcarbonellLast October, center fielder Daniel Carbonell Arredondo and infielder Orlando Perez Darias defected from Cuba. As far as I can tell, their defection has yet to be reported in the American press. Carbonell played for Camaguey in the Cuban National Series from the 2009-10 season through ’12-13. He was suspended last August prior to his successful defection. Carbonell is currently residing in Mexico has scheduled a workout with fifteen clubs next month. The Yankees and Blue Jays have already expressed interest.

Perez was a reserve infielder for Industriales in ’11-12, but failed to accumulate any statistics.

Racing Against the Clock

In order to sign with an MLB team as a free agent, Cuban defectors must first establish residency in a foreign country and then gain clearance from the US Treasury department. If Carbonell doesn’t complete this process by July 2nd, he will no longer be considered a professional by Major League Baseball.

For the last two years, Cuban defectors have been considered professionals and eligible for free agency as long as they were 23 years old and had played in Cuba’s Serie Nacional for at least three seasons. Starting in July 2014, in yet another bit of CBA capriciousness, players need to have played at least five seasons in order to qualify. Carbonell, even though he started in the Series at 18 years old, will no longer fit the bill.

In all signing periods following the 2013- 2014 signing period, Cuban players only will be exempt if they are 23 years of age and have played as a professional in a Cuban professional league for a minimum of five seasons.

If not approved before July 2nd, his signing bonus will count against a team’s allotted bonus pool in the 2014-2015 international free agency signing period, limiting the amount that teams may be willing to spend. Approval times vary. Yasiel Puig managed it in just a few months after his defection, but it can take considerably longer, particularly if there are any complications with paperwork.

 

Daniel Carbonell Stats

Tm Age PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS R RBI HBP BB SO GIDP SB% lgSB%
2010 Cmg 19 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.50
2011 Cmg 20 199 174 51 5 1 2 6 4 39 19 2 19 28 2 0.60 0.52
2012 Cmg 21 222 195 53 10 2 2 9 2 38 23 6 16 38 3 0.82 0.53
2013 Cmg 22 96 87 27 6 1 3 3 2 16 15 2 5 21 1 0.60 0.53
2013.5 Cmg 22 127 111 32 7 0 2 6 2 24 13 6 10 11 1 0.75 0.49
Totals 645 568 163 28 4 9 24 10 119 70 16 50 98 7 0.71 0.52
Age PA AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS+ BB% K% lgBB% lgK%
2010 19 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0 0 9 12
2011 20 199 0.293 0.367 0.368 0.075 78 10 14 10 11
2012 21 222 0.272 0.344 0.374 0.102 87 7 17 9 12
2013 22 96 0.310 0.358 0.506 0.196 141 5 22 9 12
2013.5 22 127 0.288 0.378 0.405 0.117 101 8 9 9 11
Totals 645 0.287 0.359 0.398 0.111 94 8 15 9 11

Carbonell is an athletic center-fielder whose calling card is his speed.

He is very fast, much faster than Yasiel Puig.

His success rate on stolen bases is much higher than league average, but he didn’t run as much as one might expect, with only 34 attempts during his time in Cuba. On the whole, his numbers are less impressive than some previous defectors, but there are a few things to keep in mind:

  • Due to the length of the Cuban season, and Carbonell’s relative youth in starting there we have a limited sample to work with, about one full season’s worth of plate appearances at the MLB level.
  • Cuba’s season starts shortly after the MLB season ends and runs through May. What I list as the 2012 season started in November of 2011 and ran through May of 2012. I’ve chosen to use MLB’s age conventions; so while Carbonell is listed as 22 for 2012, he was actually only 21 until nearly the end of that season.
  • In 2012, in an attempt to reduce offensive levels, Cuba raised the pitcher’s mound and shifted to a less-lively baseball. The bulk of his numbers in Cuba came in this environment.

Video

Given his age and athleticism, I wouldn’t mind seeing the Cubs take a chance.

For more cuban defector profiles, go here. I’ll have more on Carbonell and comparisons to other recent defectors in the coming weeks.

