Kris Bryant stands 6-5 and weighs 215 pounds. He was born on January 4, 1992 and was drafted out of the University of San Diego this year. He was the Cubs first pick (2nd overall) and was rated as the 3rd best draft prospect by Baseball America.
He plays 3rd base and es expected to be able to continue playing there, but there has been some talk of him later moving to right field. He's a big-time power hitter.
He was named the college player of the year by Baseball America after hitting 31 home runs. That's 10 more than the next most this year and was the most hit by a college player since 2003. Those 31 home runs were more than the combined team total for over 200 teams in Division 1.
Bryant obviously has massive power and though his walk rate was quite good in college, and acceptable as a professional. He was getting pitched around so often in college that the manager moved him to leadoff so he'd get one plate appearance per game that he'd be pitched to. He also struckout plenty in college and had a swing and miss bat according to some scouts.
Performance
Kris Bryant's walk rate was 7.5% between rookie league, Low A and High A. For a college player with the kind of bat Bryant has, you'd hope for a little better. It was under 5% in 62 plate appearances at High A Daytona. His strikeout rate as a professional was 24% in 146 plate appearances. There. That's the concerning areas of his game and I thought I'd get it out of the way because what he did offensively was awfully impressive.
In 77 plate appearances at Boise he hit .354/.416/.692. That's a Bondsian .495 wOBA and a wRC+ of 209. At High A Daytona (62 PA), he hit .333/.387/.719. That's a .491 wOBA and 212 wRC+. Overall, he hit .336/.390/.688.
He hit 9 home runs and added 2 triples and 14 doubles. His ISO was .352. The Cubs drafted and signed to the largest bonus of the draft a guy who can hit for a ton of power and he did just that in his first professional season.
Other than his college numbers, this is all we have to go on with regards to performance. I'm skeptical of some of the college numbers (walks) and even the power. He's obviously a power hitter, but it's not likely he's going to display the same kind of power. Not to mention, he was playing in leagues for much of the year that he should be dominating. He did just that and next year we'll know a lot more.
Scouting
Almost all the information is below is pre-draft. There's still a lot we don't know about Bryant, but at the same time, we do know quite a bit. He handled himself exceptionally well at High A, which is probably close to the level of competition he was facing in college.
Bryant has shown huge raw power since his high school days in Las Vegas, and has blossomed into college baseball's premier slugger. He posted a 1.081 OPS and nine homers as a freshmen, then a 1.154 OPS and 14 long balls as a sophomore, but he has taken his game to new heights as a junior, posting a 1.357 OPS and 25 home runs (seven more than any other Division I player) through 49 games. Opponents have pitched him very carefully, but he has remained patient, posting a 56-31 walk-strikeout mark. Bryant's best tool is his plus-plus righthanded power, allowing him to launch towering shots over the light standard in left field or hit balls over the fence to the opposite field. He has adopted a wider base and a simpler approach at the plate this year, and he has impressed scouts with his ability to turn on inside fastballs or go the other way with sliders over the outer half. His plate discipline and ability to consistently barrel up a variety of pitches make him a safe bet to be at least an average hitter, and many scouts think he'll be better than that. Bryant's arm gives him another above-average tool. His athleticism gives him at least a chance to stick at third, although he'll need plenty more repetitions to master the position. Some scouts project him as a prototypical right fielder. He has average speed and can be faster under way, and he has shown good instincts in right and center. — Baseball America
Bryant was a possible first-rounder out of high school — I had him ranked 29th in that draft class — but fell due to signability concerns and a middling performance in his senior year. He largely resolved the latter issue as a freshman for the Toreros, raking for three straight years now.
He sets up with a very wide base and has no stride, just a toe-tap for timing. It’s a quiet swing overall, with excellent hip rotation for power, but his bat speed is just average or a tick better and I worry about his contact rates when he’s consistently facing guys throwing 90-plus in pro ball. He can murder a good fastball but I’m not sure how he’ll react to better off-speed stuff in the pros.
