The folks over at Blogabull have a post up about the biggest "What-If?" scenarios in the last 10 or so years for the Bulls. These hypothetical flights of fancy are quite a bit more vivid in basketball, where so much hinges the status of a handful of players, but it prompted me to think a little about the Cubs. The one question in recent memory that has always stood out in my mind is: "What if Ricketts had acted quickly and decisively upon taking ownership of the team?" One of the criticisms of Tom Ricketts that followed him from the business world is that he took his time in overhauling operations, waiting until well after it was evident that a change was necessary. I think it's fair to say that the same applies to his tenure of the Cubs, as he waited until midseason of 2011 to change regimes.
There are a lot of ways to go with this question, but I'm going to try to be very narrow in my focus. Let's assume that Ricketts had started the search for a new general manager prior to actually taking ownership of the team. He approaches Theo Epstein, who is quite happy in his Boston paradise, thank you very much, but would strongly recommend Jed Hoyer for the gig. Ricketts takes this idea seriously, and instead of joining the Padres, Jed Hoyer takes over for the Cubs and brings along Jason McLeod to run things on the amateur side. (Hey, this is my hypothetical. Don't like it? Make your own.)
I think it's fair to say that the front office's biggest disappointment since coming on was the implementation of the new CBA almost immediately after their hiring, and it's restriction of compensation picks and draft/international spending. Had they taken over after 2009, what might their big budget drafts in 2010 and 2011 looked like? Fortunately, we have some frame of reference here given that Theo and Jed were heavily involved in drafts for other teams.
2010: No Hayden Simpson!
I'm not sure what the Cubs draft would have looked like in 2010, but saying that Hayden Simpson would not have been a part of it is blatantly obvious. Would the team have opted for big bonus-seeking Zach Lee, whom they coveted in the trade talks for Ryan Dempster last year? Or would it have been eventual Red Sox pick Kolbrin Vitek? Maybe they would have reached for Anthony Ranaudo, knowing he wouldn't have been around in the second.
How about Padres second-rounder Jedd Gyorko at 65 overall? He would look good manning second or third for Cubs right now, and the Padres may not have been on him without Hoyer/McLeod pushing for it. Or would it have been Brandon Workman?
2011: Bullet Dodged?
I'm pretty confident in saying that 2010's draft would have looked a whole lot better (I mean, really: could it have been worse?). 2011? Maybe not. You see, in 2011 the Cubs actually spent money on the draft, shelling out for Javier Baez, Dan Vogelbach, and Dillon Maples, among others. The story goes that Jim Hendry caught wind that the new CBA was coming down the pike and convinced Ricketts to spend big (though I personally suspect that Ricketts himself may have been the driving force).
In 2011, the Padres picked second baseman Cory Spangenberg 10th overall, immediately after the Cubs took Javier Baez. And, frankly, I don't think Baez would have been a Cub if Hoyer/McLeod were running that draft. Relevant quotes:
McLeod said there were two players selected before Spangenberg the organization liked, though they essentially got the guy they wanted.
I'm going to assume those two players were Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, and one of the pitchers (likely Gerrit Cole), given this statement from Hoyer:
“He’s the second-best hitter in the country,” said Hoyer. “For a while, I thought he was our sleeper, but he hit his way out of that.”
And then there's this anecdote from McLeod:
McLeod had just scouted Baez, who played for Arlington Country Day, a Jacksonville private school that became a kind of barnstorming team after withdrawing from the Florida High School Athletic Association.
The competition was suspect and McLeod had no idea what he’d just seen, telling Hoyer: “I don’t know if this kid is going to be Manny Ramirez or not get to Double-A.”
Now, Baez is no sure thing (though, wow), but no GM on Earth is trading him straight-up for Cory Spangenberg at the moment.
Maybe you want to take the hypothetical further, and suppose that the Cubs would have started shedding older talent in 2010 and ended up with a higher pick. Would we be talking about the young infield tandem of Gyorko and Rendon right now? Would this front office even given a thought to Dan Vogelbach?
What are your all-time Cub "What-If's?"
Comments
I haven’t been paying attention, is Szczur a complete bust at this point?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yes. I guess if you were expecting anything more than a 4th/5th OF/injury dude. You would consider him a bust. And he may not even make that projection.
2883Quote Reply
What if Bartman let Alou catch that foul ball?
Meathead WaLiQuote Reply
josh wrote:
Szczur is a great example of prospect decay. In the Brewers’ system, people would be talking about how Szczur is plodding along, cutting his strikeouts down, and that he could still be the CF of the future (he’d also be #5-7 in their system). However, since he’s been a Cubs prospect for so long, and we have so many shiny toys, he’s essentially forgotten and also dumped on for not exploding. He’s still age-appropriate for AA, with a wOBA of .336, and he can still play CF probably averagely at the major-league level. He has an outside shot at being a starting CF in the next few years, and is probably a safe bet to see at least some time in the majors with some organization at some point. He’s just not an Almora, or a Soler, or even a Balaguert as far as sexy names are concerned.
