I was curious how much a win costs, so I crunched some numbers for last year. I based thin on Cot's contracts information with no idea how accurate that information is, but I figure it's close enough for my purposes.
| team | league | W | L | payroll | cost/win |
| WSN | NL | 98 | 64 | $92,534,929.00 | $944,233.97 |
| CIN | NL | 97 | 65 | $87,826,167.00 | $905,424.40 |
| NYY | AL | 95 | 67 | $209,792,900.00 | $2,208,346.32 |
| SFG | NL | 94 | 68 | $131,355,298.00 | $1,397,396.79 |
| OAK | AL | 94 | 68 | $52,873,000.00 | $562,478.72 |
| ATL | NL | 94 | 68 | $93,529,667.00 | $994,996.46 |
| TEX | AL | 93 | 69 | $120,836,000.00 | $1,299,311.83 |
| BAL | AL | 93 | 69 | $84,102,333.00 | $904,326.16 |
| TBR | AL | 90 | 72 | $63,627,200.00 | $706,968.89 |
| LAA | AL | 89 | 73 | $151,381,000.00 | $1,700,910.11 |
| DET | AL | 88 | 74 | $133,475,000.00 | $1,516,761.36 |
| STL | NL | 88 | 74 | $111,858,500.00 | $1,271,119.32 |
| LAD | NL | 86 | 76 | $105,419,833.00 | $1,225,812.01 |
| CHW | AL | 85 | 77 | $97,669,500.00 | $1,149,052.94 |
| MIL | NL | 83 | 79 | $98,150,833.00 | $1,182,540.16 |
| ARI | NL | 81 | 81 | $75,417,833.00 | $931,084.36 |
| PHI | NL | 81 | 81 | $172,093,902.00 | $2,124,616.07 |
| PIT | NL | 79 | 83 | $51,932,333.00 | $657,371.30 |
| SDP | NL | 76 | 86 | $55,621,900.00 | $731,867.11 |
| SEA | AL | 75 | 87 | $84,928,100.00 | $1,132,374.67 |
| NYM | NL | 74 | 88 | $94,508,822.00 | $1,277,146.24 |
| TOR | AL | 73 | 89 | $83,739,200.00 | $1,147,112.33 |
| KCR | AL | 72 | 90 | $64,001,725.00 | $888,912.85 |
| MIA | NL | 69 | 93 | $101,628,000.00 | $1,472,869.57 |
| BOS | AL | 69 | 93 | $175,249,119.00 | $2,539,842.30 |
| CLE | AL | 68 | 94 | $64,430,300.00 | $947,504.41 |
| MIN | AL | 66 | 96 | $100,435,000.00 | $1,521,742.42 |
| COL | NL | 64 | 98 | $81,135,571.00 | $1,267,743.30 |
| CHC | NL | 61 | 101 | $109,316,000.00 | $1,792,065.57 |
| HOU | NL | 55 | 107 | $60,799,000.00 | $1,105,436.36 |
| Avg | 81 | 81 | $1,250,245.61 |
So the average was $1.2M, with Oakland easily paying the lowest rate, $0.56M per win, among both playoff makers and others. Pittsburg was the most efficient loser (thank you Andrew McCutchen and cost controlling!) Tampa Bay and San Diego were the next two most efficient losers. The least efficient among winners were the Fuckin' Yanks(R) by a wide margin, with Boston and Philly leading as the least efficient losers (though not as inefficient as the Fuckin' Yanks(R)).
It might be interesting to look at the 5-year trend as well, but I don't have time at the moment.
