The Patience Plan that the Cubs are executing was first met with wide appeal when Theo and Jed first arrived on the scene about a year ago. They came in and stated quite clearly that they would be building from within, re-stocking the largely barren farm system they inherited from Jim Hendry, and any free agent signings in the near future would be safe, low-risk signings that would not jeopardize long-term fiscal flexibility for when they do have an actual competent team that can contend. These declarations were music to most fans ears at that point.
Finally! A regime that will address the organization as a whole instead of concentrating solely on the major league level every five years or so! It was a miracle. We danced in the streets as we dreamed of a day when the Cubs would have a true organization and not a hodge podge of minor league teams all teaching their players different things depending on who is coaching them at any given time.
It was a big project. A HUGE project. This wasn't about fixing a single team. It was about re-creating the philosophy and operations of an entire organization from top to bottom. They were very clear about this from Day One. This was going to be a process. This was going to take time.
Well, Theo, your time is up with some fans. We've already heard from Chet Coppock live from a high school gymnasium. Today we're hearing from a blog I didn't know existed until MB referenced them the other day. Gil Gerard at RantSports.com is fed up with patience. He has been patient for a whole year, and now he is just plain upset about what an embarassment the Cubs have become under Theo.
You can't spell "short-sighted, moronic, ramblings" without R-A-N-T, so let's see what Gil is so mad about:
The Chicago Cubs continue to show their fan base they don’t want to win now.
Gil has already made the mistake of confusing desire with ability. The Cubs want to win now. Of course they do. None of the people in charge of making decisions on the baseball operations side has reached the level they have in the industry by not wanting to win. The question is whether the Cubs have the TALENT to win now and I think we saw over the last couple of seasons that the resounding answer to that question is: No, they do not.
With the trade that went down between the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins, there is simply NO excuse for the Cubs to not have been involved in talks for Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson. The fact the Blue Jays didn’t even give up their top prospects shows that it was a salary dump by the Marlins – one that the Cubs could have easily been in on.
Well, Josh Johnson, I'll give you, but Jose Reyes? Don't we already have a shortstop? Of the many issues the Cubs have, their shortstop isn't anywhere close to the top of the list. And what makes Gil so sure that the Cubs weren't having conversations with the Marlins? Who is to say that Jed hadn't been on the phone with them to talk about Josh Johnson and the Marlins were more interested in dumping every player on their team who makes more than league minimum in one fell swoop? Why piece together multiple deals that bring back bit players from many teams when you can lump all your garbage together and get a decent little package of talent from one place? That's what I would have done if I were the Marlins.
Yes, that’s right: the Cubs could have turned themselves into a World Series contender – but no.
Wait… what? Adding Josh Johnson and a shortstop that we don't need makes the Cubs a World Series contender? You do know the Cubs lost 101 games last year, right? You also know that even if Josh Johnson returns to the value he had pre-injury, that adds about 6 wins. I won't even subtract anything by plugging in Reyes because I should since Castro was actually more than half a win better than Reyes last year. That brings the Cubs up to 65 wins. Even if you buy that they were unlucky last year, I think the most any rational person could expect is 75 wins. The most optimistic projection in the world would still be putting a Cubs team with Josh Johnson and Jose Reyes on it as below .500. Unless baseball does the old hockey thing and lets everybody into the playoffs, the Cubs aren't contending for jack shit next year with or without Johnson and Reyes.
The Ricketts family bought this team and promised the Cubs faithful they want to win; well, that went quickly out the window. The lack of funds, or perhaps the simple inclination to be cheap, have essentially turned them into the enemy – one that sports the opposite message: winning is not part of the program.
Nothing the Ricketts have done since they took over convinced me they didn't WANT to win. I questioned whether they had any clue HOW to win or WHO would be able to execute their vision of a consistent winner, but the WANT was never the problem. They started sinking money into the infrastructure of this team from Day 1. They are building a new state-of-the-art Spring Training Facility, they are building a new training facility in the Dominican Republic, they are upgrading the facilities up and down their minor league system. That costs money and it doesn't generate revenue right away, so if an owner was "cheap" as Gil contends, these are the first things that a cheap owner wouldn't bother with. And it is exactly why the Cubs are in the situation they are in now, since the previous owners didn't sink money into anything that didn't directly impact the ability to raise revenue. Wrigley Field isn't an ancient hole because the Wrigleys had a vision of creating a historical tourist destination. They didn't pump money into it to keep up with the times. So blaming the Ricketts now for having to allocate money into solving long-term problems that weren't their fault is pretty unfair.
