The Cubs have avoided arbitration with another of their players. Last week they re-signed Luis Valbuena and they have now reached an agreement with Matt Garza for $10.25 million.
Cubs right-hander Matt Garza avoided arbitration and agreed to a new $10.25 million contract on Thursday.
Garza's representatives at CAA announced the new deal on Twitter: "#Cubs Matt Garza (@Gdeuceswild) agrees to a $10.25M contract to avoid salary arbitration." Garza himself revealed the contract on his Twitter account: "Business side over! Hooray! Time to focus on what really matters … 2013 #GoCubsGo"
The Cubs were expected to make a formal announcement on Friday.
Garza has always been a little overrated and $10.25 million is a bit much, but it's his final year of arbitration and he was going to get a raise.
I'm interested in what kind of value Garza has at this point in a trade. To keep things simple, let's start with CAIRO. It projects a 3.69 FIP over 150 innings, which is also 2.6 WAR. If the win value is, let's say, $6 million in 2013, that's $15.6 million in value. Garza's surplus trade value prior to the start of the season is $5.4 million.
We'll go ahead and write Garza in for 200 innings and bump the WAR to 3.5. That's $21 million in value and a surplus value of $10.8 million.
I think expecting 3.5 WAR from Garza is a bit of a stretch. Below are his WAR totals since 2008:
- WARP: 1.6, 2.2, 0.6, 3.7, -0.4
- fWAR: 2.9, 3.1, 1.6, 4.9, 1.2
- rWAR: 3.1, 3.3, 1.3, 2.5, 1.0
But the projections are the projections so we're using them.
Garza's value will decrease as the season goes on. If he's traded at the deadline, he'd only be expected to provide about 1.2 WAR the rest of the way while being paid $3.42 million over the final two months. That would give him a surprlus value of $3.8 million.
Comparing those values to this post on Beyond the Box Score, the Cubs probably won't get much in return for Garza at the deadline. I imagine it will be difficult to trade him before he shows he is completely healthy and I'm not sure spring training is going to get that done.
Comments
From the last thread:
Brooks Raley, LHP, Chicago Cubs
Bats: L Throws: L HT: 6-3 WT: 185 DOB: July 29, 1988
A sixth-round pick in 2009 from Texas A&M, Brooks Raley made his major league debut last summer, making five starts for the Cubs. He pitched adequately in three of those starts, but got knocked around in the other two, resulting in the numbers you see above. Raley is a four-pitch lefty, working with an 85-90 MPH fastball (averaging 88), a slider/cutter, a changeup, and a curveball. None of his pitches qualify as plus, resulting in a thin margin for error, but when he throws strikes he can be effective. He was tough on lefties in the minors and might transfer to LOOGY work. However, since he’s a very good athlete with a consistent delivery and good makeup, the temptation is to see if he can eat some innings as a fifth starter. The sabermetric case for Raley is a weak one, but for some subjective reason I think he might surprise us eventually with a Scott Diamond-like season. Grade C.
MishQuote Reply
Does this factor in GM stupidity and desperation?
I imagine that if they’re getting crap in trade, they’ll just give him the qualifying offer or extend him then.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
aside: http://obstructedview.net/major-league-baseball/us-roster-for-world-baseball-classic.html
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
No, but there’s less of that, especially now that a team who trades for Garza midseason won’t be able to cash in on a draft pick. That’s one thing that I think a lot of people overlooked with the new CBA: players traded midseason are worth less than they were before.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, if they can do better with a draft pick then that’s more than likely what they’ll do. It depends on how he pitches this year. If he starts out like he did in 2011 he’ll have more value. If it’s like 2012 and every other year, probably a little less value. Maybe some GM is desperate, but I wouldn’t count on that. Garza isn’t a great pitcher and there are likely to be better starters available at the deadline. Acquiring a player for 2 months with no chance of draft pick compensation makes a player much less attractive to the acquiring team these days.
dmick89Quote Reply
Damn it, MB, you got your classlessness all over me.
@ mike:
You understand that the Cubs Convention is the equivalent of a politician making a campaign promise, right, Mike? Cubs Convention isn’t where you go to get truth, you get very polished talking points designed to get you excited, whether there is actual good reason to get excited or not.
These guys will all be in the best shape of their lives! I’m going to spoil it for you, Mike, Stew is going to be just fine. I’m sure he’ll tell us so this weekend, so it must be true. I remember when Kerry Wood told us all his elbow problems were totally healed up at the 1999 Cubs Convention. We were all very excited about that as well.