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Comments

  1. J

    No, this guy doesn’t do it for me. It feels like his upside is Junior Lake’s upside, and Lake is a lot closer to realizing that. The BP footage didn’t impress, and those Cuban samples are neither good enough or large enough to really impress. This feels like a $300-500k offer. I’m not at all convinced the hit tool plays at MLB.

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  2. Author
    GW

    J wrote:

    This feels like a $300-500k offer.

    That’s probably the right neighborhood. Dariel Alvarez and Hank Urrutia were around $800k; they were both older and less athletic.

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  3. Like You Care

    Trestman said his defense will be flexible with it's scheme. "We're going to start with a 43 but have to be flexible."— Dan Kadar (@MockingTheDraft) February 20, 2014

    Either defensive scheme is becoming less important or I’m beginning to realize that it’s not that important. It’s more about having a style and getting the best players on the field.

    For example, the difference between the 3-4 and a 4-3 Under look is basically nothing. In a true 3-4, the NT lines up over the center. In a 4-3 Under, he shades to the gap between the center and the strong-side guard.

    And while I’m typing my comment, this happens:

    Trestman says he won't lock in and say what kind of system he's running on defense and it will depend on the players Phil Emery gives him.— Dan Kadar (@MockingTheDraft) February 20, 2014

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  4. Like You Care

    Trestman: Shea McClellin knows he will be a linebacker. Will work at Sam and some at mike as well— Brad Biggs (@BradBiggs) February 20, 2014

    The writing is on the wall for Bostic.

    And I’ve read enough to do a new mock for the Bears.

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  5. Like You Care

    Top priority during free agency has to be bringing back Melton. Then on to addressing their needs with starters at every defensive position.

    It’s difficult to do these mock off-seasons without knowing what the coaches know about player development. In CHI’s case, I’d like to know about the development of Khaseem Greene, Bostic, Cornelius Washington and David Bass. To me, that’s a developmental 3-4 LB core and it’s possible that they think drafting a DT completes their front 7.

    Going by my pre-draft opinions of those guys, I’m going to say CHI should try to sign an impact starter at DE/OLB or S. I think the other positions can be fixed in the draft.

    Brian Orakpo, Michael Bennett, Michael Johnson
    Jairus Byrd, TJ Ward, Malcolm Jenkins

    I’m going to predict they get Michael Bennett and draft accordingly…

    14 S CALVIN PRYOR LOUISVILLE
    51 CB KYLE FULLER VIRGINIA TECH
    82 DT DAQUAN JONES PENN STATE
    113 CB BASHAUD BREELAND CLEMSON
    144 S MARQUESTON HUFF WYOMING

    That off-season, imo, turns the Bears defense from one of the three worst in the NFL last year to maybe the best in the division.

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  6. Like You Care

    Assuming no FA additions…

    14 DE KONY EALY MISSOURI
    51 S ED REYNOLDS STANFORD
    82 CB TERRANCE MITCHELL OREGON
    113 DT CARAUN REID PRINCETON
    144 CB ANTONE EXUM VIRIGNIA TECH

    Drop off from Bennett to Ealy and Pryor to Reynolds, but not much else.

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  7. Like You Care

    @ Myles:

    It’s hard when you’re QBing the defense, but didn’t Briggs do that? Other than that, it’s pretty instinctive. To be honest, though, I didn’t watch enough of CHI to know why Bostic didn’t fare well.

    All I know is that comment points to concern. CJ Mosly, Yawin Smallwood, Borland, Skov and Christian Jones just became draft candidates for CHI.

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  8. Like You Care

    @ WaLi:

    The key going forward is why, though. Was he physically outmatched? Mental lapses? Missed assignments?

    CHI fans who watched will know if he’s salvageable, but the coaching staff doesn’t seem to think so.

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  9. Mucker

    In my opinion, Bostic has the physicality and athletic ability to play the position. He’s fast as hell and he hits like a hammer. That being said, he has unbelievably bad gap discipline and combine that with the terrible defensive line the Bears had and he was constantly out of position. I think he was abused on cut back runs and I think teams knew that and ran a lot of misdirection and cut back runs. This is just my opinion though.