Not even if the cost comes down to simply taking a calculate risk on salary.
There are a finite amount of dollars to spend on the baseball budget. I'm sorry if you think it should be infinite, but the Cubs aren't the Yankees. No team is the Yankees. Even the Yankees have finally found the ceiling of what they can spend before it starts getting self-defeating. The Cubs are allocating their money as much as possible to development. Again, this is not a surprise to anybody who paid even the least little bit of attention for the last year. This team will not squander salary on cosmetic, short-term solutions that do not help the team in the long-run. I don't think they could be any clearer.
They want to make profit; that’s great and dandy for the Ricketts as business owners, but for a Cubs fan like myself? I’m disgusted. While the Cubs are signing the Scott Bakers of the world, mid-market teams like the Blue Jays have turned themselves into a contender overnight while not blowing up their farm system.
Overnight? They dropped off last year because Jose Bautista and a million other Blue Jays like Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, Brandon Morrow and others got hurt. They finished over .500 the previous two seasons in the AL East. There is nothing overnight about anything the Blue Jays have done if they contend this year. Just because you weren't paying attention to them, Gil, doesn't mean they didn't exist or sucked.
It makes me sick.
Your incredibly shallow, short-sighted analysis? Me too.
Let’s look at this logically.
Yes, for the love of God, let's finally look at this logically.
The Cubs could have sported a rotation of: Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Mark Buerhle, Jeff Samardzija, and Travis Wood/Scott Baker. They could have picked up a REAL lead-off hitter in Jose Reyes to play short. They could have moved Starlin Castro to third, brought in a catcher that isn’t a total travesty in John Buck, AND add a super-utility guy like Emilio Bonifacio to the bench in one fell swoop.
I don't think you know what "logically" means, Gil.
And they could have done all this without giving up Javier Baez, Albert Almora, and Jorge Soler.
HOW THE FUCK DO YOU KNOW THAT, GIL? Baseball America had Marisnick as their 2nd highest rated prospect in the Blue Jays' system. Nicolino was #5 AND he's a pitcher. The equivalent pieces in the Cubs system would be Baez or Almora (depending who you ask) and Dan Vogelbach. The closest pitcher comparison would be Arodys Vizcaino. PLUS they gave up a young major league arm in Henderson Alvarez along with the rest of the group. I don't even know who the equivalent there would be, Travis Wood? If you squint really hard and drink enough alcohol, maybe. I don't know what the depth of the Blue Jays' system is, but that trade would re-fuck everything Theo and Jed had just started un-fucking about the Cubs' pathetic level of talent in their farm system. And for what? Overpaying Mark Fucking Buerhle? Your little dream scenario there gets the Cubs major league roster back to the same talent level they had at the beginning of last season, AND THEY FUCKING SUCKED AT THE BEGINNING OF LAST SEASON!
What the heck. Seriously.
SERIOUSLY!!
I don’t want to hear this garbage like “the Cubs are rebuilding from within”, blah blah blah. The Cubs once spent $300 million in an off-season and it gave them a window to win a world series.
LOOK WHERE IT FUCKING GOT THEM, GIL! IT GOT THEM HERE! They pissed a shitload of money down the toilet to make the Cubs APPEAR like winners to FALSELY INFLATE the value of the team. If you think Sam Zell gave one flying fuck about the Cubs' record in any way other than how it made his team more valuable on the market, you need to go back to whatever school educated you and demand your money back.
The Cubs are supposed to be a big-market team, and frankly, they could – and should – be spending money and rebuilding at the same darn time. Letting this trade go down and not getting involved sends the message to me, as a fan, that the owner doesn’t give a damn about winning.
Yes, the Cubs are supposed to be a big market team. But you know what big market teams have that the Cubs don't have? Stadiums with huge money-making luxury suites. They have signs from advertisers that scoop money into the owners' pockets. They have television deals that provide ungodly sums of money. The Cubs don't have any of that compared to a real major market team. Again, this is shit that doesn't get the headlines until it goes hilariously wrong, but the Cubs are at least trying to change these factors so that they can act like a real major market team. So yes, they SHOULD be a major market team, but the difference isn't Ricketts just snapping his fingers and saying, "Make it so."