MylesQuote Reply
I like the “what if the Cubs never signed Milton Bradley?” scenario, but mainly because that means I never have to see Milton Bradley in a Cubs uniform then.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
He’s shown absolutely zero power though. And I still question his On base ability going forward. His minor league numbers are even somehow WORSE than what Darwin Barney put up on his way through the system.
So unless we are clamoring for another Darwin Barney in the lineup. You can’t view Szczur as anything more than a spare part.
aaronbQuote Reply
Meathead WaLi wrote:
*closes laptop, heads to nearest liquor store*
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Myles:
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-search-answers-shin-soo-choo-could-be-game-changer
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I agree. That didn’t work out at all.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I don’t know about you guys, but I really thought that if the Cubs beat the Marlins in 03, then they would have won the whole thing. I felt like their pitching and hitting was too good in the playoffs that year and I just had this feeling that they would have won it all if they got there.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Right. Kind of what I was thinking. Everyone was talking about him last year, but it seemed like “relative to what?”
@ aaronb:
And yet, we have Barney in the lineup everyday.
joshQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Who the hell knows. They had the Marlins on the ropes and collapsed. Who’s to say it wouldn’t have gone thi same way in the next round? I felt like they were going to win it, but they might have found some other bullshit way to blow up.
joshQuote Reply
i didn’t follow the minors in depth back then – can someone explain to me what is so notable about the hayden simpsons pick?
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
i think this is free:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-preview/2010/2610039.html
GWQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Hayden Simpson was considered a 3rd-5th round talent. A guy who wasn’t even playing baseball at the division 1 level. He was a money saver pick who signed far below slot.
aaronbQuote Reply
iirc, Ryno almost hung himself that day
GWQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
He sucked.
joshQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
He was playing at Southern Arkansas State. I lived in Arkansas 4 years and I’ve never heard of it. For added perspective, the school is in the same town he went to high school in.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
that’s all circumstantial evidence, but I mean come on!
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
We need faget points back if I’m to contribute
Suburban kidQuote Reply
What if that line drive had missed Prior’s elbow?
EdwinQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
I said at the beginning of those playoffs that I feared two teams: the Marlins and the A’s.
Those teams took pitches and grinded out ABs and got starting pitchers out of games and that was where the Cubs had their biggest edge, in my opinion. Everybody was thrilled when the Marlins got past the Giants and I was fucking pissed and I’m still pissed at Jose Cruz Jr. for not catching a fucking routine foul ball.
It’s the Cubs and anything could have happened in a series against the Yankees with them traveling to Yankee Stadium with the ghosts and shit, but I was not scared of the matchup with them.
Now I’m fucking depressed. Thanks, GW.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I just drool a little when I think about all the extra draft picks the Cubs would have gotten over those 2 years Ricketts frittered away. They also might have gotten some actual value for guys like Lilly, Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, Dempster in trades for prospects if they had started selling sooner. Plus they never would have extended Marmol.
I wonder if Jed and McLeod would have had the gravitas to pull off such an organizational overhaul like Theo is attempting.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yeah, was gonna ask how long I’ve been asleep that I missed the departure of faget points.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
It was a bugged plugin that got scrapped in the server migration.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m sorry, that sounded like I knew what I was talking about, which is a lie.
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
If there’s anything to fault Rickets on so far it’s that. I still believe he should have come in and cleaned house and gotten someone. Maybe not Jed or whatever, but some forward-thinking people. It’s just agonizing that he waited that long. Honestly, I have to think they should have had a plan ready to go before they even bought the team.
joshQuote Reply
I would guess that Andrew Friedman would be the Cubs GM in this what if scenario. Ricketts clearly sought the best and I don’t think he was going to give the job to someone who had never really been GM. Hoyer was technically GM for a period, but it didn’t last long. The Cubs GM job is definitely not Theo’s and I’m guessing the other two aren’t part of the front office. I’d put my money on Ricketts convincing Friedman and his team to come to Chicago.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
You nailed it.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’d be down with Friedman.
joshQuote Reply
Apparently Cory Provus works for the Twins radio now. God I hate Jud Sirrot.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
partly this was an excuse to point out that the current FO wouldn’t have drafted Baez, but Friedman or someone else running the show would have been interesting, as well
GWQuote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/the-cubs-crowded-40-man.html
MylesQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I laughed for 5 mins about the liquor store comment. I was watching at Chili’s that night inviting everyone at the bar to celebrate at my house. After the game, I left without a word, drank half a bottle of Everclear, and woke up on the weight bench.
DanQuote Reply