Projecting the 2016 Cubs: Third Base

In Projections by berselius47 Comments

As was done in days of yore, dm and I are rolling out projection posts going into the season. We're not doing anything too complicated – just doing some simple averaging of the systems out there with some tweaks of our own if we see them. There will be inherent flaws in this – each system presumably makes different less than obvious assumptions, whether in terms of playing time, league environments, time spent at various positions, etc. But it's good enough to get an idea of what the systems expect and spark some conversation. The players' 2015 numbers are also included at the top of the table for reference.

This is the other easy position to figure out, playing time wise. Sadly we aren't likely to see much of Kris Bryant, outfielder this year.

Player Projection PA H 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA Def BsR WAR
Kris Bryant 2015 Stats 650 154 31 5 26 77 199 13 4 .275 .369 .488 .371 7.1 7.1 6.5
Kris Bryant ZiPS 658 148 28 5 29 80 199 14 4 .263 .362 .485 .370 2 *** 5.7
Kris Bryant PECOTA 600 137 26 3 31 67 184 11 3 .264 .357 .505 .379 1.1 1.3 4.8
Kris Bryant CAIRO 551 133 27 3 26 63 164 13 3 .275 .366 .506 .380 *** *** 4.6
Kris Bryant Steamer 632 150 29 3 31 70 179 11 6 .273 .360 .507 .373 3.8 1.7 5.7
Kris Bryant Average 610 142 28 4 29 70 181 12 4 .269 .361 .501 .375 2.3 1.5 5.2

What more can you say about Bryant at this point? The projection systems are projecting him to improve on last year's offensive numbers. The lower WAR total is basically just due to less playing time, as well as reasonable regression of defensive/baserunning value. If Bryant's PAs are reduced more due to rest than to injuries, which seems to be one of the Cubs big talking points going into the season, those numbers could see an even bigger bump.

When I first started putting this post together, I figured the Fowler signing knocked Sczcur's chance of making the roster to next to nothing and locked in La Stella. Now I am not so sure. He hasn't seemed 100% this spring and Kawasaki is seemingly proving to be a hit in the clubhouse as well as on the field. But let's leave it as La Stella for now, as I still think he's the best option. Baez could get some starts here as well.

Player Projection PA H 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA Def BsR WAR
Tommy La Stella 2015 Stats 75 18 6 0 1 5 7 2 0 .269 .324 .403 .317 0.0 -0.1 0.2
Tommy La Stella ZiPS 343 82 17 2 4 29 36 4 1 .267 .333 .375 .313 -3 *** 1
Tommy La Stella PECOTA 262 63 13 1 4 25 31 2 1 .269 .342 .380 .326 -0.9 -0.4 0.7
Tommy La Stella CAIRO 347 80 17 1 4 32 42 4 1 .259 .332 .361 .309 *** *** 1.1
Tommy La Stella Steamer 181 45 9 1 2 16 19 2 1 .277 .343 .380 .318 -0.9 -0.4 0.3
Tommy La Stella Average 283 68 14 1 4 26 32 3 1 .268 .338 .374 .317 -1.6 -0.4 0.8

 

Player Projection PA H 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG wOBA Def BsR WAR
Javier Baez 2015 Stats 80 22 6 0 1 4 24 1 2 .289 .325 .408 .315 2.6 0.3 0.5
Javier Baez ZiPS 526 120 22 3 22 31 152 18 6 .248 .301 .443 .330 -6 *** 2.3
Javier Baez PECOTA 263 58 11 1 13 14 85 7 3 .236 .286 .444 .324 0.1 0.1 1
Javier Baez CAIRO 495 111 24 1 19 29 153 15 7 .242 .291 .420 .310 *** *** 2.1
Javier Baez Steamer 325 75 14 1 15 19 91 8 4 .252 .302 .457 .325 -0.1 0.4 1.4
Javier Baez Average 402 91 18 2 17 23 120 12 5 .245 .295 .441 .322 -2 0.3 1.7

One other name to watch is Jeimer Candelario, who has been ???????????????? for the past year, posting a .386 wOBA following his promotion to AAA, slugging over .600 in the AFL, and now opening lots of eyes in the Cactus league. If the Cubs do need to get an upgrade somewhere at the trade deadline, I wouldn't be surprised if he is the centerpiece of a deal given that he's just slightly blocked at the big league level right now. But if he keeps this up and, DeRosa forbid, something were to happen to Rizzo or Bryant in the second half of the season I wouldn't be surprised to see him getting a good chunk of playing time. 

Baez and La Stella probably won't get much playing time at 3B, but let's call it 10% of the starts, which translates to about 75 PAs. Leaving Bryant's where it is and prorating their numbers, this results in the Amalgamated Third Base Projected WAR of 5.5 WAR.

 

Projections summary

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  9. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    2B Zobrist
    SS Russell
    3B Bryant
    C Montero
    LF Soler
    CF Baez
    1B Guzman
    RF Andreoli
    P Lackey

    Gotta love spring training, the Royals are using the DH and the cubs are not (dying laughing)

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  17. Millertime

    I actually kinda side with the White Sox on this one. It sounds like they just wanted LaRoche to cut back a bit.

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  20. Suburban kid

    Joe is apparently considering having Schwarber catch all of Hammel’s starts.

    The beat writer didn’t bother to say why, so I’m trying to figure it out.

    Just to give him a routine – something consistent despite only catching once or twice a week?

    Or because Hammel is a decent hitting pitcher, making the loss of Montero more palatable?

    Or because Hammel likes him for some reason?

    I don’t think it’s the last one, but who knows? Not me.

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  21. EnricoPallazzo

    Suburban kid,

    if you assume that schwarber is going to be a better hitter than montero, then wouldn’t you want schwarber catching the shittiest hitting pitcher?

    that aside, i figured that hammel or lackey are the most likely candidate for someone who doesn’t need a particularly experienced catcher (i.e. they know what they’re doing and neither one has a ton of movement on their pitches.)

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  22. Author
    berselius

    Suburban kid:
    Joe is apparently considering having Schwarber catch all of Hammel’s starts.

    The beat writer didn’t bother to say why, so I’m trying to figure it out.

    Just to give him a routine – something consistent despite only catching once or twice a week?

    Or because Hammel is a decent hitting pitcher, making the loss of Montero more palatable?

    Or because Hammel likes him for some reason?

    I don’t think it’s the last one, but who knows? Not me.

    My guess is that Hammel’s stuff is the easiest to catch. Though IIRC Schawrber’s defensive issues have more to do with baserunners.

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  24. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Fowler
    Heyward
    Rizzo
    Montero
    Candelario
    Almora (LF)
    Negron
    Alcantara
    Hendricks

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  26. dmick89

    Suburban kid: The beat writer didn’t bother to say why, so I’m trying to figure it out.

    Because Jason Hammel is the worst starter on the team so what Hammel wants matters less than what the other four would want.

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  27. Author
    berselius

    (dying laughing)

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  44. cerulean

    I hope to see many of these crooked-numbered innings when games matter. Keep the line moving and somebody will hit it out.

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  46. Rizzo the Rat

    berselius,

    Just once. First there was a bunt he let go to Rizzo (who threw it away), then there was a ground ball he fielded, but made a bad throw to first on.

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