Bradley Woodrum and others on MLB Trade Rumors have spent hundreds of hours working on a way to predict Tommy John injuries. The Cubs risk factors are pretty good to look at for the most part.
Risk+: This is merely a representation of how far above average or below average the player’s risk is. Here, 0% indicates a league-average risk; 100% is 2x the league average; 200% is 3x, and so on.
Risk+ Rankings for Cubs pitchers
- Justin Grimm: 92%
- Hector Rondon: 56%
- Kyle Hendricks: 15%
- Brandon Gomes: s
- John Lackey: 6%
- Jake Arrieta: 2%
- Adam Warren: 0%
- Trevor Cahill: -29%
- Pedro Strop: -32%
- Travis Wood: -52%
- Jason Hammel: -63%
- Tsuyoshi Wada: -83%
- Jon Lester: -87%
- Clayton Richard: -107%
Those are some pretty good numbers. I'm actually surprised Arrieta isn't higher considering his workload increase and his odd delivery.
Comments
Ryno,
And then 6 minutes later, ProFootballFocus tweets this: https://twitter.com/PFF/status/702141595064410112
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno,
I like him a lot. Impact DE would help the defense a lot more than an EDGE or ILB imo. There’s quite a bit of ILB depth in FA that they use their cap space on.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
He’s so disruptive and versatile. I wrote about him here: http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/blue-star/Scouting-the-NFL-Draft-DL-DeForest-Buckner-369671681.html
5T, nickel 3T, 7T in heavy packages.
Don’t think he’ll be there past 7, though.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno, I don’t think there’s anyway he drops to 11. Would love to see him on the Bears though.
MuckerQuote Reply
Ryno,
Mucker,
I’m fully prepared for him to be taken at #10 considering the past two years with Leonard Williams and Aaron Donald.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
Mucker,
Donald has to be especially hard to take. He was arguably the best defender in the draft and a huge need.
The good news is that an upper-tier prospect will be available at 11. Maybe even an upper-tier defender.
RynoQuote Reply
This. I don’t even want to talk about this because it pisses me off so much.
MuckerQuote Reply
I thought he was the best player in the draft, not defender. I was telling everybody to remember his name back when he was at Pitt. He’s unblockable. His speed and strength are unbelievable. How many DTs have run 4.6 40s? It’s unreal.
If Bears can get any of Lawson, Jack or Spence, I’d be pretty happy. But they’ll get none of them because that’s the way it goes as a Bears fan.
MuckerQuote Reply
And somebody tell me why Paxton Lynch is a good prospect without using the word ‘potential.’
RynoQuote Reply
He’s tall and mobile?
MuckerQuote Reply
Mucker,
I tried to find my big board, but he was behind Clowney and Greg Robinson for me. Maybe Mack too.
Buckner, Bosa, Ramsey, Jack, Jaylon Smith and Nkemdiche would all be good at 11. Maybe Rankins and Dodd too.
Stanley, Tunsil and at least one of the QBs should ensure CHI lands a good defender.
RynoQuote Reply
Mucker,
Add “good arm,” and that’s about it.
RynoQuote Reply
p-value = 0.00 …. stats fail
Jerome WaltonQuote Reply
I feel like it needs a color system, and that it should have taken into account how high a pitcher raises his arm in post no-hitter celebrations.
MillertimeQuote Reply
That rating system is garbage. No mention of “Inverted W” anywhere. SMH
Wenningtons Gorilla CockQuote Reply
Ryno,
I love Smith but I can’t see the Bears drafting somebody at 11 that probably won’t even play this year. I doubt Smith will play and if he does, it won’t be until the end of the season.
Even worse, somebody like Lawson will be there for the pick but the Bears will draft Shea McClellin’s little brother or something.
MuckerQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
Speaking of which, I read somewhere that Hammel has been doing towel drills with Tom House this offseason. I’m expecting big things.
uncle daveQuote Reply
No word on whether Mack Newton is back in the fold, though.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Wenningtons Gorilla Cock,
Chris O’Leary is going to be pissed!
