For pitching, I'm going to break it down into more easily-digestible bunches. For this version, I'm going to look at the Cubs in 2012 and then the people most likely to make the team (for Opening Day) in 2013.
| Last Year | 2013 | Career | ||||||||
| Name | Age | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | pwFIP | ERA | FIP | ||
| Samardzija | 28 | 28 | 174.2 | 3.81 | 3.55 | 3.97 | 4.10 | 4.04 | ||
| Wood | 26 | 26 | 156.0 | 4.27 | 4.84 | 4.60 | 4.22 | 4.22 | ||
| Volstad | 26 | 21 | 111.1 | 6.31 | 5.11 | 4.09 | 4.87 | 4.61 | orbit | |
| Maholm | 31 | 20 | 120.1 | 3.74 | 4.14 | 3.96 | 4.26 | 4.18 | ATL | |
| Garza | 29 | 18 | 103.2 | 3.91 | 4.17 | 3.73 | 3.84 | 4.00 | DL | |
| Dempster | 36 | 16 | 104.0 | 2.25 | 3.43 | 4.08 | 4.33 | 4.22 | BOS | |
| Germano | 30 | 12 | 64.0 | 6.75 | 4.33 | 4.28 | 5.27 | 4.65 | orbit | |
| Rusin | 26 | 7 | 29.2 | 6.37 | 4.85 | 4.68 | 6.37 | 4.85 | ||
| Jackson | 29 | 31 | 189.2 | 4.03 | 3.85 | 3.73 | 4.40 | 4.26 | ||
| Villaneuva | 29 | 16 | 125.1 | 4.16 | 4.71 | 4.14 | 4.26 | 4.43 | ||
| Feldman | 30 | 21 | 123.2 | 5.09 | 3.81 | 3.95 | 4.81 | 4.56 | ||
| Baker | 32 | 21 | 134.2 | 3.14 | 3.45 | 4.13 | 4.15 | 3.95 | 2011 | |
Jeff Samardzija is the de facto ace of this staff. All 5 of Fangraphs' projections has him sliding in FIP, and I might agree with them. When the FANS projection slates you for 3.72 coming off of 3.66 and 3.55 (albeit 2011 was in relief), something is a little wonky. He's been getting lit up in the Spring, but he says he's just working stuff out (he actually said he threw a belt-high fastball down the center of a plate so a dude could hit a home run off him, so he could work with empty bases (or something like that). He's a good bet to be a solid #2 rotation guy.
Travis Wood is scary. He looked bad last year and he was actually really lucky by FIP-standards. He doesn't have a great fastball and he doesn't change speeds well: his FB last year sat at 89.4, his changeup at 79.6. He's a pitch-to-contact guy who had an obscenely low .244 BABIP last year – unless some part of his kit has drastically improved he is going to get rocked this season. A team with 2012-vintage Wood getting 20 starts is a team that loses over 90 games. In an ideal world, he'd be a LOOGY (wOBA of .279 against lefties).
Chris Volstad was a total disaster last year. He struck out less than 5 people per 9 innings. You can do that if you are an incredible pitch-to-contact type that induces groundballs: Volstad is not that guy. His LD% has steadily risen over the past 5 years. According to Pitch f/x, he didn't have a single league-average pitch last year.
Paul Maholm started the year of really poorly but became a solid starter for most of the year. The Cubs traded him for Arodys Vizcaino, and that move will probably work out for both teams (a definite win-win for both sides at the time of the trade – Maholm had another year of cost-control).
Matt Garza could have possibly netted a Top 50 prospect at one point, if not more. At this point, the best the Cubs could probably hope for is a Christian Villanueva-type. He might sign a team-friendly extension, or a prove-it deal with the Cubs, but if the injuries didn't make him a vastly inferior pitcher, he's still a large injury risk for whatever team ends up with him. It sucks, but that's the truth.
Ryan Dempster had an incredible run with the Cubs last year. Shenanigans with the trades aside, he ended his tenure with the Cubs as a generally good player. He wasn't very good for the Rangers after the trade, and he's not going to like it in Boston either.
Justin Germano has played parts of 7 SEASONS despite sporting a career ERA of 5.27. He is the very definition of a replacement-level pitcher and played like one for the Cubs. That might be a little harsh given his freakish strand rate and .339 BABIP, but at some point you have to realize that you are giving 12 starts to a 30-year old non-prospect with no future in your organization and move on. The Cubs have.
Chris Rusin is not very good. He was another guy who just had an awful strand rate last year (64.7%) which points to either an inability to pitch from the stretch or variance. We'll probably see which it is, unfortunately, because the Cubs don't have many backup options before they get to Chris "I can give you 5" Rusin.