Now a third baseman, Bryant may not stay in the infield at all — he’s most likely to end up in right field, but would probably be above-average or better there, and I think there’s a non-zero chance he stays at third, where he has plenty of arm and some athleticism but doesn’t have the quick reactions a third baseman needs.
He’s probably a low-average/high-power hitter down the road, with a ceiling of .260-.270 averages (and likely less) but 30-homer potential as well, and I expect him to go in the first five picks. — Keith Law
GW had quite a bit on him draft day so check that out.
Scott Miller had a great article about him too.
Tons of great things can be said about Bryant's ability. Players who can hit for that kind of power aren't common, but we probably shouldn't be writing him into the lineup just yet.
Outlook
Seeing as the Cubs front office has been deliberate with prospects, I expect Bryant to return to High A, but I also expect his visit there to be brief. I think by May we'll see him in Tennessee and there's a chance the Cubs could move him there right away. Where he starts will give us a better idea of when we can expect to get a look at him at Wrigley Field.
AA will be his first true test and it sounds as if the Cubs could move him quickly. It's possible, but unlikely, that we could see him late in the year. I would guess mid-2015 would be the earliest. There's not really any rush and he's had so little professional experience to this point.
I'd have Javier Baez atop the Cubs prospects list, but Kris Bryant would follow shortly after. I actually think Bryant has a bit more potential due to his fantastic power, but both of them are high risk players. If Bryant can stick at 3rd he's got superstar potential.
2013 Cubs Prospect Reviews
- Matt Szczur
- Trevor Clifton
- Trey Masek
- Logan Watkins
- Willson Contreras
- Corey Black
- Yoanner Negrin
- Tyler Alamo
- Marco Hernandez
- Shawon Dunston, Jr.
- Ben Wells
- Brett Jackson
- Armando Rivera
- CJ Edwards
- Dillon Maples
- Duane Underwood
- Zack Godley
- Justin Grimm
- Arodys Vizcaino
- Zeke DeVoss
- Jae-Hoon Ha
- Ivan Pineyro
- Alberto Cabrera
- Paul Blackburn
- Yasiel Balaguert
- Josh Vitters
- Rob Zastryzny
- Neil Ramirez
- Christian Villanueva
- Jeimer Candelario
- Juan Carlos Paniagua
- Arismendy Alcantara
- Mike Olt
- Gioskar Amaya
- Kyle Hendricks
- Jake Arrieta
- Jorge Soler
- Pierce Johnson
- Javier Baez
- Kris Bryant
Comments
sitrick wrote:
I could see that if he starts the season with the Cubs or comes up no later than early May. Even be called up a month into the season may be tough. I doubt they’d put him in the middle of the order right away and he’d probably have a hard time racking up the PA.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I almost finished saying that with “I don’t expect him to be called up until mid-June.” I’m aware that’s a bullish prediction and I DOOOOOOOOON’T CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARE.
Re: Bryant, on Fringe Average, Parks said if he were betting on the Cubs prospect to have the best career, his money would be on Bryant. Ceiling’s obviously not as high as Baez, but he felt like Bryant was a fairly high-floor talent.
sitrickQuote Reply
Bryant was the #2 pick, methinks.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I feel like Bryant has a higher ceiling due to the crazy ridiculous power, but that should probably be tempered a bit seeing as it was in college. Still, his ISO was absurd last season in limited plate appearances. He doesn’t get the same positional adjustment, but I doubt Baez sticks at SS. Certainly not for very long.
Interesting that Parks, who knows a lot more than I do, says it’s the other way around. I’d definitely give the higher floor to Bryant, but I think both plays are fairly risky due to their patience and swing and miss issues.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Fixed. That’s what I meant to write, but 3rd is what I wrote. Thanks.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think I got confused thinking about 2nd overall pick and 3rd best prospect. It’s easy to confuse me.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
FWIW, all the scouting I’ve seen has Baez’s power graded higher than Bryant’s.
sitrickQuote Reply
I think Bryant’s power is higher than Baez’, but that’s like saying a Murcielago is less powerful than an Aventador.