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  10. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    Melton returning and swapping Peppers with Bennett/Ealy will help that. The rest is on him, and that can be a tough thing to overcome. If he’s blowing his assignment because he’s too aggressive, that can be fixed.

    The other thing, as you know, is “vision.” It’s why Frank Gore is still productive. LBs have to play gaps just like RBs do (especially on zone runs).

    So I’d defer to Mucker on whether Bostic is the answer at MLB. He seems athletic enough to move outside if they drafted CJ Mosley.

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  11. Pezcore

    J wrote:

    No, this guy doesn’t do it for me. It feels like his upside is Junior Lake’s upside, and Lake is a lot closer to realizing that. The BP footage didn’t impress, and those Cuban samples are neither good enough or large enough to really impress. This feels like a $300-500k offer. I’m not at all convinced the hit tool plays at MLB.

    I gotta agree. We spent a ton on Jorge Soler and Geraldo Concepcion, both relatively inexperienced, and neither seems to have panned out. I think, as far as IFA are concerned, the Cubs should choose the experienced guy with less upside.

    I’m happy the Cubs have avoided the urge to impulse buy this offseason. In 2012, we gave 4 years and 40+ million to Edwin Jackson plus 5.5 million to Scott Baker. Baker had 3 starts in all of 2013. Edwin Jackson broke the single-inning record for wild pitches in an inning and lead the NL in losses.

    There must have been a temptation to repeat those mistakes and speed up the process, and I think he made the right decision. Even if Jackson and Baker matched career years, the Cubs would have won about nine more games, still more than 10 games under .500.

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  12. Sk on a plane

    Figures the Wifi signal is stronger at the front of the plane. Fucking class discrimination alive and well at 32,000 feet.

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  13. Jason

    Pezcore wrote:

    We spent a ton on Jorge Soler and Geraldo Concepcion, both relatively inexperienced, and neither seems to have panned out

    I don’t know that I’d say Soler hasn’t panned out given that he’s still registering as a top prospect. And I don’t think we can properly evaluate Concepcion until he fully recovers from his bout with mono.

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  14. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    I think if he had a better D line in front of him, then he wouldn’t have been so exposed and could grow into the position. I do believe he’s too aggressive. A LBs first step should always be forward but with him it seems his first 5 steps are always forward.

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  15. Pezcore

    @ Jason:
    Well, the good news is that his horrid start got him removed from the 40-man, and the Cubs quickly signed him to a minor league deal so there is no pressure to rush him to the majors.

    I thought for a while that the Cubs would be able to outright the guy somewhere down the line — I didn’t expect it to happen this soon.

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  16. GBTS

    “But Ricketts fell far short of explaining where the fifth-highest revenues in the sport are being spent as the baseball operation — which killed an offseason by setting aside $20 million in 2014 budget to make the run at Japanese free agent Masahiro Tanaka that ultimately couldn’t compete with the New York Yankees — deals with a decade-low payroll.”

    Anyone have any clue what the fuck this means? Tanaka’s posting fee that they didn’t pay “killed an offseason”?

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  17. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    GW wrote:

    in which OV breaks news:
    http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/yankees-blue-jays-interested-in-cuban-defector-daniel-carbonell.html

    You’ve really killed it with the international coverage over the last year, GW. Just some fine work that you’ve done.

    I re-read a bunch of your articles on this last evening and this morning after an unfortunate event led me to the ER and an overnight hospital stay. I know I’ve complimented you on this before, but I really think it’s deserving.

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  18. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    @ Pezcore:
    You’ve got to start spending at some point. We can, and should, argue whether a specific deal was necessary, but this idea that you can easily go from 65 to 95 wins in one year is unlikely. I keep hearing they have to wait until so and so is at the big league level. Maybe, but what if they just aren’t that good? Considering that is probably the most likely outcome of these prospects, I think it’s been paid less than the necessary attention it should be.