MillertimeQuote Reply
(dying laughing), someone made a How To Make A Baloney Sandwich fan post
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
And it was the most useful thing ever written on that site so Alvin naturally deleted it.
dmick89Quote Reply
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Did Yellon do one previously?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m sorry, but if you’re making the perfect bologna gameday sandwich, cheese should either be on it or not on it. It can’t be the perfect sandwich if it’s optional. It would be two entirely different sandwiches.
dmick89Quote Reply
Not to my knowledge, though he probably deleted it because he’d been working on the post for years and just couldn’t quite get it right.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
I forgot the story I heard from you guys but it was something like the Cubs not allowing him to take his own bologna sandwich into Wrigley…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
(dying laughing) all I did was ask where the bologna post went.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
JonKneeV,
It’s 2016 and you’re not banned from that place yet? Get busy.
dmick89Quote Reply
I fixed that dialogue box for Alvin. Someone should suggest the fix to him.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
does this happen on the other SBN blogs? Or is this his own special creation?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think they all that have capacity, but Alvin uses it more frequently than the rest of them combined it seems.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Seems Mr. Yellon needs an ass-stick-ectomy
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Fowler ———-> Baltimore 3/35
Cubs ———> Second round pick. I think.
berseliusQuote Reply
I wonder if Fowler would have taken 2/28 or 2/30. I think the Cubs are going to miss him in CF and leadoff. They’re still going to win a shitload of games so it’s not a big deal, but I was holding out a little hope they’d sign him. I worry about possible injuries to Heyward in CF.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I guess it’s more like this means the Cubs first pick is a second rounder. Can’t remember the new CBA.
berseliusQuote Reply
dmick89,
They could still go after Austin Jackson, who I’d be cool with.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
Yeah, Jackson would be a good pickup. Would be nice to know you have someone who can play a decent CF on an every day basis if something happens to Heyward.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Or, more likely, if something happens to Soler.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
But guys, Matt Szczur tho
Rice CubeQuote Reply
That was spring training last yr. he could afford to get his ass to Arizona but not shell out a few bucks for a bratwurst once he got tix.
MeQuote Reply
Me,
yeah but then he successfully lobbied to have the food ban lifted
https://bleedingbluecubbies.wordpress.com/2015/03/10/spring-recap-i-did-it-cubs-lift-outside-food-ban/
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
This.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I’m (dying laughing) that the Cubs Chicago hatchet man has Alvin on speed dial just to put out these hissy fits when they crop up. He called him personally! (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
http://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/jason-heyward-buys-david-ross-hotel-suite-for-every-road-game/ar-BBpUptN?li=BBnb7Kz
berseliusQuote Reply
I had forgotten that Heyward and Ross were teammates.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
Uh….
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
(dying laughing), I just assumed that linked to Alvin’s real post.
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
it’s pretty much indistinguishable except that it’s probably better grammar than the real site.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
Not nearly as many commas. Who runs that site? I only read a little bit so I’m confused. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
Probably KerrysOtherWivesOtherHusband
JonKneeVQuote Reply
dmick89,
i have no idea who runs it but it’s really fucking funny. the twitter feed is also very worthwhile.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
That’s better.
ceruleanQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo,
I’m in stomach pain I’ve laughed so hard at this
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
<blockquote> Also; by reeding this, you have been banned from Bleeding Blue Cubbies; You can still read the Important posts, but you can’tnot respond; please acknowladge that you have been banned;
(dying laughing)
Nate the old recalcitrant one from a long time agoQuote Reply
http://www.kob.com/article/stories/s4058044.shtml#.Vs5svBh4i1z
That’s pretty fucking cool.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have been inspired to coin a portmanteau: semicolonoscopy.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Coghlan ———-> A’s
Aaron Brooks ——-> Cubs (RH reliever)
Austin Jackson ——> Cubs?
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
I hope so because that trade really is not very likable from my perspective. I’d much rather have Coghlan for the likely injury that will happen to Soler than what they currently have after him. On top of that, they have enough bullpen depth. I know Coghlan isn’t valuable, but that’s all they could get?
dmick89Quote Reply
New Shit
http://obstructedview.net/cubs-trade-chris-coghlan-for-aaron-brooks-resign-dexter-fowler/
mylesQuote Reply
Wow. Fowler is back on a one year deal. Fuck yeah
dmick89Quote Reply
Why do the Cubs allow anyone to bring food into their facilities? Are they fucking Ravinia?
FrankSQuote Reply