MylesQuote Reply
I would like very much for Bryant to stick at 3B, but if his bat is insane, I don’t really care where he plays.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Law had Bryant as a 70 now and in the future. I have a hard time believing that Baez has more power potential than Bryant, but that’s just my opinion.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Well, and the variations may be game power vs. raw power (Vogelbach gets graded as an 80 raw, but I saw only a 60 game grade because of his approach…just for example).
Baez gets put in the Gallo/Sano group as far as top raw power guys go, whereas Bryant doesn’t (at least I haven’t heard anybody say that). Bryant’s patient approach may give him more game power than Baez though. It’ll be interesting to see. I’ve only seen Baez in person, but as far as pure ability to hit the ball a staggering distance, it would be really shocking to me if Bryant graded higher than Baez. But as far as actual production goes, they’ll probably end up fairly similar, in my opinion.
sitrickQuote Reply
Bryant is going to get every chance to stick at 3B. He hasn’t proven he *can’t* do it, and we’ll deal with positional problems when we have to.
MylesQuote Reply
From the FA catcher discussion, do you think the Cubs are interested in Salty because they think they can get a #2 pitcher for something like Castillo + Alcantara? Or maybe even one year of David Price with a package around Castillo, Alcantara, +?
The Cubs may find it easier to replace Castillo’s production through FA than find a TORP.
Castillo and Alcantara may make sense for the Rays. They’ve got shit at catcher and Zobrist will be a FA in 2014.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
Duly noted and filed for review in October 2023.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/10/03/stay-classy-indians-fans-who-paint-their-faces-with-racist-caricatures/
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
cool.
sitrickQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
I don’t know. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cubs traded a good prospect or two for someone like Price. He has two years left before free agency, right?
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/yankees-won-cubs-shot-girardi-article-1.1474898
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Ya, you’re right.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
I thought I read somewhere that they were interested in bringing in more left-handed hitters and that’s why they might be interested in Saltalamfdohsfklh. Castillo also does show a somewhat pronounced platoon split over his career, so the two might be a good pairing. For what you’d have to pay, though, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t just bring back Navarro.
(Edit: Navarro is a switch-hitter but has not hit righties very well. If this is a platoon thing, I guess that rules him out.)
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ GW:
Weren’t we expecting them to not give the cubs permission?
dmick89Quote Reply
Cee wrote a really good piece on Girardi-to-the-Cubs: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/10/03/angi-is-girardi-the-right-fit-for-the-cubs-now/
Aisle424Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I don’t know why such a big deal is being made about this. After October 31st, Girardi can talk to whoever he wants.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
This is why I think Girardi’s just using the Cubs to get leverage on a better extension from new york.
sitrickQuote Reply
Svuem—->Royals coaching staff
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Usually teams allow their people to talk to other teams if the new job would be a promotion or they want them gone. Jed Hoyer wasn’t the guy the new owner wanted so he allowed them to. The Red Sox wanted Theo gone and probably would have fired him had the Cubs not asked to talk to him. Once they did, they took advantage of the situation.
The Yankees want the exclusive negotiating period. It’s like a free agent. After a couple weeks he can talk to all the teams, but not immediately when the postseason ends.
I still tend to the think that Girardi is using the Cubs as leverage. I can’t think of a reason the Cubs would hire the guy and I can’t think of a reason he’d take the job. He’s got the best manager’s gig in the game right now. He’s wearing Yankees pinstripes for more than half the year.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
Not to mention, once the calendar turns to November, the Yankees are moving on so it’s not like Girardi is going to be able to use the Cubs at that point to get a better offer from the Yankees. He would probably have less leverage because.
dmick89Quote Reply
What am I missing? Why are the Yankees suddenly going to be done with re-signing Girardi come November?