By the way, BCB is that way —————->
Aisle424Quote Reply
/belatedly fixed
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
What the fuck did I do? (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
BP is free today
GWQuote Reply
mike, do you know someone by the name of ChicagoBearJew? If so, tell him we’d all love to chat.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
That dude needs to change his name. I didn’t read every word and was worried I pissed Aisley off. (dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Maybe the Cubs can try to package someone with Garza and try to grab back what the Marlins got for Sanchez and Infante, but Sanchez is better than Garza…they’d have to prey on desperation. I am still not sure what I’d think if the Cubs signed Garza to an extension.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
He didn’t call you classless or anything so you’re not up to 424 standards: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/muskat-work-in-progress-but-cubs-aim-to-be-competitive.html#comment-129095
dmick89Quote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
You’re cool. For now.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I had it read it twice because I was surprised you were the one being called classless. Thought for sure he meant me. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
It would depend on the extension. I wouldn’t want to go longer than 3 years, but that’s just me.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Yeah, but he defiantly got a cob in one of his holes.
I don’t know what that means.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I always enjoy the trade value analysis. Mostly because it’s a good reminder how many fans overrate their own prospects when they talk trades, and because then I get to write the word analysis, which always makes me giggle.
EdwinQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
He’s a big fan of Schierholtz and Stew. That’s for sure.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Do NOT google image search “Cob in holes”
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
I get the feeling Mike doesn’t think we’re “true” Cubs fans. I would think that by writing on this blog and the others for several years that we would have to be true Cubs fans. Otherwise, why the fuck would we do this?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Because you’re a masochist.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I also wonder if what happens to guys like Lohse and Bourn will influence the Cubs to trade Garza. There’s got to be a deadline for a team to get their former free agent signed by someone else to get that comp pick so they might run the risk of Garza either accepting the offer, him leaving without getting anything in return, or nobody signing him until after such a deadline and the Cubs still getting nothing. I think they’ll think hard about trading him in the spring even if it’s difficult. It’s quite a gamble but with an elbow injury and not being sure which Garza shows up…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Because you’re ironic Cubs fans?
Aisley’s comment yesterday about people who attend the Cubs Fest unironically (sp?) got me thinking whether or not there were ironic Cubs fans. People who root for the Cubs because it is so lame. (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Wait, this is a Cubs blog?
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
Of course it is! Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to comment about Fake Dead Girlfriends.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
I’ll admit that I attend the convention non-ironically. Or at least as non-ironically as I’m capable of doing anything. My whole family goes and we have fun.
Although in years past I’ve always worn my Milton Bradley shirt. Not quite as funny anymore.
The WreckardQuote Reply
Getting back to mlb.tv and ways around blackout restrictions, couldn’t you use a VPN? My IP right now says I’m from Amsterdam.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
who do you connect to?
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
It’s an app. vyprvpn: http://www.goldenfrog.com/vyprvpn
I get it free with a usenet provider I’m signed up for. Actually, they just released the Mac version yesterday so it’s new on my Macs. I’ve used it on Windows before and am glad they finally have a Mac version.
dmick89Quote Reply
I would think it would work with mlb.tv, but I don’t really know.
dmick89Quote Reply
As for late 2011, it works: http://vpnfreedom.com/netflix/how-to-avoid-mlb-blackouts/
dmick89Quote Reply
If Dave or anyone else wants to look into VPN providers, here’s a good comparison: http://www.vpn-providers.net/
dmick89Quote Reply
The Wreckard wrote:
A rare sincerity in this post-literal world. You are a true Cubs fan, The Wreckard.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Has anyone who shat on Bagwell for his physique looked at pictures of roided-up Lance Armstrong?
This is why it’s just as possible that Alfonso Soriano was a “juicer” as it is Frank Thomas. Witch-hunting douche bags.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
His eyes scream roid rage.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
Completely forgot about Hipster Ricketts.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
LANCE SMASH
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
I know. It’s so painfully obvious to anybody that size doesn’t mean steroid usage. It takes a fucking idiot to think it does. Sure, it could be because of that, but it might not be. Small guys use the shit too. It’s ridiculous.
dmick89Quote Reply
I have been way out of the loop so I don’t know exactly what Lance Armstrong used but I’m guessing epo was one of them:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erythropoietin#Blood_doping
If he didn’t actually take a steroid or HGH then I doubt he’d get monstrous huge.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t know exactly either, but I know epo was involved. I thought I read about steroids and HGH, but who knows? I really could not care less about this Armstrong nonsense. He’s an adult. He can do whatever the fuck he wants to his body. As for him being a piece of shit, well, he is a professional athlete…
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
He sold wristbands, MB.
