There hasn’t been any significant news on the International Free Agency front since the Cubs officially signed Catfish Tseng last week. (The Cubs don’t seem to be in on Alexander Guerrero, which is somewhat disappointing, though not unexpected). As such, I thought I would present a few thoughts on the Cubs’ July 2nd IFA strategy, since it seems that a few are still not convinced that the team made any sort of error in judgement in the market. I don’t think it’s a big deal, but I’m not one to let a good debate die, and I certainly don’t think the team deserves media accolades for their grand strategy.
My position is that the team intended to stay within their allotted pool space. I also don’t think there is anything about their actions during IFA signing that should have led us to believe that the team was in dire financial straits. And I think that all of this is fairly obvious to an outside observer. If you agree with me, or are just counting down the days until the start of the NFL season, no need to read on.
1. Jen-Ho Tseng: Fallback or Target?
Take a minute to compare Baseball America’s predictions for top 30 signings to the actual outcomes. This wasn’t guesswork. There wasn’t a whole lot of mystery about where most of these players were going to sign, since most had already agreed to deals. The one big exception was Tseng, a Boras client who acted like Boras clients do, stringing out the process to get the best offer. Now, it could be the case that the one guy out of all the available IFAs that the Cubs targeted for overspending happened to also be the player that didn’t have an agreement in place by the Fourth of July. More likely, though, is that he was the best (and nearly only) available fallback when the team realized that acquiring the necessary pool space to sign Eloy Jimenez was going to be more costly than they thought.
2. International pool money is worth more than it’s weight in dollars.
This is a bit of a subtle point, but fairly obvious if you think about it. The reason that the international cap exists is because teams would spend more money on these players if they were left to themselves. With the exception of the occasional barren year for talent here or there, this means that a dollar’s worth of pool space is going to be worth more than a real dollar. The implication here is that if the Cubs were trying to overspend their pool while saving some money in the process (as is claimed by their defenders), they would have been better off doing anything but what they did. Want to trade Ronald Torreyes because he’s redundant? Go for a prospect or cash elsewhere, not pool space. Want to maximize the return on Scott Feldman? Ask for cash or a lower-level arm instead of pool space. In fact, this is what the Cubs did with Carlos Marmol. Marmol essentially had no value (he cleared waivers for the Dodgers after they acquired him), but the Cubs managed to get $500k in salary relief by sending along $210k in pool space.* Teams targeted pool space in order to stay within their spending limits, not to exceed them. I see no reason to believe the Cubs were an exception.
*The inclusion of Guerrier complicates the issue a bit, but I think the general point stands.
3. The Cubs didn’t save much money.
For all their effort, the team really didn’t spend that much less than they would have had they not made any trades for space. The Cubs ended up spending $10.2 million on IFAs when including the penalty tax. Without any acquired space, they would have spent $11.1 million. However, if they had acquired an extra $613k in space ($404k without the Marmol trade) and passed on Tseng, they would have spent only $6.4 million. That was the cost-saving move, not getting more than halfway there and overspending anyway. And it would have come with the added bonus of no penalties in 2014. That the Cubs didn’t go that route to me is a clear signal that the additional space was too expensive (likely in terms of prospects), and they weren’t willing to pay for it.
4. Don’t take my word for it.
To your average beat reporter, covering the acquisition of 16-year old Dominicans is above and beyond the call of duty. They simply have no reason to doubt front office explanations on the matter, no matter how ad hoc. The front office leaks their intentions in early July and then confirms in mid-August? Sounds like consistency.
Fortunately for those of us who are really interested, Ben Badler exists. Badler correctly predicted where all but 3 of the top 30 prospects would sign; it’s safe to say that he has his ear to the ground. And he has consistently maintained that the Cubs miscalculated here. He first reported that teams were having troubles trading for space in late June, reiterated that the Cubs were one of these teams in early July, and has heard nothing to convince him otherwise (see here in response to OV’s own Sitrick).
I’m not bothered by what the Cubs did. It would be nice if they had perfect foresight, but for most of us, a front office that’s actually willing to spend in the international market is still a refreshing upgrade. I wasn’t crazy about the Torreyes trade, and am glad that they didn’t have to give up another prospect of that caliber in order to stay within their space. If there is anything to take from this, it’s that not every move is going to be brilliant. Theo has said that from day one, and on that front, I completely believe him.
Comments
Yep. Not a big deal even if you and I have beaten a dead horse about it. It’s also nice to complain about moves that have little overall signifacance. It beats complaining about ones that have huge consequences.
dmick89Quote Reply
Said it before, but it deserves repeating. Great job with amateur stuff this summer. Really good work and very much appreciated.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Thanks. It’s been fun. It would be even moreso if they end up signing Abreu, but I don’t think that’s going to happen.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I don’t think so either. May as well do it.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
+1 & etc.