I get that the Yankees are doing everything they can to have exclusive negotiating, but if Joe is hellbent on hearing what the Cubs have to say, then it’s not like November 1st is the end of the world to have to wait.
I don’t even care if they hire him, but the Yankees denying access while he’s under contract for the next 28 days changes nothing if Joe actually does want to see what the Cubs can offer. If he’s using the Cubs as leverage, then it behooves him to wait and see. Joe loses nothing by waiting. The Cubs lose nothing by waiting. Only the Yankees stand to lose something, so they are delaying it as long as possible in an effort to get him to change his mind. But realistically, what are they going to do? If they want to pay him eleventy billion dollars to keep him, they can have him.
Aisle424Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I strongly disagree. He’s got media pressure and a team that’s not that good. I’d MUCH rather be the coach of, like, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
MylesQuote Reply
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/breaking/chi-chicago-cubs-mat-gamel-waivers-20131003,0,4226478.story
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
The Dodgers are probably 2nd, but they’re closer to the Giants, Red Sox and Cardinals than they are the Yankees. There’s just no comparison between the Yankees franchise and every other team. They’re the Yankees. They have more fans than any team in baseball. They have a billion championships and are a global brand. I don’t remember exactly what Joe Torre said at the time of the A-Rod trade with the Rangers, but it was a very telling comment on the differences between the Yankees and every other team.
Are the Yankees the best team right now? No, but that doesn’t mean it’s not the best job in baseball. If it was about being the best, the Cubs would be the worst job in baseball and every manager would avoid it like the plague. It’s among the best jobs and that’s why the Cubs manager’s job is held in such high regard by those who manage.
dmick89Quote Reply
Woo, Cubs get AAAA CIF Mat Gamel
MylesQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Why would the Yankees not move on at that point? He’s been there since 2008. If a decent raise isn’t enough to want to come back, I sure wouldn’t want him. I don’t see the Yankees getting tied up and negotiating with him if any other team is.
Not allowing your employees to talk to other employers when there is no promotion involved is pretty standard. If they do allow you to talk to them it should make you pause and consider waiting instead of getting involved. Only reason the Yankees should allow Girardi to talk to the Cubs is if they don’t want him back.
dmick89Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
There’s an opening in Washington, more glaringly
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Yankees offered Girardi a raise. If the Cubs are going to beat that while continuing to run out a shitty team I’ll be pretty disappointed.
dmick89Quote Reply
and to think 3 months ago you were our resident optimist
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I’m glad they picked him up. Probably won’t amount to much, but I like it better than most of their waiver wire adventures this season.
GWQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Is that really fair? The guy kept blowing out his knees. That’s like calling Mark Prior a AAAA pitcher (maybe a slight exaggeration, but you get my point).
Aisle424Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I just hope he takes it. It’s not like Girardi is a magic potion to cure everything and it will save hearing the narratives about him being “Cub’d” or some such bullshit.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Same here. I do think he’ll reach a deal with the Yankees before the end of the month. I don’t see him leaving New York and if he did, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take over for Tim McCarver.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Maybe he takes the FOX job and waits out the poor soul who manages the Cubs next.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Myles wrote:
I’m surprised that MLB let this transaction go through during the playoffs, what with all of the media attention it’s sure to draw.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Mwahahahahahaha
Dick Stockton and Bob BrenlyQuote Reply
Good luck in your search for a drummer, uncle dave
http://images.dangerousminds.net/uploads/images/drummerneeded1sdfsdfsdf.jpg
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
How’d you know I hate hippies?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Somebody should make a montage of Alvin pics with Badfinger’s Baby Blue.
dmick89Quote Reply
Fucking Cardinals
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yeah, but I’m actually hoping they win that series. I’m sick of hearing about bullshit Pirates fan suffering. Those fucks celebrate a Super Bowl all the time. If I didn’t hear a word about their suffering, I’d love to see them do well, but fuck ’em.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t listen to that shit. But I’m not rooting nearly as much for the Pirates as I would have for the Reds. I just don’t like the Cardinals.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Basically, if the Cubs weren’t in the playoffs (gosh, how could I ever imagine that?), this is the order of teams that I would mildly root for instead.