He only cares about the bottom line.
Again with this. Look, saying it repeatedly doesn't make it any more true than the first time you said it. You just look dumber.
The Chicago Cubs are never going to win by “rebuilding” from within like the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’ll be even more hilarious if the “blue chippers” don’t ever become the stars the Cubs are trying to tell us they’ll be.
Who said it would be like the Pittsburgh Pirates? You know why the Pittsburgh Pirates never finished a rebuild? Because it eventually costs money. Because every time they had players that were any good at all, the rest of the team was still so bad that that they had to trade off the good players. The Pirates have to hope that all of their prospects eventually all get good at the same time. If the Pirates had the resources of even a medium market team there is no way in hell that Barry Bonds ever plays for the Giants. Certainly not through the height of his career. The Cubs aren't in that position. Even with all of the restraints put on them by the ballpark and their crappy television deal and the bitchy neighborhood, they still have more money than the Pirates do. They just extended Starlin Castro didn't they? Aren't they talking about locking up Jeff Samardzija? The Pirates would be trading Jeff Samardzija without even thinking about it.
It’s laughable and I for one am FED UP with the clown car that is the Chicago Cubs.
I think it's laughable that you sat peacefully by during the Trib and Zell years without calling them out, but now that they have an actual owner trying to make the team great by addressing more than the cosmetic issues, you can't take it anymore.
Someone tell the Ricketts family that they need to sell the team to real owners. Cubs fans have waited long enough for an ownership group that, oh, I don’t know, wants to celebrate a winning team in October?
Oh, I see where this is coming from. You see the Dodgers gobbling up salaries like the fat kid at a hotdog eating contest for no apparent reason and Toronto taking on bloated salaries in a desperate effort to stay relevant in their division and equate spending with effort. Here, as a present from me to you, something for your spank bank:
Now shut the fuck up and let Theo and Jed work.
Comments
*applause*
I would turn the post green if I could.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
“If you squint really hard and drink enough alcohol, maybe.”
(dying laughing)
Jed Jam BandQuote Reply
The bolded part I very much agree with, but can’t say one word about a trade that didn’t happen. It’s just silly to be upset that the Cubs didn’t make a trade for half the Marlins. Yeah, I wanted the Cubs to go after Josh Johnson and they may have as you said. As for the others? I’d rather not have them (especially Reyes because, well, he’s not as good as Castro).
This guy’s reasoning is so full of shit I’m surprised you were able to get through this as well as you did.
I do, to some small extent, understand where he’s coming from. I just think he’s trying to hit on as many points as possible while not realizing that some of those points are nonsense. It’s like he thinks if he touches on every little thing it will make an argument stronger even though most of those little things are silly.
I also understand why more and more fans are going to be disappointed and angry at both Ricketts and the new front office. I won’t agree with many of them, but I will agree with small parts of the what the growing number of people will say.
I’ve been thinking about writing something about this, but I’ve decided not to. It will either be dismissed immediately or attract the wrong type of people to the site (like the guy from Rant Sports).
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
If they spend enough to be marginally competitive, then the trade of their better, older players would be very hard to justify and they end up stuck in the same pattern they’ve been in for years. I think they may have overstated how possible a parallel front was when they first got here because they didn’t clearly comprehend just how bad the system was.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Amen, brother. I’m an out of state Cubs fan so don’t have to deal with the constant barrage of this kind of shit from the Chicago media. If I did, my head a splode. I just hit the sane sites like this one and let you guys fight the good fight against the crazy.
What’s annoying as shite is that in a couple three years when the Cubs have turned the system around and are constantly competing, it will be all, “FINALLY” from guys like this. They’ll completely miss the fact that it’s total cause and effect from this period they railed so hard against.
Carne HarrisQuote Reply
Travesty. Anyone involved in education, at any level, knows that reeducation is more difficult than teaching something the first time. It’s no surprise that changing a culture takes more time. That’s just the culture part. That doesn’t include trying to line up signings, trades, etc. in an attempt to bolster a starved system. Zell painted the facade, but it’s been pretty obvious that the only thing behind it was dust and rat crap.
