The Cubs have gone a little nutty in signing as many back-end of the rotation starters as they can find. They grabbed Scott Feldman who would be the worst starter in many rotations and the Cubs rotation is no different. They did sign Scott Baker though he's coming back from injury so we have temper expectations. Then they signed Carlos Villanueva, who hasn't been any good as a starter and pretty good as a reliever.
I decided to check out their CAIRO projections to see what they would combine to be. My thought was that they'd combine to be a little better than average and be projected to pitch a full season in the rotation (combined!). I was wrong.
| Pitcher | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| Scott Baker | 6 | 6 | 30 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 4.49 | 4.19 | 3.82 | 0.2 |
| Scott Feldman | 22 | 17 | 100 | 103 | 11 | 29 | 72 | 4.55 | 4.10 | 3.93 | 1.1 |
| Carlos Villanueva | 36 | 9 | 83 | 81 | 13 | 30 | 70 | 4.51 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 0.3 |
| Total | 64 | 31 | 212 | 214 | 27 | 68 | 167 | 4.52 | 4.22 | 4.20 | 1.6 |
It's worth pointing out that Villanueva is projected in the AL so those numbers would be slightly better in the NL. Then again, many of his appearances are as a reliever so those projections will only improve if he's used similarly to these projections. My guess with him is that he'll primarily be a reliever, but get some starts to fill in because of injury and perhaps ineffectiveness.
The group is slightly less valuable than Travis Wood's CAIRO: 166 IP, 1.9 WAR.
Interestingly, Scott Feldman no longer appears to be the worst starter on the roster so he's got that going for him. At least according to CAIRO anyway.
Comments
@ Aisle424:
I wouldn’t give up on Wood. At least not over guys like Feldman, Baker and Villanueva. If Baker is healthy and returns to form, he’s better, but it’s doubtful either of the other two are.
dmick89Quote Reply
But all three of them are better than any SP who appeared for the Cubs last year after Samardjiza was shut down.
cubsinQuote Reply
RC, I hadn’t checked out your blog for a couple weeks (been working on OV) and saw you’re looking for help to get rid of the black background. Shoot me an email and I’ll let you know how to do it. Really simple.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’d rank them:
Baker > Villanueva > Wood > Feldman
Needless to say, I’m not a Feldman fan.
GWQuote Reply
@ cubsin:
Yes, but the rotation the Cubs entered the season with last year is superior to the one they currently have.
dmick89Quote Reply
Like this, RC:
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
I think Baker is definitely better. I’ve never liked Villanueva. I looked forward to facing the Brewers when he was pitching. I’d put him ahead of Feldman, but not Wood.
dmick89Quote Reply
didn’t he get ~1/12 last year from the Nats? shows what one good season can do for you.
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
That’s sexy. I sent the e-mail, thanks for the help.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
No problem.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
1/$11 with $2 million deferred
dmick89Quote Reply
Villanueva’s been a swing-man his entire career, so the Cubs might be eyeing him in that role. Though I guess he wouldn’t be inking this deal if he wasn’t expecting to start.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Sounds like it’s 2/8.5 with a 6m option on a third year, or a 1m buyout
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, he reportedly was looking for a team on which he could make 30 starts. Definitely some upside in the deal if that price is accurate.
GWQuote Reply
Cameron was talking up Villanueva on twitter earlier today. I don’t get the love at all. I like him okay in the bullpen, but that’s about it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, as a guy who makes a few starts sure, but I don’t want him if he’s going to be starting 30 times per season. He’s been a terrible starter in his career and I see no reason to think anything will be different now. He’s older, he’s a fly ball pitcher and he’s pitching in a pitcher’s park.
I’d be surprised if he’s anything other than a swing man, which is what he’s basically been in his career.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m laughing at some of the things I’ve seen written about him while poking around. Basically people are saying he was great as a starter in toronto, there was just a few outings in the last two weeks that ballooned his ERA. Good thing stats in September don’t count (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
I don’t think Villanueva is a front end starter… but I’m not sure why you guys are so down on him either. He figured things out a little bit last year. He had a 2 month stretch as a starter that featured a 3.35 ERA and 72 strikeouts in 79 innings… in the AL East. That’s more than just a few good starts.
It will be interesting to see what happens with our rotation. If we sign Jackson, maybe Garza will be shopped. Or maybe Theo wants Wood to start in AAA and isn’t convinced Baker will be ready by April.
TylerQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=120&type=1&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=7,d
his periphs were actually better as a starter last year than as a reliever. he’s been flaky, to say the least, but I don’t mind taking a chance on a guy with K potential.
GWQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
What about all the other years he sucked? Those don’t count either?
Villanueva had a ton of promise as a prospect and looked to be a big future addition to that Brewers rotation, but it never happened and Villanueva just wasn’t very good.
I don’t mind the signing. It’s nice to have some guys like Villanueva around. I’d have preferred this to not be 2 years guaranteed, but whatever. It’s not my money and the Cubs haven’t exactly been trying to spend money wisely this offseason (huge overpay for Dioner Navarro, overpaid for Feldman and Baker). But they haven’t spent much money so big deal.
I’d not have offered more than $4 million for one year and if I had to go to 2 I’d have offered $6.5 million. I’d have added a team option for $100 million if it made Villanueva feel better.
dmick89Quote Reply
.476 slugging allowed for Villanueva as a starter in his career. .469 slugging as a starter last year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Maybe Villanueva is Spanish for Samardzija.
TRANSFORMED!!!!
Aisle424Quote Reply
When did MB21’s name change. Been out of the loop lately
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Wait, the Cubs signed Dioner Navarro?
joshQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I transformed a couple seeks ago.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Yep. Gonna be fun.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It’s certainly more believable that he could transform than it was for Samardzija. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121219223158.htm
GWQuote Reply
Jim Bowden says the Cubs are now the frontrunners for Jackson. The rumored deal is 4/52
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
This needs to be mashed up with the gif of Tyrion slapping Joffrey repeatedly (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
BerseliusQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
While some may be happy about this deal, it does make me want to punch someone in the face.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
lulz The Garza Twitter account is trolling again.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Some guy then tweeted at Garza and said not to jinx it in which Garza replied “I know something you don’t know.”
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
(dying laughing) Garza is such a gossip queen.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
He is smiling…because he is not left-handed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
“Cubs closing in on 4 year, $52m deal” according to Buster Olney.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I’d be happy with that.
WaLiQuote Reply
Not only is he a (slightly) above average pitcher, he has a higher OPS+ than our starting 3B, Vitters.
WaLiQuote Reply
Looks like the Villanueva deal is final…two years for $10MM.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Pick a logo and go with it, Mish.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://deadspin.com/5969910/the-15-best-peter-gammons-tweets-of-2012?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
BerseliusQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/carlos-villanuevas-contract-and-edwin-jackson.html
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
The 1995 logo is closest to the comic book logo that I enjoyed the most. The Nolan movie logos were pretty sweet too.
Rice CubeQuote Reply