Reds
Brewers
Pirates
Giants
Nationals
Dodgers
This is not based on the current players or anything like that. More like, somewhere in the course of my baseball watching history I must have liked a player(s) on that team or something, because I don’t dislike them.
Some teams I’m just meh on – Braves, Rockies, Phillies, Mets, and the American League.
I dislike the Marlins, Cardinals, and have a tiny, not worth mentioning distaste for the Padres and Diamondbacks.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Somehow I just knew, but I had no idea you loved loud synths and tolerated primary color tie-dye.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’ll admit that I picked up a copy of “Straight Up” this week. Song’s been in my head for days.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yeah, you know, I actually saw Gary Numan play a festival a few weeks ago and he was pretty good. You never can tell.
Not really related, but there’s some fucking guy who teaches guitar out here who plasters “I TAUGHT THIRD EYE BLIND TO PLAY GUITAR 415-XXX-XXX” stickers on every light pole in San Francisco. There are so many awful things I can say about that, I just don’t know which direction to take it.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Gamel is a decent reclamation project to me. Would rather have him if healthy than Valmala.
Meanwhile if someone told me they weren’t rooting for the Cubs because the other pro Chicago teams had been winning in the last 20 years, my response would be wtf does that have to do with anything? Just because I root for the Cubs doesn’t mean I root for the Bears, Bulls, or Blackhawks (I don’t btw) or even care about those sports (hockey some, NFL meh til Dec, NBA never).
Lighten up dmick! (dying laughing). Though I guess by your criteria you were pretty upset about Cleveland losing to Tampa. Cleveland never wins anything.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Ever been to Pittsburgh? Or read about Pittsburgh sports? Maybe I should have said “every Pirates fan is a Steelers fan”.
Pittsburgh is not Chicago and Pittsburgh sports is not Chicago sports. It would be stupid to say what you suggested I’m saying except about Chicago because there are Cubs fans from across the nation. A large portion of their fan base couldn’t give a shit about the Bears.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I downloaded Baby Blue and have listened to it a few times. It is not the kind of song I usually like, but can’t imagine a time in which I won’t from this point forward.
The Alvin montage idea was something I had last night when I was putting together a slideshow in iMovie. When I got done I quickly made one of the dog with that song. If I had all kinds of time to look for good images, I’d do it, but I can’t imagine I’ll find that time to do something like that. I’ll probably forget about it tomorrow.
My initial thought was that I’d make one and then upload it to dmick89.com and put it in a video player. Then I realized all of it was a bunch of work for something that would make me laugh for 5 minutes.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/joe-girardi-rumors-thursday.html
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’ve seen more Cubs games in Pittsburgh than I have in Wrigley, but mainly because I lived only 2 hr from PIttsburgh for 2 years. Pirate fans are excellent. They are knowledgeable about the game, they respect other teams, they have, without a doubt, the BEST baseball stadium I have ever been too, if not the best in baseball. Most of the Stillers fans I knew didn’t give a crap about baseball, and still don’t. Most of the Pirates fans I interacted with were probably Steelers fans, but not as strongly as the Pirates.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
The Steelers have a larger fan base and many aren’t Pirates fans, but most Pirates fans are Steelers fans. Most are much bigger football fans because the Steelers are better and because this is America. I just don’t think they’ve suffered shit. Even if they aren’t Steelers fans it’s not like it’s been that long since they won it all.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Granted. 1979 isn’t that long ago. SK tells me that all the time. But they’ve been super bad during the drought. They only finished in the top half of the division twice. They finished last or 2nd to last 12 times. The Phillies from 1919-1949 were worse, one winning season in 31 years and last/2nd to last 24 times (OUCH) but 1949 was a long time ago. I’m sure Jason Stark has all the stats. A 21-year losing streak is a long streak.
