It's the season of projections and they're all starting to come out or already have. About ten days ago I was looking at Javier Baez's page on Fangraphs and saw that Oliver projected him to have a .336 wOBA (109 wRC+) and 4.2 fWAR. Of course, about 15 runs of that was defense and from what we know, Baez isn't the most gifted fielder, but word last year was that he can stick at shortstop.
Other projections haven't been so kind. CAIRO projects .322 and 1.9 WAR. Then again, CAIRO is only projecting 385 PA and Oliver is projecting 600 for everyone right now. Surely that will be updated at some point. Two of the biggest projections are projecting league average or better seasons at the plate and considering position, a very good WAR from the recently turned 21 year old. That is impressive and makes one wonder whether or not he's ready for big league action at the start of the season.
We know there's very little chance that will happen. Maybe even no chance at all. Probably somewhere between little chance to no chance (closer to the latter). It also makes us wonder what position he should play and if that position is shortstop, what position Starlin Castro should play.
That's to figure out at a later date.
I'm having trouble buying the Oliver projection. It is projecting a 34% strikeout rate and only a 5.8% walk rate. Only the Astros (assuming this isn't the same guy who did The X-Files) Chris Carter struckout more than 34% last year among qualified players and he was worth 0.4 fWAR. Mike Napoli struckout over 32% of the time and was worth 3.9 fWAR, but he also walked in over 12% of his trips to the plate.
The closest in comparison may be Pedro Alvarez who struckout 30.3% of the time and walked 7.8% of the time. He was worth 3.9 fWAR at a lesser position. Move him to shortstop and you basically have Javier Baez's Oliver projection. Still, Alvarez walked more and struckout less.
Scout.com published their top 100 yesterday and since I'm not a member, I can't see the numbers. However, they had 3 Cubs in the top 20 and surprisingly, Albert Almora and Kris Bryant were ranked higher than Javier Baez. There's no reason to throw a fit and proclaim these rankings aren't right. They probably aren't, but that's just because it's so difficult to rank prospects.
It depends entirely on what the criteria is. If we're ranking based on highest ceiling, it's very difficult for anyone to argue the top ranked prospect in the Cubs system is anyone other than Baez. If it's the likelihood of reaching ceiling you probably put Bryant there. At least I would. Then again, I'm not as high on Almora as a lot of people are so maybe I should just take their word for it.
You don’t need a membership to see the top 100 list. Here are the Cubs, with positons:
#8 Almora (between Archie Bradley and Taijuan Walker)
#10 Bryant (between Walker and Kyle Zimmer)
#13 Baez (between Mark Appel and Miguel Sano)
#44 Edwards (between Hunter Harvey and Aaron Sanchez (!))
#53 Soler (between Austin Meadows and Allen Webster)
#80 Vogelbach (between Phil Ervin and Trey Ball)
#85 Johnson (between Blake Swihart and Josh Bell)
#88 Alcantara [listed as shortstop] (between Jonathan Schoop and Casey Kelly)
Almora is the 4th highest rated OF
Baez is the 4th highest rated SS
Bryant is the highest rated 3B
Edwards is the 27th highest rated P
Soler is the 9th highest rated OF
Vogelbach is the 3rd highest rated 1B (Singleton and Dominic Smith)
Edwards is the 43rd highest rated P
Alcantara is the 15th highest rated SS
MylesQuote Reply
Thanks, Myles. The page I saw made it sound as though I needed one and there was no way I was buying it.
dmick89Quote Reply
New aside: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/cubs-convention-aka-the-absolute-high-point-of-the-2014-season-this-weekend.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’m in a fantasy league with a bunch of Baseball Twitter people, and in a podcast discussion (I’m doing a podcast, @dipshitpodcast on twitter for details) with Brendan (@diarrhea), he mentioned that Jason Parks told him via DM that he thinks Baez could be Miguel Cabrera.
That’s completely insane, right? At this point with Baez’s approach it seems to me his ceiling for a career, if everything works out absolutely perfectly, is something like Soriano without the speed numbers.