| team | W | WAR | PAR | WAR efficiency |
| WSN | 98 | 50 | $80,534,929.00 | $1,610,698.58 |
| CIN | 97 | 49 | $75,826,167.00 | $1,547,472.80 |
| NYY | 95 | 47 | $197,792,900.00 | $4,208,359.57 |
| SFG | 94 | 46 | $119,355,298.00 | $2,594,680.39 |
| OAK | 94 | 46 | $40,873,000.00 | $888,543.48 |
| ATL | 94 | 46 | $81,529,667.00 | $1,772,384.07 |
| TEX | 93 | 45 | $108,836,000.00 | $2,418,577.78 |
| BAL | 93 | 45 | $72,102,333.00 | $1,602,274.07 |
| TBR | 90 | 42 | $51,627,200.00 | $1,229,219.05 |
| LAA | 89 | 41 | $139,381,000.00 | $3,399,536.59 |
| DET | 88 | 40 | $121,475,000.00 | $3,036,875.00 |
| STL | 88 | 40 | $99,858,500.00 | $2,496,462.50 |
| LAD | 86 | 38 | $93,419,833.00 | $2,458,416.66 |
| CHW | 85 | 37 | $85,669,500.00 | $2,315,391.89 |
| MIL | 83 | 35 | $86,150,833.00 | $2,461,452.37 |
| ARI | 81 | 33 | $63,417,833.00 | $1,921,752.52 |
| PHI | 81 | 33 | $160,093,902.00 | $4,851,330.36 |
| PIT | 79 | 31 | $39,932,333.00 | $1,288,139.77 |
| SDP | 76 | 28 | $43,621,900.00 | $1,557,925.00 |
| SEA | 75 | 27 | $72,928,100.00 | $2,701,040.74 |
| NYM | 74 | 26 | $82,508,822.00 | $3,173,416.23 |
| TOR | 73 | 25 | $71,739,200.00 | $2,869,568.00 |
| KCR | 72 | 24 | $52,001,725.00 | $2,166,738.54 |
| MIA | 69 | 21 | $89,628,000.00 | $4,268,000.00 |
| BOS | 69 | 21 | $163,249,119.00 | $7,773,767.57 |
| CLE | 68 | 20 | $52,430,300.00 | $2,621,515.00 |
| MIN | 66 | 18 | $88,435,000.00 | $4,913,055.56 |
| COL | 64 | 16 | $69,135,571.00 | $4,320,973.19 |
| CHC | 61 | 13 | $97,316,000.00 | $7,485,846.15 |
| HOU | 55 | 7 | $48,799,000.00 | $6,971,285.71 |
| Avg | 81 | $3,097,489.97 |
Taking some liberties with terminology here, "WAR" is simply WINS-48 (what a replacement team might produce) ane PAR is Payroll above Replacement (payroll – $12M, an estimate of what a replacement team might cost). Bean now looks like an even bigger genius, and Sori an even bigger albatross.
Comments
So if you were to do this in terms of WAR$ do you just set the baseline at 48 wins and then see how much it cost to get each win above that baseline?
Rice on busQuote Reply
very interesting and yet another method of pointing out how shitty the cubs were in 2012. also a way of finding a silver lining to houston’s awful season.
i found this earlier today. not sure if it’s real or not but it’s pretty amusing.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I think league minimum last season was $480k so that means a full replacement level lineup would be $12mm.
Rice on busQuote Reply
@ Rice on bus:
For sure, this is a surface analysis borne of boredom.
joshQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
It sure does make Billy Bean look like a fucking genius.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice on bus:
One thing to remember is that teams are made up of pre-arb players making peanuts, arb players earning well below their market value and free agents paid more than they are worth. A free agent win costs a lot more than the others. Say you’re a 70 win team and have to sign free agents to get to 90. It’s going to cost about $100 million to add those 20 wins.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah, there’s a sharp cost disparity. And teams who think they can contend spend more per FA win. Then there are the albatrosses on the inefficiency side. Bean is really good at managing both.
joshQuote Reply
I’m going to put in an update with RC’s suggested numbers, for sake of argument
joshQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I was going to edit the same information in but it said you were editing your post. 🙂
MylesQuote Reply
New shit
http://obstructedview.net/facepalm/daily-facepalm-3-5-13.html
BerseliusQuote Reply
If you use 49 wins/12 million as the baseline, you can see that the two best GM’s in baseball occupy the first two spots:
OAK 908k per marginal win
TBR 1259k per marginal win
Last place?
BOS 8162k per marginal win
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
For what it’s worth, I don’t think those Cot’s numbers took into account all the salary obligations that moved from Boston to LA at the deadline.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I used 48. Also. Pittsburgh isn’t too far behind Tampa in terms of efficiency, which is surprising to me.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Good point. The situation is fluid. It would be nice if teams released financials as well.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Why no comments?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
He doesn’t want the peasants conversing.
WaLiQuote Reply
The new shit should have commenting turned on now.
http://obstructedview.net/facepalm/daily-facepalm-3-5-13.html
Aisle424Quote Reply