I can’t get too bent out of shape about this whole thing. There wasn’t much in the way of precedent to guide their thinking, and they guessed wrong. An unfortunate side effect of all this is probably going to be that their cap space next year will lose a ton of value if other teams reckon that they don’t have any use for it, which’ll suck if they continue their progress in the race to the bottom. Selah.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Ok, huge grain of salt on this one because my source has demonstrated to be gullible/quick to accept a rumor, but… My gal has been a season ticket holder in the bleachers (not Yellon) for 30+ years and goes to almost every single game. She claims to have heard this from the Cubs director of security. The claim is that the deal was to get DeJesus and his wife out of town as a result of indecent behavior at a team event on Saturday. Apparently, there was a team meeting on Sunday that delayed a season ticket holder autograph/meet players event to discuss discipline issues. The timing of the whole thing lines up. And I can also buy this as being a “Cubs Way” kind of thing. DeJesus doesn’t strike me as guy who has a very long leash in terms of discipline simply because he’s not a star. It also would make sense of the whole waiver deal, and makes sense given the apparent good relationship with the Nats FO. If this is more of a discipline issue, it makes sense that this would be a good way to quietly get the DeJesuses out of town, and the Nats seem like the right team to do it.
Again, big grain of salt, but the story makes some amount of sense given the absence of a logical explanation.
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Supposedly, the penalties are likely to be greater next year, either because of an international draft, or because the penalties will be 2 years instead of 1.
26.2cubfanQuote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
interesting.
26.2cubfan wrote:
this is true. (pretty sure the draft is ruled out for 2014)
GWQuote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
It does make some sense and helps explain what otherwise has been a move kind of the opposite to how they’ve done business.
dmick89Quote Reply
No international draft in 2014
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
So maybe it was Rizzo doing Theo a favor. Innnnnnnteresting.
joshQuote Reply
Weird that the FO would be so proactive in saying they’d be open to having DDJ back then. Would think they’d just be quiet. Weird.
sitrickQuote Reply
I don’t know if I buy that story. DeJesus has been widely described as a great person. Now maybe that is all narrative as well, but the public event was Season Ticket Holder Family day and from Kim’s twitter feed, it looks like everything was fine there.
Plus, if it’s a disciplinary thing, I’d think there would be less surprise among her and her friends and they all seemed genuinely shocked when the trade was announced.
Considering the shit that players get away with nowadays that we never hear about, I have a hard time believing DeJesus (or his wife) did something SO BAD on Saturday that they had to be traded instantly without there being any other trail or whisper about it in anything resembling a credible source.
Aisle424Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
You’re probably right.
@ GW:
That sucks.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
would need more info to have any confidence, of course, but it would make sense.
plus, we’ve all done stupid things in public when drunk, right?
/looks around desperately for support
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Oh, the stories I could tell…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
Do we know if he cleared waivers before being traded or did the Nationals claim him? Either way, the complications of making a waiver deal make the whole thing even more unlikely since they wouldn’t be able to make a snap decision to trade him when the waiver process is involved.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
claimed by the nats. but only 7 teams would have had a chance before them, and most of those probably wouldn’t have even considered it, so it could have happened quickly…
i like the thought, though. placed on waivers on sunday, traded monday night, right?
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
He supposedly missed a call from Theo at 1:00pm on Monday.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
i dunno. does the league office work weekends?
GWQuote Reply
or i suppose the claims could have been in the week before, but they didn’t decide to trade him until later…
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Don’t know. If there is more to it, I have to think it is tied to something else than just a singular incident over the weekend, but then, it’s hard to believe we haven’t heard some rumblings prior to this. Hell, we heard Dempster was fucking his nanny and that was when the Cubs were REALLY trying to operate in stealth mode.
I like DeJesus, but I don’t think moving him was going to require that level of secrecy if all they were getting in return was some salary relief. It just doesn’t add up to me.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing). I know they loved DeJesus. they made a point of saying what a good example he was to the kids when rehabbing in Arizona. and there’s no doubt that players can get away with a lot… it just could be a different situation if it happened in front of the season ticket holders. it’s just plausible to me, is all.
GWQuote Reply
@ 26.2cubfan:
This is going to sound very “guy in the purple hoodie”ish, but was the guy she heard it from wearing a maroon shirt or a powder blue one?
Aisle424Quote Reply
Maybe he was fucking Ryne Sandberg’s wife. Or it could be something like this:
http://youtu.be/fxWE6pnuPzo
uncle daveQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
We did?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Heh, I guess I’m the only one who missed that little bit of scandal.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I thought that was pretty much common knowledge at this point.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I don’t remember it either, but “Dempster fucked his nanny” sounds a lot like something I could easily forget.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nanny Fucking Dempster Beans
Hip New Band
Stop! I’m insane.
joshQuote Reply
All Camelots Horses Carry Whores
The Good Lord Wants the Cubs to Win
Birkenstock Dream
The David DeJesus Insult Theory
joshQuote Reply
“Blindsided” sounds like a Creed-like jesus-rock band.
sitrickQuote Reply
The Ryne Sandberg Game feat. Rafael Palmeiro
Your Life Is Empty (“2008 Where Have You Gone”)
The Wrigley Explosion
Hipsters Never Know the Score
joshQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-20-13.html
MylesQuote Reply