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  19. J

    I hear a lot of local radio that defends the lack of spending. I do think that at some point you have to try to create a winning culture for your prospects to move into. As was said above, teams typically don’t go from 65 to 95 wins. I think there’s value in putting young players in situations that matter. Anyone who watched the Cubs in the ’07 and ’08 playoffs should realize that the tension gets to players and being on the Cubs is harder than being on other teams. You need cool-ass veterans who don’t crumble under pressure like everyone who has put on a Cubs uniform in the last 100 years.

    If signing Ubaldo or Ervin Santana to 4/$50m actually hinders this teams payroll in 2016, then god help us all. We’ll never get past the Cards or Dodgers if that’s the case.

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  20. Like You Care

    Well Johnny Manziel didn’t quite make it to 6 feet (5116), but his hands are probably the biggest of the QBs at 9 7/8.

    For reference, Blake Bortles’ (6050, 232 lbs.) measured 9 3/8.

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  21. Edwin

    I just try and look ahead, and I figure that even if Baez and Bryant come up around the same time and are both 4 WAR players, if they’re replacing two 1 WAR players, it’s only a 6 net WAR improvement. So if the True Talent Level of team is 72, then they’re still only at 78 wins, which is closer, but it still means they need to spend a ton in FA just to be in contention. It’s not like Baez and Bryant get called up, they sign a FA or 2, and suddenly they’re favorites to win the division.

    Granted, that’s pretty flimsy napkin math I’m doing, but I feel like if the Cubs wait for their farm system to turn them into an 80-85 true talent level team before adding signifigant FA, they’ll either never get there and find themselves in a holding pattern of “tanking”, or they won’t get there until 2017.

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  22. Myles

    Edwin wrote:

    I just try and look ahead, and I figure that even if Baez and Bryant come up around the same time and are both 4 WAR players, if they’re replacing two 1 WAR players, it’s only a 6 net WAR improvement. So if the True Talent Level of team is 72, then they’re still only at 78 wins, which is closer, but it still means they need to spend a ton in FA just to be in contention. It’s not like Baez and Bryant get called up, they sign a FA or 2, and suddenly they’re favorites to win the division.
    Granted, that’s pretty flimsy napkin math I’m doing, but I feel like if the Cubs wait for their farm system to turn them into an 80-85 true talent level team before adding signifigant FA, they’ll either never get there and find themselves in a holding pattern of “tanking”, or they won’t get there until 2017.

    Essentially exactly how I feel.

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  23. Edwin

    @ Myles:

    I really like what you did in your Quiet Optimism post. I think it’d be interesting to try and forecast the Cubs for 2015 and 2016. I fully understand the lack of reliablility of such an exercise, but I’d be interested in finding out how likely/unlikely it would be for the Cubs to contend in 2016 with at least some type of modeling behind it, instead of the “Prospects should be up by then, and a couple FA will be signed”.

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  24. TheStealthGM

    @ all re: Cub spending

    I think the common sense understanding of the ST article and Ricketts’ odd quotes is that
    internally the Cubs “budgeted” a figure for a major signing, like Tanaka, but knew they could
    not compete with LA or NY. That way, the PR department could say “gosh, golly, we set aside
    a lot of money to sign Tanaka, but could not pull the trigger.” It is sort of the same logic that
    a Union soldier on the front lines of Pickett’s Charge telling his commander that he is saving his
    bullets for later “in case he needs them.”

    I believe the mish-mash explanations from the Cubs in regard to spending is mostly a cover
    because the true intent was never to spend more money on payroll. The Cubs may have had a top 5 revenue, but that has been declining because attendance has been lower. The Cubs just refinanced their purchase debt, so that still comes with $35 million plus in debt service and probably more restrictive loan covenants on baseball spending. In addition, the Cubs have doubled their administrative costs under Ricketts, who also bought lots of land around Wrigley Field that has associated costs.

    When Ricketts bought the Cubs, it was under the family understanding that the business had to be self contained – – – no further capital infusions. High payrolls, dead money contracts and losing teams more likely results in losses rather than profits. Adding to these financial pressures is Ricketts own mindset that he believes the rooftops are taking away revenue from “his” team; that the neighborhood bars around Wrigley are taking away “his” drinking customers in the hours before games start. At some point I think we will see Ricketts show up at Cub convention, unshaven, fiddling with marbles in one hand, and complaining about missing strawberries.