WRISTBANDS. He must suffer.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
It’s kind of depressing to think how many people will stop donating to support cancer research now that the figurehead of a major charity is supposedly a douchebag.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I mean, it makes you wonder about Lance. Did he use drugs to beat caner too? What a phony.
EdwinQuote Reply
Good band name.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
meh, I agree with the point but I don’t think the comparison works at all. Doping in the tour de france is all about increasing the number of red blood cells in your body. any combination of drug/workout program that added extra weight would be eschewed because carrying extra weight on a seven hour bike ride through the mountains isn’t a great idea.
in baseball, for hitters at least, adding weight in the form of muscle mass is the point.
GWQuote Reply
Edwin wrote:
Back in SK’s day, if you got cancer you just did pushups until you sweated it all out. Then you said “thank you sir, may I have another?” and downed a full bottle of scotch.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://chicagosidesports.com/an-artistic-rendering-of-a-cubs-fans-wet-dream/
I admire the optimism.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Holy shit, I’m out of it for a little while and you guys start defiantly shoving cobs in your holes? What the fuck, people?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
The world doesn’t stop while you’re off building guitars and killing fake girlfriends, Josh.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Today in the “not everyone sucks” news pile:
Hiding the long-ass URL to a story about a Reddit pic
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
You forgot “Playing Words with Friends” which is mostly what I do these days.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I challened MB to a game, but he afeared my spelleng skillz.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
What’s funny, to me, is that I didn’t mean to misspell “challenged”
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
What’s funny to me is that apparently the rest of us have gone home, so you are left conversing with yourself (dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
Yeah, but I’m used to that. Many of these comment threads feature me saying 5-6 things to myself before finally realizing I’m talking to myself and quietly turning off my computer and sitting alone in the dark contemplating where I have gone wrong.
joshQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/18/sammy-sosa-talks-to-hbts-automated-twitter-account/
MishQuote Reply
josh wrote:
(dying laughing) I’ve never played and only downloaded the game because an old friend challenged me to a game. I declined that one and didn’t feel bad. I felt really belt when I declined your invite so I had to email you to apologize. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
F7 ——-> $2.64m next year (plus incentives)
BerseliusQuote Reply
This is truly the most important thing to happen in the world today:
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/introducing-beers-above-replacement/
Jed Jam BandQuote Reply
@ Jed Jam Band:
False. It’s the nonstop news on that cheater cheater pumpkin eater.
dmick89Quote Reply
Just out of curiosity, by why would an incumbent president need to have a second inauguration ceremony?
And c), even if there is a need for a swearing in, do we really need a repeat of the pomp and circumstance?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
/one sentence
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…
Apparently the Cubs did try to get Justin Upton, but didn’t want to give up Castro. This appears to have been post-extension.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Prop Joe ———> RIP
dmick89Quote Reply
Earl Weaver ———> RIP
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl-4FSRYagc
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Huh, I was hoping that would imbed. What happened?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Youtube started using https rather than http so it doesn’t really work anymore.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kl-4FSRYagc
dmick89Quote Reply
leave out the https:// part of the url. That worked on that one.
dmick89Quote Reply
More Earl Weaver:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-6RYPRlqZk
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
And, yes, that segment was not an actual blooper since it was never intended to air, but it’s still fun.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I wasn’t sure if any of you were keeping up, but some of the crew went to the Convention and tweeted a lot. I’ve compiled the stuff re: Wrigley renovations if anyone is interested:
http://worldseriesdreaming.com/2013/01/19/wrigley-renovation-plans-from-the-cubs-convention/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
A person would have to think that this front office is retarded if they’re going to pass on a superior player in the draft just to take a pitcher. It’s about overall talent.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
This is pretty big news, is it not?
GWQuote Reply
brett has more details, including renderings.
the dugout batting cages seem like a big deal to me.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
It’s a huge deal. The Cubs are basically giving the city the deal of a lifetime if Chicago lets them do whatever they want within reason. Jed Hoyer was pretty brutally honest about how shitty the facilities were. An expanded clubhouse and more batting cages is definitely big.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
http://lakeview.patch.com/articles/photos-wrigley-renovation-to-cost-300m-take-5-years#photo-13025774
Aisle424Quote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/cubs-signed-jeff-samardzija-and-james-russell.html
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GW:
You can check out where the servers of each vpn service are on http://vpnpick.com/
JessicaQuote Reply