Edwin Jackson is this year's big FA acquisition. He's probably going to give you 190 innings of slightly-above-average pitching, which is just fine by me. He's a #3 on an average team, which means he's probably our second-best pitcher depending on how you feel about Garza, and his contract and age will still be fine when the Cubs are a good team again. He did lose a mile from his fastball last year, but he lost a mile from all of his other pitches too, so I'm not incredibly worried that he's suddenly incredibly hittable. It'll be very interesting to see if he can keep down his LD% like he did last year.
Carlos Villanueva isn't very good. He was hit-lucky and strand-lucky last year, and those worked in concert to mask a year that wasn't as rosey as it looked. He's an ideal 5th-starter/swingman type, and he'll likely occupy that role with Chicago this year.
Scott Feldman was the anti-Villanueva last year. He FIPed 3.81, but had an ERA of 5.09. He left only 61.0% on base, and his BABIP went from .239 the year before to a fairly-high .318. If he repeats his peripherals from last year, he'll be just fine, and he's got the stuff to work as a 4th of 5th starter on an average team.
Scott Baker is a huge injury concern. If he comes back at the level he used to pitch at, he could be a great steal for the Cubs. However, he signed with the Cubs, so he'll probably spend half the year on the DL, and the other half doing his best Chris Volstad impression.
All in all, the Cubs will at least have more depth than last year. That was a serious, serious problem last year (on the order of 5-10 wins lost to sub-replacement pitching), so we've improved pretty drastically in this area. However, we are still basically average at this point.
Comments
http://youtu.be/MFZG8KQJni8
uncle daveQuote Reply
Re: Travis Wood
I thought most pitchers have a difference of around 10 MPH between change up/fastball. Just looking at starters last year that threw between 88 and 90.4, only a pitcher (Chris Capuano) had a difference over 10. I agree his change-up is a bad pitch, which is not good for a lefty, but I’m gussing movement/deception on the change is more the problem than velocity.
EdwinQuote Reply
I think Volstad is a Rockie now.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Agreed. He is on the NRI list for Colorado, and Germano is on the NRI list for Toronto.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
This can be considered good news for the Cubs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I forget: Does NRI stand for Not Really of Interest?
SVBQuote Reply
One more thought from me on the subject of the previous thread. That site’s name does start with Rant. We are probably expecting too much if we want logic, analysis, etc. Those things aren’t consistent with “rant.” Anyway, it seems they have one thing going for them: Truth in Labeling. We should know better, just like a Jew probably wouldn’t buy something labeled “kosher pork.”
Plus it would be nice if the Yardbarker ads on the right didn’t include that drivel. Although I do like how right now on my screen the Yardbarker ribbon has “OV: Rant Sp writes stupid stuff on the internet again” and two below is the RS baloney about Sandberg being the Cubs next manager.
SVBQuote Reply
I forgot about Germano. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ SVB:
Non-roster invitee, but yours could be considered a synonym (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Pretty much. Non-roster Invite.
Javier Baez is probably the most interesting NRI this year. Any person on the 40-man roster shows up at MLB spring training camp. The other 25 or 30 who show up are NRIs, which are mostly minor league lifers.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Indeed.
@ SVB:
Indeed.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Anyone watching US v DR? I’m just wondering what kind of crowd they drew in Miami, and which team has more fans.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
No idea, but having watched some Caribbean Series games, I can promise you that even if the Dominican fans are outnumbered 10-1, they will be louder than the US fans. Every time I go to a Caribbean Series game, I feel like I’m at a (far, far more interesting) futbol game.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I haven’t turned it on yet, but I’ll go out on a limb and say it will be one of the most attended games at Marlins Park all season.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
http://youtu.be/PO1oUY6HS90
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
The announcer fellow just said “Technically a sold out crowd”, whatever that means….There are a lot of Domican fans in the crowd, and the freaking horns are getting quite annoying.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
Why not have fan voting for the US roster in the WBC? Fans vote for 8 starters, 5 starting pitchers and the manager picks the rest.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Because fans don’t know shit?
But seriously, do you want your favorite players playing that competitively that early in the year? Bully for Rizzo for playing for Italia, but it makes me nervous that one of the Cubs few stars was playing that hard that soon.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
mikeakaleroy wrote:
I don’t really care about the WBC so whatever, but I don’t think Spring Training is about getting into shape anymore. These guys are in shape year round. Maybe they’re not hitting baseballs or doing fielding drills all off-season, but they’re working out and staying more than in-shape enough to play baseball. Spring Training started so that guys who were working jobs as truck drivers and shit like that during the off-season could get back into shape, but that’s just not the case anymore.
The only ones I worry about are the pitchers and they are on strict pitch count restrictions, so even that risk is minimized.
I just don’t think we had anything to worry about with Rizzo. And if someone gets hurt, chances are excellent he was going to get hurt sooner or later anyway.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I understand what you’re saying, and it makes sense, but maybe I’m just thinking of the possible backlash if Castro would have tweaked his hamstring playing in the WBC or Stewart’s quad injury (Not that he’d get voted to the WBC anyway).