Funny stat, in 2010 McCutcheon had the highest WAR on the team: 3.7. That year the team WAR was only 3.3. ha ha ha. Travis Wood had a higher WAR this year by himself. Even this year’s Cubs had WAR >25. Last year’s Cubs were 15.9 WAR.
Maybe the problem is that the segment of Stillers fans that are Pirates fans are the smart segment, but they are out-shouted by the obnoxious Stiller fans.
🙂
SVBQuote Reply
I’m just pulling your chain MB, for the most part.
I should say though that my experiences in PNC park with the Pirate fans there, even those under 25 were always positive. I wouldn’t hesitate to take my 6 year old there. Same with Atlanta (minus the chop). Smart, respectful, passionate fans. Far better than my more recent experiences at Wrigley, which were dominated by obnoxious losers. Detroit wasn’t far behind Wrigley. Maybe the problem is I-94.
SVBQuote Reply
In 1979 I was learning how to walk.
Dammit I’m old.
Oh, sorry other old guys who I’m not as old as.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
SK asked me to tell you, “You’re forgiven.” He’s busy trying to remember where he left his dentures.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
No, RC really is quite painfully old. At his age, being old hurts. By the time he gets to mine, he’ll be used to it, and it’s not so bad.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Dusty —–> unemployed
GWQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Who’s gonna be your avatar next season, SK?
SVBQuote Reply
Not to distract OV from bsaeball, but some interesting discussion on fighting in hockey.
http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/darren_dreger/?id=433262
SVBQuote Reply
In Dusty We Trusty
JonKneeVQuote Reply
[img]http://oi44.tinypic.com/24ayhhj.jpg[/img]
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’d rather have him than Girardi. I think Girardi kind of sucks as a manager.
dmick89Quote Reply
Is Dusty the only manager who gets hate mail, or is he the only one who talks about it?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I’m guessing he’s the only one who talks about it. I imagine Ron Washington gets his fair share of dipshit racists who take crayon in hand to let him know how he’s inferior to them.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
OK, but is he the only one who has had someone take a dump in his dugout spot?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Let’s see if I live that long first.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Yeah, Baker is also one of only three black managers. There’s been few of them and I’m confident they all received hate mail. I’d guess that only a small percentage of blacks who receive hate mail talk to the media about it. Bo Porter undoubtedly gets some too.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m glad Dusty talks about the hate mail. There is no reason to paper over it. He doesn’t overdo it. A public discussion about this type of thing helps improve sensitivity. Like the “it gets better” campaign.
SVBQuote Reply
I wonder if Dusty would come back to the Cubs….
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Agreed.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ SVB:
I doubt it and I don’t see this front office being interested. Then again, Girardi is more like Baker than people realize. I’d put Girardi in the bottom third of current managers. However, the reality is that there isn’t a big difference between the top and bottom.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Does anyone care enough about the Astros to know that Bo Porter is black?
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
I forgot he was their manager. I was going to say there were two and decided to look it up.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
How many wins do you think is the difference, maybe 1.4? [http://www.sportsstatswithjohn.com/the-tangible-value-of-mlb-managers/ This study shows the difference of some managers with 10 years of experience and shows that the best is +1.3% and the worst is -.4%. A span of 1.7%. 1.7% * expected wins (82?) is about 1.4. Just looked at the table, not sure if these are the best managers in the game] On the free agent market a win is what, $6M? So a top tier manager win value is ~8.4 M when compared to players. If you pay less than that for a top tier manager, then you are getting good value on the manager side compared to what the free agent market demands.
Is there a study like this for all current managers?
WaLiQuote Reply
This A-Rod suit against MLB is pretty ugly. Seems like this thing is gonna drag on and on, although his lawsuit makes some valid points. I actually have no idea whether or not those are things you can sue about though.
NateQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I don’t know of any studies and I think it’s very difficult to do. One of the most important things a manager can do is gain and keep the respect of his players. Sounds easy, but I imagine it is very difficult and, at times, impossible. If he can get his players to buy into what he’s doing, I think it’s probably going to improve performance. I don’t know for sure, but I’d guess it’s only a little bit and maybe it’s not even noticeable.
Dusty Baker was very good at this. I also think Dale Sveum did a fine job in that regard.
How much is the tactical shit worth? I’d guess it’s not a plus or minus win total. I would assume that all managers are negative when it comes to this. I hope the Cubs hire a bench coach who is more a statistician. That obviously won’t happen with Girardi, but you could have convinced a Dale Sveum to go along with that.
I don’t want the manager to always manage by the numbers. I do believe the manager and players can offer insight that can’t be found in numbers. I also believe that most of the time they are full of shit.
dmick89Quote Reply
Wow. Apparently Dusty Baker told the Reds GM (Walt Jocketty) to fire him instead of the hitting coach (saying the coach was not to blame).
dmick89Quote Reply
What? The mother didn’t notice when the girl got home and, you know, she fucking looked at her? What the fuck?
dmick89Quote Reply
Dave McKay ——> unemployed
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Nate:
It’s like MLB has a need to shoot themselves in the foot. That foot must be really sore. I hope they’re using Walt’s M60.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Sounds like he wanted out of town, or that at minimum, he’d be working next year with no extension.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Either the mother and grandfather have literally never looked at their own daughter/grandfather or something is just wrong here. How the fuck do you not notice? Forget the school. That’s an awful fuck-up, but the family should notice within about 1 second that they got the wrong child.
In fact, I think schools ought to do this more often to figure out which children they need to get out of the home immediately.
dmick89Quote Reply
SVB wrote:
Agreed.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Actually, I’m sure ALL managers get hate mail. Dusty didn’t actually say it was racist hate mail this time, although I don’t think he would have mentioned it if it wasn’t.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
It’s the grandfather, not the mother.
He just took whatever kid was given to him and dropped her off at the doctor’s.
Since she went to her own home, we have to assume the “grandfather” just left her at the doctor’s to make her own way home.
I wonder why the kid didn’t say “um, he’s not my grandfather”?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Reading between the lines, I get the sense that the motivation behind the firing of Sveum and the search for his replacement has more to do with man management and player development than it does with in-game management. Between the persistent comments regarding the young players (especially Castro and to a lesser extent Rizzo) coming from the front office, the silliness with Kevin Gregg, and the whole Cubs Way thing, you might get the impression that Sveum was a bit too much of a players’ manager for Theo’s taste.
I base this on pure conjecture and uninformed inductive reasoning, but it would not surprise me to learn that many inexperienced managers might give players a bit too much rope due to being not so far removed from being players themselves. Whether or not being a hardass is conducive to developing young players is an open question, and I don’t think we’ll ever be able to quantify the effect a manager has on player development due to the number of variables involved. (In fact, I’d expect the results to vary wildly from situation to situation. I feel like Ron Washington is a great match for a guy like Josh Hamilton, but maybe he isn’t for other types of personalities.)
If the clubhouse isn’t in order, one thing Girardi can bring to the table is the World Series ring on his finger. Whether it’s reasonable or not, a lot of guys will listen when he talks simply by virtue of his past success. He’s in the club, and that means something in a culture like baseball. I don’t think that’s the end-all as far as this decision goes, but I’d be surprised to learn that it’s not a factor.
This fact-free analysis has been brought to you by Sports Panties, your singing mammogram.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Sahadev trying to make sense out of the Cubs/Girardi Saga: http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/10/04/sahadev-sharma-dialoging-about-the-managerial-dialog/
Aisle424Quote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/shocking-news-that-is-shocking-banks-williams-to-appear-at-cubs-convention.html
Aisle424Quote Reply