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  25. dmick89, Sweatpants Guru

    TheStealthGM wrote:

    At some point I think we will see Ricketts show up at Cub convention, unshaven, fiddling with marbles in one hand, and complaining about missing strawberries.

    (dying laughing)

    I wonder how Theo feels about the situation. He’s never going to be honest to the media and his half-ass attempt to say they may “book” some of the available dollars this offseason for later was funny. I’m very skeptical of an MLB or any sports owners not spending money so that he can spend it later. If you set aside $30 million and it doesn’t get spent, next year’s payroll is not going to be higher by that $30 million.

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  26. Like You Care

    To make it relevant, I did the same for the Cubs…after I looked up the roster. They weren’t as funny, so I just put the ones that weren’t boring.

    P
    alberto cabrera bread and butter
    james macdonald church
    travis wood silicon valley bank

    INF
    luis valbuena bat flip

    OF
    ryan sweeney natasha lampson
    matt szczur al yellon showed penis

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  27. Like You Care

    McCarron "I feel like I've been disrespected my whole college career because I've won."— Dan Kadar (@MockingTheDraft) February 21, 2014

    ORLY?

    [img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaWbSufCcAAs981.jpg[/img]

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  28. akabari

    @ Like You Care:
    Call me crazy, but I fucking hate Krispy Kreme. Thin, overly sweet, and just…ugh.
    I feel like they give away so many at the store because they know no one will eat them the moment they aren’t hot anymore.
    I’d rather eat a gas station doughnut.

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  29. Mucker

    @ Like You Care:
    You know, I agree with that guy. Although Clowney could probably play 4-3 DE, putting him anywhere other than 3-4 OLB pass rusher should be a crime. I don’t see any LT in the league that can get out wide fast enough to block him from the 9 technique. I can’t wait for him to play in the NFL. I’m going to watch him on every snap.

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  30. Like You Care

    @ Mucker:

    Or just a wide-9 DE. Like I said yesterday, though, I don’t think scheme matters as much as philosophy anymore. Look at SF. Their base defense consists of (what they played in college):

    NT: DT
    5-Tech: DE, DE
    OLB: DE, MLB
    ILB: MLB, OLB
    CB: CB, FS
    S: SS, SS

    I’ve also said HOU should take Clowney just to put him next to Watt. What do you do on offense when your LT has Clowney over his left shoulder and Watt over his right? Run counters away from them all game? Split ’em up and you have 80% of your oline blocking two guys.

    Keep Matt Schaub with that defense and tell him he’ll be fine if he can lead the offense to a couple of FGs and not throw an INT.

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  31. Like You Care

    aggy WR might have jumped Sammy Watkins as top WR just by being measured. If he runs what I think he’ll run, he’ll go early.

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  32. Like You Care

    HOU passing on Clowney and the Rams taking him scares the shit out of me. They’ll line up Clowney, Robert Quinn, Chris Long and Michael Brockers and it won’t really matter who else.

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  33. Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect

    @ Like You Care:

    Clowney and Watt on the same team would be so much fun. I don’t think the HOU front office has the balls to weather fan discontent and keep Schaub though – this is the same team that fired Kubiak something like 5 years too late. He’s a much better QB than he was last year.

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  34. Like You Care

    @ Berselius, Cubs #12 prospect:

    It will be interesting for sure. This is the team that passed on the perfect fit in Vince Young for Mario Williams.

    What will be really interesting to me is what happens if HOU takes Clowney and then Derek Carr lasts through the first round.

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  35. TheStealthGM

    @dmick89,

    It is more interesting that the $30 million figure is about the same amount for
    last amounts of dead money contracts for 2014 ($14.5 million) and current players who will be free agents in 2015 ($16.0 million).

    I project the 2015 base payroll to be around $56.3 million, which is getting close to crazy Marlins territory.

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  36. William Henton

    I see Soriano I don’t know what you guys are talking about. When you consider his speed and those hands id pay him more than either SS can’t hit v

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