All I’m saying is I’d rather have the Cubs players getting ready slowly in Mesa, and the Cardinals players getting into baseball shape at an accelerated rate for the WBC.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I’m sure there would be backlash, but Castro and Stewart getting hurt early in Spring Training pretty much illustrates the point that these guys are probably going to get hurt anyway whether they are playing WBC or not.
The backlash would come because of the assumption that they got hurt because they’re not in game shape, and I think that’s crap. These guys are pretty much ALWAYS in game shape and even if they aren’t, if they know they are playing in the WBC they sure as shit will get in game shape before they start. They’re not going to sacrifice millions of dollars by putting themselves in a situation where they can get hurt easier. I just don’t buy it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
wut
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
BY THE POWER OF GRAYSKULL
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=25730441&partnerId=as_mlb_20130315_6404314&topic_id=31426364
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
@ GBTS:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWY9S-uKU-4
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Except Johan Santana
SVBQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Wow. Ricardo Montalban. (sp?) And no crushed Corinthian Leather.
SVBQuote Reply
Almora broke his wrist. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Don’t you think that they’d be physically pushing themselves harder during the Classic than they would be in a split squad game against Arizona State? I still think there’s a difference between in shape and game shape, and while I agree these guys are lifting weights and running all offseason, I guess I don’t know how many of them are trying to beat out a close play at first by pushing themselves just a little further.
My point is yes, they can get hurt either place, but I’d think because of the competition that the Classic brings with it, there’d be more of a chance of pushing yourself too far past the game shape your body is in, that early in the season.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
And a good fucking morning to you too.
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
BerseliusQuote Reply
This is a pretty wretched starting staff, no?
joshQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
That’s nothing compared to the broken leg Baez will suffer in 3 weeks. Neither of those compare to Soler’s decapitation in 3 months.
dmick89Quote Reply
josh wrote:
MishQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Thanks, mb. Now I’m going to hell for “Thumbs upping” a decapitation. (dying laughing)
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
It will be a day to day injury.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I guess if we were sending 30+ year old guys to compete, I might be more concerned about too much too fast, but Rizzo is 23 now? 24 at the most. If he can’t be ready to sprint to first 4 times a game and stand at first base most of the game, then we have bigger problems than the WBC being too much too soon.
Shit, I sprint to first 4 times a game once a year at our family softball game and play shortstop or centerfield (my family doesn’t have a lot of athletes in it) and my worst injury with no stretching or other preparation at all was a tight calf suffered last year at the age of 40. It may be a bad analogy talent-wise, but I fucking hate to make outs and I hate when a ball is out of my range in the field, so I’d like to think the effort is similar.
Aisle424Quote Reply
OV’s de-facto owner has a chat at BP today at noon CT
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1021
BerseliusQuote Reply
I actually sorta like this idea:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/15/ian-desmonds-ped-idea-make-players-play-for-50-games-without-pay/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Cubs lineup for SS game against White Sox that will be televised on WGN:
Valbuena 3B
Barney 2B
Castro SS
Schierholtz RF
Hairston DH
Navarro C
Bogusevic LF
McDonald CF
Nelson 1B
Cubs lineup for game against Japan national team that will NOT be televised:
DeJesus CF
Baez SS
Castillo C
Soriano DH
Sappelt LF
Vitters 3B
Soler RF
Vogelbach 1B
Gonzalez 2B
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/15/mike-pelfrey-is-in-the-best-shape-of-his-life-but-im-not-sure-how/
(dying laughing). (dying laughing). Even I eat better than that.
SVBQuote Reply
Carlos Gomez ———–> 4/28.3 extensión with Milwaukee. Great defense and power in CF and hit his career high OBP last season…..of .305
BerseliusQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/cubs-showcasing-the-best-of-their-system-to-japanese-media-instead-of-their-own-fans.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ mikeakaleroy:
I don’t think there would be more injuries because they played in the WBC. If anything, they’d probably get a little less playing time. Perhaps they’re playing at a higher intensity, but when you factor in less playing it’s hard to see how it’s going to cause more injuries.
Albert Almora broke his wrist while swinging a bat. Injuries happen. Sure, if Clayton Kershaw leaves a game holding his shoulder the WBC would catch the blame, but unfairly.
I guess I’ve come around on this. A couple years ago I’d have agreed, but the WBC isn’t going anywhere. I’d like to see the best teams possible. Once players decide which teams they want play for, I’d like the fans to vote on them for the US roster. Other countries could do the same if they wanted. Imagine last night’s game was started by Clayton Kershaw who pitched 3 innings. He was relieved by someone like Justin Verlander and then another star pitcher. That would be fucking awesome.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
Who owns Obstructed View?
AlvinQuote Reply
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Otelia SampeyQuote Reply
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King KumarQuote Reply