As was done in days of yore, dm and I are rolling out projection posts going into the season. We're not doing anything too complicated – just doing some simple averaging of the systems out there with some tweaks of our own if we see them. There will be inherent flaws in this – each system presumably makes different less than obvious assumptions, whether in terms of playing time, league environments, time spent at various positions, etc. But it's good enough to get an idea of what the systems expect and spark some conversation. The players' 2015 numbers are also included at the top of the table for reference.
We'll go ahead and lump all the OF players together since there's bound to be plenty of overlap in the start distribution.
One thing that's been made clear in our lazy stat-gathering is that fangraphs defensive numbers factor in positional value but the projection systems do not, so I'm going to hand-wave things up to what I think they should be for the officially official projection. Only the finest of precision here for the oh-vee blag.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Dexter Fowler | 2015 Stats | 690 | 149 | 29 | 8 | 17 | 84 | 154 | 20 | 7 | .250 | .346 | .411 | .333 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 3.2 |
| Dexter Fowler | ZiPS | 574 | 126 | 22 | 6 | 13 | 71 | 127 | 14 | 6 | .255 | .352 | .403 | .340 | -8 | *** | 2.4 |
| Dexter Fowler | PECOTA | 613 | 131 | 25 | 6 | 13 | 76 | 145 | 16 | 6 | .249 | .348 | .393 | .332 | -8.4 | 0.4 | 1.7 |
| Dexter Fowler | CAIRO | 596 | 132 | 24 | 6 | 13 | 73 | 131 | 14 | 6 | .256 | .352 | .398 | .335 | *** | *** | 2.9 |
| Dexter Fowler | Steamer | 582 | 125 | 25 | 5 | 12 | 72 | 127 | 15 | 8 | .252 | .350 | .390 | .327 | -10.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Dexter Fowler | Average | 591 | 129 | 24 | 6 | 13 | 73 | 132 | 15 | 7 | .253 | .351 | .396 | .334 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 3.0 |
Fowler's defense looked better last year than it had in the past, but he's not exactly death to flying things out there. Of course, it certainly must be a relief playing center field in Wrigley rather than the open prairies of Coors Field and that stupid hill in Houston. Fowler's surprise arrival in spring training was the cherry on top of the Cubs amazing offseason.
That PA number seems about right from my guesstimates, somewhere around 80% of the starts in CF
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Jason Heyward | 2015 Stats | 610 | 160 | 33 | 4 | 13 | 56 | 90 | 23 | 3 | .293 | .359 | .439 | .346 | 16.4 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
| Jason Heyward | ZiPS | 613 | 149 | 29 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 104 | 18 | 4 | .274 | .352 | .433 | .349 | 6 | *** | 4.7 |
| Jason Heyward | PECOTA | 630 | 145 | 28 | 3 | 20 | 63 | 112 | 17 | 4 | .261 | .340 | .430 | .340 | -7.8 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Jason Heyward | CAIRO | 605 | 150 | 29 | 3 | 15 | 59 | 99 | 17 | 4 | .278 | .352 | .424 | .344 | *** | *** | 3.4 |
| Jason Heyward | Steamer | 660 | 164 | 34 | 3 | 18 | 67 | 100 | 18 | 8 | .284 | .362 | .449 | .352 | 15.2 | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| Jason Heyward | Average | 627 | 152 | 30 | 3 | 18 | 63 | 104 | 18 | 5 | .274 | .352 | .434 | .346 | 12.5 | 2.5 | 4.8 |
I still can't believe the Cubs actually did push to get the guy they wanted at the right time. It obviously had been the plan all along to go all out for a guy like Heyward, who is a day younger than Anthony Rizzo and as in his prime as it gets. The defense is of course the headline number, and I feel a lot better knowing he'll be patrolling right instead of center. He might help Folwer's numbers too, or allow Fowler to shade towards the Cubs shakier cadre of LFs. But you have to love that OBP too, especially since it looks like Maddon is going to bat these two back to back. My brain is still hard-wired to the baseline of the 2008 Cubs, who posted a .354 OBP as a team. (!!!!). Last year's Cubs posted an average-ish .320, with Toronto the best in the league by far with .340. Having those guys (and Bryant and Rizzo) at the top of the lineup most days is going to be fun. It almost makes me wish that I could see an alternate universe where the Cubs re-hired Dusty Baker, who puts Russell batting second every day. I do like Russell this year, but an OBP machine he is not.
I'm predicting Heyward picks up 15% or so of the CF starts, and 70% of the RF ones, with the Cubs giving him a decent amount of time off due to their plethora of bats needing playing time. It's not hard to see him get more though.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Javier Baez | 2015 Stats | 80 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 1 | 2 | .289 | .325 | .408 | .315 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Javier Baez | ZiPS | 526 | 120 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 31 | 152 | 18 | 6 | .248 | .301 | .443 | .330 | -6 | *** | 2.3 |
| Javier Baez | PECOTA | 263 | 58 | 11 | 1 | 13 | 14 | 85 | 7 | 3 | .236 | .286 | .444 | .324 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1 |
| Javier Baez | CAIRO | 495 | 111 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 29 | 153 | 15 | 7 | .242 | .291 | .420 | .310 | *** | *** | 2.1 |
| Javier Baez | Steamer | 325 | 75 | 14 | 1 | 15 | 19 | 91 | 8 | 4 | .252 | .302 | .457 | .325 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Javier Baez | Average | 402 | 91 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 23 | 120 | 12 | 5 | .245 | .295 | .441 | .322 | -2 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
We'll give Baez the other 5% of the CF starts. I think he'll be fine, spring debut notwithstanding.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Jorge Soler | 2015 Stats | 404 | 96 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 121 | 3 | 1 | .262 | .324 | .399 | .312 | -11.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| Jorge Soler | ZiPS | 385 | 90 | 21 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 105 | 3 | 1 | .261 | .327 | .455 | .335 | -4 | *** | 1.1 |
| Jorge Soler | PECOTA | 503 | 116 | 25 | 2 | 19 | 41 | 132 | 3 | 1 | .252 | .315 | .438 | .330 | -8.8 | -0.6 | 0.4 |
| Jorge Soler | CAIRO | 374 | 89 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 96 | 3 | 1 | .264 | .332 | .445 | .340 | *** | *** | 1.4 |
| Jorge Soler | Steamer | 474 | 111 | 23 | 2 | 17 | 39 | 119 | 4 | 2 | .260 | .324 | .440 | .328 | -2.6 | 0.4 | 1 |
| Jorge Soler | Average | 434 | 102 | 22 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 113 | 3 | 1 | .259 | .325 | .445 | .333 | -5.1 | -0.1 | 1 |
Soler's the biggest question mark for playing time, even aside from his past injury history. But there should still be enough PAs in the margins for him to get a decent amount of playing time, between Schwarber playing catcher, platoon decisions, and regular rest for Fowler and/or Heyward. I'll give him 25% of the starts in RF and 40% in LF. I'm not sure where I'd set the over/under for the number of games where both he and Schwarber start in the OF, but maybe the memory of last year's playoffs is too raw. Even if he looks about as mobile as Schwarber out there, at least there's nothing wrong with his arm.
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Kyle Schwarber | 2015 Stats | 273 | 57 | 6 | 1 | 16 | 36 | 77 | 3 | 3 | .246 | .355 | .487 | .364 | -3.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Kyle Schwarber | ZiPS | 586 | 128 | 22 | 4 | 32 | 65 | 157 | 4 | 2 | .250 | .337 | .496 | .358 | -9 | *** | 2.4 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PECOTA | 594 | 128 | 21 | 2 | 31 | 71 | 164 | 4 | 2 | .251 | .346 | .482 | .362 | -5.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
| Kyle Schwarber | CAIRO | 455 | 104 | 19 | 2 | 21 | 49 | 116 | 5 | 3 | .262 | .348 | .476 | .359 | *** | *** | 2.3 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Steamer | 533 | 122 | 21 | 2 | 25 | 57 | 133 | 5 | 3 | .261 | .345 | .474 | .353 | -0.7 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Average | 542 | 121 | 21 | 3 | 27 | 61 | 143 | 5 | 3 | .256 | .344 | .482 | .358 | -5.1 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
It looks like Schwarber is on track to be Hammel's personal catcher which gives him 20% of the starts there. I think the Cubs are commited enough to the catching thing that it would continute even if…something…were to happen to Hammel. *cough DFA cough*. The rest of the PAs would go to LF, probably 50% of the starts there. I can see a universe where Soler's defense improves this year…Schwarber maybe not so much. Though we're not talking Adam Dunn here or anything. If you're looking at that WAR numbers versus 2015, I think most of the projections above are pretty much Schwarber as a LF, so he's not getting the added boost of another 150 PAs or so at catcher. We can futz with that when we get to that projection.
One of the silver linings about this roster crunch is how great the Cubs bench will be. How awesome will it be to see Schwarber or Soler coming up in a key at-bat, rather than last year's usual options of Jonathan Herrera, Tommy La Stella, or, Derosa help us, Travis Wood?
| Player | Projection | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Def | BsR | WAR |
| Matt Szczur | 2015 Stats | 80 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 0 | .222 | .278 | .333 | .269 | -2.4 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| Matt Szczur | ZiPS | 482 | 110 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 29 | 91 | 20 | 7 | .249 | .300 | .345 | .296 | 1 | *** | 0.8 |
| Matt Szczur | PECOTA | 94 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 1 | .243 | .289 | .341 | .266 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Matt Szczur | CAIRO | 448 | 99 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 84 | 19 | 7 | .240 | .292 | .336 | .279 | *** | *** | 0.4 |
| Matt Szczur | Steamer | 114 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 4 | 2 | .248 | .299 | .344 | .284 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| Matt Szczur | Average | 285 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 54 | 12 | 4 | .245 | .295 | .342 | .281 | 2.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
I don't think Sczcur will be on the roster for most of the season, but with Baez out he's a nice luxury to have. Now that we're past the spring training roster crunch I think there's a good chance he passes through waivers if the Cubs do decide to option him, though if it does come down to him vs La Stella at least La Stella does have options the Cubs can use. If somehow he does stick with the team most of the year I wouldn't be surprised if he set some sort of record for games played vs PAs, as the Cubs have no real need to use him as anything but a defensive replacement.
Combining everything, it is a combined outfield WAR total of 11.2.
Projection summary
- Outfield: 11.2
- Second Base: 3.5
- Shortstop: 3.0
- Third Base: 5.5
- First Base: 4.4
Comments
Everyone knows Hammel will be part of the deal for Sonny Gray.
ceruleanQuote Reply
New pod should post around 11 tomorrow
berseliusQuote Reply
Can’t you guys see the Cubs starting 0-2 and a bunch of local guys writing clickbait articles on how the Cubs are overrated and it’s time to start worrying? I know I can.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
In a sick way, I kind of want that.
mylesQuote Reply
I would prefer best record to start the season, and if it weren’t for those first two heartbreaking loses, would have broken records in all if pro sports for longest win-streak to start the season. That probably won’t happen. However, I do think the Cubs’ chances of winning more games than the Warriors this year about 99.9999999%. Am I underestimating the chances of the apocalypse?
ceruleanQuote Reply
Cubs actually posted .321. Toronto plays in the American League. The Cubs are in the National League. The San Francisco Giants were best in the National League by far with .326. That <.005 difference may not look like much, because it isn't.
Everyone has read Moneyball, and everyone has learned the wrong lesson. It's not about OBP, it's about arbitrage.
umbraQuote Reply
I’d prefer less drama. I’d rather they get off to a 35-5 start and start planning for the playoffs come the middle of May. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
From GW last thread on over/under of Schwarber catching 20 games. I’m taking the over because I thought they said he’d be Hammel’s personal catcher this year. Are the Cubs first team ever with 2 pitchers who have their own personal catcher?
dmick89Quote Reply
If Contreras gets off to a good start in the minors this year, I’m not sure I’d bother a whole lot with Schwarber behind the plate. If it becomes clearer that Contreras will be taking over for Montero like we hope, I’d give up the Schwarber catching thing.
Am I the only one who still thinks Schwarber could be a decent defensive outfielder? Seems that a few games really changed too many people’s perception of his defensive abilities. In my opinion anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
Y…yes? He is not very spry.
umbraQuote Reply
agreed. he made some terrible plays but he also made some good plays. he’s not ever going to be a gold glove but he’s shown enough skill (at times) to give optimism, i think.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Also, I would enjoy registering for this website and have perhaps even done so in the misty past, but whenever I attempt to do so again, I’m told that access is restricted and that I have to log in first.
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
I don’t think he’ll ever be a good defensive outfielder, but I’m not convinced he’s going to be horrible either. From what I saw during the regular season, he was a lot better out there than I expected from someone his size and without any experience playing out there.
dmick89Quote Reply
umbra,
I’ll check that out.
dmick89Quote Reply
Regarding registering, I just tried it and didn’t have a problem. It’s possible my IP address is whitelisted. Is this the link that gives you troubles? http://obstructedview.net/wp-login.php?action=register
dmick89Quote Reply
I want the Cardinals to get off to a 5 game lead after 30 games of the season, and then for the Cubs to just go up 20 on them the rest of the way. Give that hope, and just kick them in the balls, all the time, forever.
mylesQuote Reply
Jeff, thanks a lot for publishing these. Great work on them. Sorry about disappearing after I got the spreadsheets together.
dmick89Quote Reply
myles,
I’m the opposite. I’d like the Cubs to start 35-5 and the Cardinals to start 5-35. I want the Cardinals to come to Chicago in the middle of the summer so far behind the Cubs that they start to get an idea what it’s been like for the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yes. I clicked the link you have in your comment, and it opens up a new browser tab and pops up with:
Authentication Required
The server http://obstructedview.net requires a username and password. The server says: Restricted.
User Name: ______________
Password: _______________
umbraQuote Reply
umbra,
This was meant to be more a comment at just how much the league environment has changed, and how my brain hasn’t adjusted.
berseliusQuote Reply
What’s great is that in either scenario the Cardinals suck, fail and lose.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89,
I sometimes see that when I try to login, though can’t remember the exact details or reproduce on my phone right now.
berseliusQuote Reply
I’d be cool with the Cubs just walking over and kicking all of them in the nuts, win loss record be damned (dying laughing)
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
You’re not the only one. I still look at these numbers and I’m thinking .340 is about average and an ERA of 3.5 is really good.
dmick89Quote Reply
umbra,
Now that I’ve had some coffee, IIRC it was when I tried to access /wp-admin directly rather than through the top toolbar
berseliusQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/ov-podcast-13-the-season-is-upon-us/
berseliusQuote Reply
umbra,
Thanks. I know what’s causing that, but I’m going to have to look into how to fix it without causing any other issues. It was something we added to keep bots out of the back end of the site.
dmick89Quote Reply
I think he’ll eventually play up to an average glove in left. He’s got decent straight-line speed for a guy his size, and he’ll get better with reps. It’s just tough to pass the eye test when you’re as big as he is.
uncle daveQuote Reply