Cabrera posted a 9.9% BB rate and a 21.6% K rate in his first full season at age 21. He’s had only one full season with a BB rate under 9% and other than that first full season has never posted a K% higher than 20.
I dunno. I feel like I’m as high on Baez as anyone, but that sounded crazy to me.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Not to mention, Cabrera’s minor league strikeout rate was only 16.4% compared to 24% for Baez. Cabrera also had a much better walk rate. To be fair, Baez has shown a ton more power than Cabrera did. In 1597 minor league PA, Cabrera hit 28 home runs. Baez has hit 53 in 916 PA.
Perhaps they can be similarly valuable if the strikeouts don’t get in Baez’s way, but I don’t think they’ll be that similar in how they got there.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m becoming more and more optimistic that Baez can stick at SS. If he can, I wouldn’t rule out all-star in his first full season. What that means for Castro is another story. I have no idea, but my guess is that if the Cubs think Baez sticks at SS they put Castro on the market.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m at work and not really able to compare; how do they compare if you take Cabrera’s under-18 numbers out of the equation? Given that Miggy was a J2 and Javy had to be drafted, I imagine Cabrera’s numbers look even more favorable in comparison.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
16.0% strikeout rate from 18 on (excludes only his age 17 season)
dmick89Quote Reply
8.1% walk rate so I’m a bit surprised by the comparison. Could you ask Parks more about that?
dmick89Quote Reply
Last night’s Justified was fantastic. I would watch an entire season of Dewey Crowe, Brothel Manager.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Sucks that next year is its last season. Maybe that can be the spinoff though FX doesn’t do that.
dmick89Quote Reply
I could watch an entire season on almost any Justified character.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ sitrick:
Dewey’s the best. The episode where he thinks someone stole his kidneys is so hilarious.
I was happy to see Loretta back this week too.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Elmore Leonard wrote that episode, didn’t he?
dmick89Quote Reply
sitrick wrote:
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t think he wrote the episode, but he did write another Raylan novel after season 1. I haven’t read it, but checked out the back cover last time I was at the bookstore, and it alluded to a prison nurse stealing organs.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
OR
Berselius wrote:
Like You CareQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I’ll see if Brendan can push him on it a little bit.
sitrickQuote Reply
So the Dodgers are about to give Kershaw the biggest contract ever, period. I was kinda hoping they’d get Tanaka and Cubs could give Kershaw all that money next offseason. The good side of this might be that it eliminates one of the major bidders for Tanaka. If he sees he’s not going to LA, maybe Chicago starts to look more appealing. /trying to remain optimistic
NateQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
She’s got a lot of Mags to her.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Weird. I had always remembered that one as one that Leonard wrote. Maybe it was another one of the great episodes that season.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Nate:
I doubt the Dodgers and their money factory are out on Tanaka even after dumping trucks of cash on Kershaw.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Last I saw said the Dodgers were still in on Tanaka though that could change once the Kershaw deal is finalized. They got money coming out of their butts so who knows?
dmick89Quote Reply
The Dodgers may have re-signed Kershaw and will still go after Tanaka, but the Cubs got a mascot and have a convention this weekend. Seems even to me.
dmick89Quote Reply
damn, what would their rotation be?: Kershaw, Tanaka, Grienke, Ryu, and then either Beckett, Billingsley, or some other dudes.
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Maybe they can trade for Felix.
dmick89Quote Reply
Berselius wrote:
Agreed, I’ve also got a soft spot for Tim. I’ve known so many dudes like him it always makes me laugh.
LukasQuote Reply
Nate wrote:
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Means nothing, but this tweet gave me irrationally happy feelings for a moment:
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
The Bears have had a great offseason so far, seeing that Jim Caldwell and Mike Zimmer are the head coaches for the Lions and Vikings, respectively.
MylesQuote Reply
LukasQuote Reply
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/cubs-sign-chris-coghlan.html
stop bitching. the cubs are working hard and being very active. just look, they’ve made another great FA signing.
NateQuote Reply
http://wp.me/p2gIH3-3Iz
New Shit
MylesQuote Reply