JSlip1Quote Reply
@ JSlip1:
Don’t forget the urine!™
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/16/giancarlo-stanton-i-do-not-like-this-at-all/
The Cubs better offer up some young players like Tony Campana and Bryan LaHair to the Marlins before too many other teams get involved. They seem like the kind of guys the Marlins are looking for.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Hey MB, I was reading the link in the last thread about the school books in India that suggested meat-eaters were sex criminals. I suspect the authors hired some of the members of the Kansas State Board of Education as consultants.
You could probably comment on that if you weren’t still addled by all the hot chixxx today.
SVBQuote Reply
Awesome rant, Aisley. Rickets’ may well not have as much money to blow on the budget as the previous owners did as a direct consequence of the facility rebuilds they’ve done. I’m saying maybe they’re not just being frugal. I really think once Soriano is off the books, a lot of doors will open up for the Cubs in terms of signing potential.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I don’t think Soriano is the biggest deal anymore. I really don’t. But they still have quite a bit of debt they are trying to pay down and it’s looking more and more likely they may have to pay for any renovations themselves. Pissing money away on cosmetic changes to keep the meatballs happy is only going to prolong this shit.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Essentially, they will ink a new TV deal in 2014 (I think) and around then we should have a much better idea how many of these guys in A ball are still legitimate prospects that can be counted on as viable options. That’s when they’ll spend the money to fill the holes.
Aisle424Quote Reply
As much as I like to be argumentative, I really don’t mean to be here, but I’m not sure it’s as simple as Cubs spending money left and right got them into this mess. I think it’s a combination of things as is usually the case.
For one thing, the Cubs under Hendry were rarely allowed to spend money on minor league talent and as a result, the farm system went to shit. The one year they were was his last and it was his best draft by far and the Cubs best prospect is the result of that draft. Several others in the top 10 are also part of that draft.
What got the Cubs into this mess was that they spent tons of money at the big league level and spent among the least in baseball on amateur talent. During Hendry’s last year I believe they spent more than all but 1 or 2 teams on amateur talent and that’s a big reason why the farm system has started to improve. The Cubs did not do this for a long time and they constantly had to fill holes by spending more money. There was never any relief so the only option was to spend, spend, spend.
Furthermore, some ill-advised contracts got in the way too. When you look at where the Cubs were after 2006, there was no reason to sign someone to a 7-year deal. Although at the time it actually wasn’t a bad contract in terms of projected value (and it hasn’t been as bad as some thing during the contract either), it was still one the Cubs should have passed on. Signing Milton Bradley was obviously a bad idea even though I was very much behind it at the time.
Trading Nolasco for Pierre, signing middle relievers to 2 or 3-year contracts.
Under Hendry the Cubs didn’t take advantage of the ways in which you can improve a team. They tried only to improve the team by acquiring MLB talent either through trades or free agency. So far under Thoyer, they’ve done the exact opposite. They’ve limited the ways in which they can improve the team by only focusing on one way in which it can be improved.
The benefit to what Thoyer is doing is that if you get a little lucky it can really pay off and if you don’t, you’re only out a few bucks and you can still spend later on. So yeah, if I have to be a fan of one way over another, it might be the way Thoyer is doing it. It just doesn’t have to be one way.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad they’re spending money on amateur talent and I’m glad they’re not wasting tons of money trying to win something they can’t win yet. However, rebuilding is rather difficult. There aren’t a whole lot of success stories and the ratio of successful rebuilds to attempted rebuilds is quite low. Even if we think the Cubs have the most intelligent front office in the history of sport, we’re still going to find that even with that kind of talent, rebuilding is more about spending money and getting lucky than it is about anything else.
If a team only spends and spends then it takes some luck to win too. You have to stay healthy and you have to get what you’re expecting from players in a game in which there is a lot of variance. A team that spends and has a strong farm system requires less luck to win. Staying healthy is always important, but with a strong farm system it’s likely you have a decent player to step in and take over. Maybe you even have an up and coming prospect to take over and you actualy get better. You’re in a better situation to trade talent for MLB ready talent if necessary. Attacking this in only one way requires a hell of a lot more luck than trying to improve in multiple ways.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m using Soriano more as a benchmark, not necassarily even saying the money is the issue (well, yeah, maybe it is more than it was, but not the absolute breaking point). I just feel like Soriano they could kind of justify a shitty team as long as Sori is still there reminding everyone of the shitty contract (not to debate it was a HORRIBLE contract, but just saying that’s the perception).
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I could easily be wrong and they keep doing exactly what they are doing, but I think Sori kind of gives them a pass, in a way. I’m also a little drunk, so bear that in mind.
joshQuote Reply
@ mb21:
I think we basically agree. It is absolutely more complicated than their spending spree getting them into trouble. But as you pointed out, the money has to also be spent on the draft and development. The problem is thatguys like Gil are looking at the Yankees and seeing the big payroll, but they don’t notice that the Yankees probably also spend a shitload on their farm system as well. And the Cubs don’t have the Yankees’ resources.
But yeah, once they rebuild an infrastructure and they can concentrate more on the big league payroll, they will still need some luck. That’s why they want it to be repeatable, sustainable competitiveness. It might take a few shots and Theo & Jed might be gone before it actually happens.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I really do think it’s a holding pattern and a lack of talent. They’ll put money on free agents when they think the time is right, I believe. I’m putting money that the year they do that is the year after Sori is done, which I’m guessing is this year, but they could also try to “save up” talent through 2014 and probably not bat an eyelash doing it.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
I’m also willing to concede that they could do this in 2014 and it be total coincidence.
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That’s what worries me. There are at least even odds that within 5 years a new front office will be rebuilding the failed mess left behind. That’s just the way rebuilding works.
I disagree with a lot of the complaints, but at the same time I have to be honest that I think we want this to succeed so much that we’ve almost convinced ourselves it’s gonna work. All the fans were that way after Theo was signed. As we knew at the time, more and more would realize that’s not true the longer it takes them to win.
what makes it difficult is stupid articles like the one you wrote about here. They drown out any reasonable argument. When that happens any complaint begins to appear as foolish as the truly awful ones even if it isn’t. I’m not saying I’m right, but I do think I have at least articulated a valid reason to be concerned. I can’t say the same for Gil and Chet. They’re idiots. (dying laughing)
I’m not even upset. Not yet. I’m probably a little disappointed. I really thought they’d go about this in a more thorough manner, but I also understand they know more about the organization than I do. That doesn’t excuse them though. I did not think the Cubs would be a good team yet. I’ve been more skeptical about their timeline than most, which has also made me more depressed to be a fan than a lot of others. The reality of it takes several more years sounds a lot better when there’s reason to be excited, but once there’s no reason to be excited, it fucking sucks.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I think we’ll see something in between your worst-case scenario and our biggest hopes and dreams. What we do know is that Soriano’s contract will be off the books sooner rather than later now. We know they will bank a shit-ton of money when they sign a new TV deal. We know that they aren’t going to abandon the minor leagues once the team starts getting back to respectability. they’ll have money and eventually they’ll have a deeper farm system where a trade like the one Gil suggests actually wouldn’t be the biggest deal in the world to the farm system. But when Josh Vitters is your #10, you don’t have depth to fuck around with.
They’ll spend. Theo isn’t in this to be all small market like Andy MacPhail trying to make a point. He wouldn’t have taken the job without assurances that he’d be able to spend when the time is right.
When Theo leaves this job, I don’t think a new regime will be cleaning up a mess. This team is going to much better off in 5 years, World Series contender or not. Change may be necessary because of dickheads like Gil will need a scapegoat, but the organization will be better. Of that, I’m as certain as one can be about a sports team.
Aisle424Quote Reply
mb21 wrote:
This should have been a DogShot
Suburban kidQuote Reply
My favorite Gil quote is “Ah all right Old Gil’s gonna collect big from insurance. I’ll be eating food tonight.”
joshQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Although if their plan seems to be working, and the owner has confidence in them, I can see Theo and Jed sticking around to see the whole thing through a la Billy Beane in Oakland. Of course, as you well know, Billy Beane’s shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Theo and Jed have been given permission to do pretty much whatever they want. They were signed to 5-year deals and Ricketts hasn’t gotten in their way (at least we don’t know about it and it doesn’t seem like it). If this ship isn’t turned around in 5 years, they gone. