How good is the Cubs rotation?

Player IP
Matt Garza 193
Ryan Dempster 188
Paul Maholm 165
Chris Volstad 155
Jeff Samardzija 122

The Cubs opening day rotation is set with news that Randy Wells and Travis Wood have been optioned to AAA. That left Jeff Samardzija and Chris Volstad to join Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Paul Maholm. Using our playing time projections and the average projections berselius has posted over the last month or so we can find out just how good (or bad) the opening day rotation is. There are other innings that will be pitched by starters, but these are our projecting innings pitched and we're standing by them. They look pretty decent to me.

That's a total of 7.9 WAR from the opening day rotation. It's a projected 823 innings. Over a course of a full season, starters typically pitch around 940 innings while the bullpen chips in around 505. So there's a little over 115 innings remaining to be pitched by the Cubs rotation. Those innings are likely to go to a combination of starter with Randy Wells getting the bulk of them.

To answer the question of how good the rotation is, they're a bottom third rotation. Some will say that WAR projection for Samardzija is unfair, but it's the projection. If you want to make some adjustments, go for it, but there are other things to consider too. Maholm had a terrible season last year. He lost something on his fastball and coming back from injury he may be no better than he was a year ago. Chris Volstad could easily be closer to replacement level.

Last year the Cubs paid roughly $40 million for their opening day rotation. This year they're paying them about $34 million. Considering the decline in production we expect, there's really no difference in the amount they're being paid.

Last season the Cubs got 8.8 fWAR from their opening day starters and two of them went down after their first start. Wells did return and threw 135 innings. The bulk of that WAR was from Garza and he and Dempster combined for 7.8, which is equal to what the 2012 Cubs are expected to get from their rotation.

With the remaining 115+ innings we could probably add up to another 1 WAR. That would give the Cubs a total of 8.9 WAR from their rotation this coming season. Last year they ranked 24th in baseball with 9.5.

177 thoughts on “How good is the Cubs rotation?”

  1. re: last thread…

    I think it’s fun to make fun of a player here and there but I don’t really bother booing anybody in person. Seems like a waste of effort.

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  2. Maholm had a 3.66 era last year. You consider that terrible?

    I’m not saying he can duplicate that here. But he could be a nice addition.

    The Cubs really need Demp to bounce back.

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  3. bubblesdachimp wrote:

    Every now and then Bubs thinks a producer should change the end of a movie to really troll the audience. Like let Voldemort win at the end of Harry Potter or let The A’s win the series.

    That’s basically what Tarantino did in Inglourious Basterds.

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  4. @ Tyler Smith:

    I like the signing. As for a terrible season that probably overstating it, but there are a lot of red flags. His velocity is 2mph slower than a couple years ago. His BABIP was 30 points less than the previous couple of seasons. his LOB% was a little higher and he allowed fewer HR/FB. Considering the injury and the peripherals he could be awful this season. I’m only making a point that if someone wants to add to one player or another you have to consider the downside too.

    I think Maholm is the 3rd or 4th best starter on the team (he or Randy Wells).

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  5. @ Tyler Smith:
    You mean to bounce back from having a higher WAR in 2011 than your boy Maholm? Dempster’s peripherals in 2011 were in line with his career numbers, across the board. The only aberrations in his line are his BABiP ( .021 over his career mark), and, accordingly his ERA. A lot of that has to do with terrible defense, which is borne out by the fact that Dempster’s 2011 FIP sat at 3.91. So Dempster doesn’t need to bounce back from anything; he just needs to pitch like he has been since the Cubs slotted him into the rotation.

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  6. @ mb21:
    When the trade went down, Brad wrote it up at Fangraphs and IIRC, he said Maholm’s FB velocity has been in decline since 2009.

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  7. Yeah, Dempster was essentially the same pitcher last year that he was in 2008-2010. 2008 stood out because of the sparkly ERA, but looking over the peripherals Dempster has been awfully damn consistent over the last 4 seasons. He’s older so I expect some regression, but he’s still a good pitcher.

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  8. @ mb21:
    Yeah, I dislike him because I think he’s a raging jackass, but he’s undeniably one of the best players in the team. I don’t have a clue why Cubs fans like to dump on the guy, unless they have just been horribly scarred by his terribly unfunny Will-Ferrell-Imitating-Harry-Caray-Imitation.

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  9. If Marlon Byrd gets traded (and depending on the return), the Cubs will not have an African-American player on the MLB roster for the first time since before Ernie Banks played for the team.

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  10. @ Mobile Rice:
    If he’s traded before Jackie Robinson Day, both Chicago teams would celebrate JRD without an African-American player on either roster.

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  11. Maybe if Jay Jackson started pitching better. Still, they have a bunch of Latinos, and one semi-Asian, so that should count for something.

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  12. @ Suburban kid:
    Yeah. Good question. Clevenger got caught in a run down. If he was trying to steal he got absolutely no jump. I suppose he could have been trying to lure the throw. In that case it worked and the Cubs used up the one time that play will work in spring training.

    I’m watching but the broadcast is the Angels or MLB so the vol is down. + my 5yr old is climbing on me so I might have missed a detail.

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  13. The Gameday has a replay. I guess it was a designed play. If they were going to do something like that they might as well do it when it doesn’t matter if they fail.

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  14. Mucker here……just got back from Pittsburgh and saw Van Halen in concert……unfuckingbelievable. On my way out of town, we stopped by PNC Park and that is one very nice ball park. I stood on the bridge behind the stadium and looking into the river and remembering that homer Colvin hit last year. What a fucking bomb that was.

    /cool story bro

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  15. @ Rice Cube:
    It’s a good play in a tight game against a really good pitcher when runs come at a premium, and you’re tied and near the end of the game…….. but otherwise, yeah, I hate giving up the out. Then again, if you pitcher or Joe Mather is on deck, why not?

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  16. Bob said he hadn’t always been comfortable with the new stats, but he now recognizes the importance of them and is looking forward to Len teaching him about them this season.

    They talked about WAR, so Len had to then explain replacement players. He did an OK job at that.

    Bob had a light bulb moment when Len pointed out how you don’t want to spend $5 million on a a guy that is just going to provide replacement level production. For some reason, when money was brought into it, it seemed to make sense for him.

    In other SABR news, Darwin Barney said how Sveumy told him to be more aggressive and that he’s not going to be taking pitches routinely in no-ball counts like he did last year.

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  17. Suburban kid wrote:

    They talked about WAR, so Len had to then explain replacement players. He did an OK job at that.

    He did use batting average and RBI as his example, though. Baby steps, I guess…

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  18. Suburban kid wrote:

    Bob said he hadn’t always been comfortable with the new stats, but he now recognizes the importance of them and is looking forward to Len teaching him about them this season.

    I’m sure his conversion is completely unrelated to his change in bosses.

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  19. @ Suburban kid:
    Did Bob, brooding, ask Len if he would have taken him in the 1st round, and when Len admitted he wouldn’t have, did Bob then knowingly tell him that his spreadsheets aren’t so bad after all? I assume that’s how all ex-players come to accept sabermetrics.

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  20. One time Len talked about OPS+ and he botched it a bit. He said that it was relative to the positional average, when it actually uses the average of all position players.

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  21. Suburban kid wrote:

    In other SABR news, Darwin Barney said how Sveumy told him to be more aggressive and that he’s not going to be taking pitches routinely in no-ball counts like he did last year.

    (dying laughing), somehow I don’t remember Darwin Barney being known for his selectiveness at the plate

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  22. @ Berselius:
    He did have a low swing% in 2011. Also, both the FG and pitchFX plate discipline #’s (not sure how accurate they are) say he swung at pitches out of zone at a higher-than average rate, while taking strikes at a below-average rate, so maybe Sveum has a point that he was too passive (which is not the same as being selective).

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  23. No WGN deal reached with DirecTV. Station will pull its content.

    I think the deadline was midnight tonight. Will be interesting to see what happens.

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  24. My expectations for Samardzija are substantially higher than yours, both on IP and WAR. In my mind, Casey Coleman is an average replacement player (WAR=0). Do you really believe Coleman is a better starting pitcher than Samardzija? Clearly, Dale, Theo and Jed don’t think so.

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  25. @ GW:
    I see what you mean, but I think Bob still works for someone on the business or marketing side of the team rather than baseball operations.

    The producer of the broadcast probably has something to do with how much new stats is appropriate for their audience. In the past, he likely resisted Len’s attempts to use them, but they probably see the audience getting a little younger and a little more used to this stuff. Also in a down year like this they will have far fewer casual viewers.

    Plus, the thing about Bob working on his manager resume for submitting to modern GMs.

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  26. @ Cubsin:
    Randy Wells projected to bounce back this season, as did Travis Wood. We’ll probably see one of those two guys up if Samardzija struggles, unless Wells is traded or something.

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  27. From Phil Rogers today

    Remember Kei Igawa? The little lefty who gave the Yankees two big league victories (and 83 minor league starts) for their $46-million investment is back in Japan after signing with the Orix Buffaloes. He was a model of commitment, if not a triumph for the Yankees’ international scouts. …

    (dying laughing) really?

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  28. @ Cubsin:
    K/BB ratio for both pitcher is 1.42 and 1.44. One of them has been as a starter and the other a reliever.

    FIP for both is 4.44. and 4.53. Again, one as a starter and one as a reliever.

    In the minor leagues…

    K/BB 1.88 and 1.63 (both mostly starters)

    FIPs of 4.12 and 4.49

    In every category above, Coleman’s numbers are the better ones. So yeah, based on what they have done in their careers, Casey Coleman is a better pitcher than Jeff Samardzija. That doesn’t mean he’ll be better going forward. Coleman may have transformed himself into a top of the rotation starting pitcher at which point it won’t even be close.

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  29. Cubsin wrote:

    My expectations for Samardzija are substantially higher than yours, both on IP and WAR. In my mind, Casey Coleman is an average replacement player (WAR=0). Do you really believe Coleman is a better starting pitcher than Samardzija? Clearly, Dale, Theo and Jed don’t think so.

    My expectations are higher too (though not *that* much higher). I’d bet a decent amount of money that he’ll beat his projections (at least for FIP/ERA, maybe not IP or value). But we have to make projections on what we know and in a common framework across all players, and this is what we have.

    As far as IP goes keep in mind that he’s never thrown more than 120 or so innings in a season. Even if he’s suddenly a much better pitcher there’s only so far he can go.

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  30. Cubsin wrote:

    My expectations for Samardzija are substantially higher than yours, both on IP

    I’m curious how many innings you think he’ll throw and I’m wondering if you think that will have a negative impact on his ability to perform after a certain amount of innings. The negative impact could be from the increased risk of injury or just ineffectiveness which we often see from young players in their first 162 game season. Below are his innings pitcher each full season in his career

    2007: 141.2
    2008: 131
    2009: 123.2
    2010: 130.2
    2011: 88

    I see no reason to think he’s going to pitch considerably more than that and if he does, he’s likely to either a) become a huge injury risk this year or next or b) be terribly ineffective over those additional innings. A terribly ineffective Jeff Samardzija scares the shit out me. I picture a guy on the mound not getting any batter out.

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  31. @ Berselius:
    I think he’ll beat his projection because it’s going to be difficult to argue someone who pitches as poorly as them belongs in a rotation. You could tell me Koyie Hill’s projected WAR is -.2 and I’d bet he beats it. For that matter, I bet any player with a negative projected value beats their projection.

    Pecota has F7 with a 4.91 ERA projection as a starter this year. Does he beat that? If we use that as FIP instead, I will be somewhat surprised if he beats that projection as a starter. I’d be surprised if he is lower than 5.2.

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  32. I guess my point is that there is no reason to think F7 can throw that much more than 122 innings. I’m thinking he’ll throw about 95 fwiw.

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  33. @ mb21:

    If F7 has turned a corner and stays in the rotation, my best guess is that he would be around a 4.40 ERA/FIP pitcher. Better than he was, but not really a world beater. But that’s purely a wild ass guess, not a capital P Projection.

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  34. @ Berselius:
    That’s about where I’d put it too, b. If league average is where it’s been the last couple years (4.00, right?), I would think 4.40 out of him in a rotation if he has improved. That’s 1 WAR over 140 innings.

    What I realized the other day on twitter is that there are some who think he might not only have improved to the point where he’d be a serviceable starter, but actually a good one. I had been assuming all along the debate was whether or not F7 could even become a serviceable 1 WAR starter. I can’t say anything to those who are thinking 2, 3 or 4 WAR. That would be one of the biggest career turnarounds we’ve seen and I see no evidence to suggest that F7 is going to be among those few.

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  35. @ Berselius:

    From the article

    Marlon Byrd, who scored a three-year, $15 million contract in January of 2010, hasn’t come close to the kind of numbers he produced during his three-year breakout tenure with the Rangers.

    3/15 says it all. He wasn’t paid to be a fucking superstar. He was paid to be a 1 WAR per season player and he’s been better than that.

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  36. @ mb21:

    I was surprised to see that over at HBT. I don’t have any expectation of sabermetric analysis over their but their usual writers (Calcaterra, Gleeman) aren’t dummies (this was written by someone else).

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  37. Per Muskat, the bullpen is down to 8 possibles (though most of these guys have a spot locked up)

    Marmol
    Wood
    Russell
    Dolis
    Camp
    Lopez
    Castillo
    Corpas

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  38. @ Berselius:
    I don’t see the Cubs changing their plans to buy that extra year of service time just to acquire a low B or high C prospect. I think Byrd will be traded at some point, but probably not until the trade deadline. I expect he’ll move to LF when Jackson comes up. That way if Jackson struggles they can send him back to the minors and just move Byrd back to CF until he’s traded.

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  39. The Marlins are hosting the Yankees in the new digs today. Gaby Sanchez hit a homer. I wonder if they showed that hideous sculpture going off in the replay.

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  40. @ Rice Cube:

    Yeah, I bet DeJesus gets benched/DFA’d before Soriano, and at that point, they either play Jackson in RF or shift Byrd over to RF.

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  41. @ Rice Cube:
    I’d like to think so. If new management can’t figure out which outfielders should play then there’s no reason to think this organization is in any way better than it was a year ago. If Jackson is called up and assuming the others play to their potential by that point, the decision to not play Soriano is a fairly obvious one in my opinion. I don’t see the Cubs DFA’ing him since it’s a lot of money, but they don’t have to play him that much.

    Seriously, if you give anyone a list that includes Brett Jackson, Marlon Byrd, David DeJesus and Alfonso Soriano and Soriano is somehow starting then they’ve failed. I know Sveum doesn’t appear to be the brightest man in any room he’s ever been in, but this is just too easy. Then again, not batting Barney at the top of the order vs righties is also a no-brainer.

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  42. It does seem like the Cubs front office is taking a laissez-faire approach here. I don’t know what Theo’s dynamic with Francona was but then again, Francona actually had good players and it probably didn’t matter how he set up his lineup. They probably figure that the one or two extra wins an optimized lineup will bring won’t matter, so what the fuck ever (dying laughing)

    It’s fun to imagine the Superfriends having an epic facepalm session after watching tape of Cubs practice games and reminding themselves that they are punting 2012 to rationalize it all.

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  43. I can see Reedz getting CF for a couple months if Byrd gets traded, with Campana on the bench till Jackson is called up in May/June.

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  44. @ Suburban kid:
    Career:

    Johnson, .753 OPS, 96 OPS+ (96 wRC+) -14.5 UZR/150 in CF, 10.7 fWAR
    Byrd, .759 OPS, 100 OPS+ (99 wRC+) -0.7 UZR/150 in CF, 17.3 fWAR

    Pretty fucking similar. Good call.

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  45. Byrd is better than Reed when you factor in Reed’s shitty ability to hit righties, but he’d be an adequate replacement until they call jackson up.

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  46. Rice Cube wrote:

    They’re probably equally grindy.

    Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    Career:

    Johnson, .753 OPS, 96 OPS+ (96 wRC+) -14.5 UZR/150 in CF, 10.7 fWAR
    Byrd, .759 OPS, 100 OPS+ (99 wRC+) -0.7 UZR/150 in CF, 17.3 fWAR

    Pretty fucking similar. Good call.

    mb21 wrote:

    Byrd is better than Reed when you factor in Reed’s shitty ability to hit righties, but he’d be an adequate replacement until they call jackson up.

    All of this is moot. We know that it’s impossible to compare players of different races. Clearly Johnson is grindy and Byrd is an athlete and/or a physical specimen.

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  47. Mercurial Outfielder wrote:

    Career:

    Johnson, .753 OPS, 96 OPS+ (96 wRC+) -14.5 UZR/150 in CF, 10.7 fWAR
    Byrd, .759 OPS, 100 OPS+ (99 wRC+) -0.7 UZR/150 in CF, 17.3 fWAR

    Pretty fucking similar. Good call.

    My lying eyes didn’t lie.

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  48. Not sure why they had Garza pitch in a minor league game today instead. It’s not like they need to make sure the Angels don’t gather too much info on him.

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  49. @ mb21:

    The OPS gap between the two there is still only .044. I don’t think there is a significant dropoff if Johnson has to play. They’re both pretty run-of-mill MLB OF.

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  50. Wait, Reed Fucking Johnson’s picture is on the front of the damn park? Would another fucking franchie use Reed Fucking Johnson as a selling point?

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  51. Recent years suggest that Reed should only play vs LHP while Byrd’s recent seasons suggest he’s still a slightly above average CF playing every day. That said, Reed is more than adequate a replacement for a few months or even a season if the Cubs were to trade Byrd prior to the start of the season. I’d still be very surprised to see that happen for two reasons: Byrd may actually be more valuable at the break if he has a decent start and you just don’t see regulars traded this close to the start of the season (usually).

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  52. @ mb21:
    Yeah, that’s pretty much my feelings. This roster is just so bad that the dropoff from the starter to his backup in most cases is almost nil.

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  53. You know, it would be so Cub to have a winning season with this awful roster. (dying laughing)

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  54. @ mb21:
    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/keith_olbermann_2012_previews_a.l._east

    Faint heart never won fair predicting contests. I’m convinced about the winner, and taking a flier on the runners-up. It’s possible one of the Wild Cards comes out of this division but I’m not convinced any more. The Yankees and the Red Sox are not locks, and they are so not locks that I will assume New York will finally suffer the kind of position-player calamity that accelerates its decrepitude. TAMPA BAY is your champion, TORONTO second, NEW YORK third (close), BOSTON fourth, and BALTIMORE should’ve been relegated already.

    Notice how he made the list before April Fool’s Day.

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  55. I could sort of see one of either TB or Toronto taking the second wild card but I don’t see how they could finish ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox…on paper, anyway.

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  56. Yaniel Cabeza. A gifted catch-and-throw receiver, Cabeza was signed at the same time as Silva but has advanced more slowly as he masters English. He broke an ankle in the Instructional League and was behind in spring training.

    I’m confident at this point that Phil Rogers stopped paying attention around April 15, 1947.

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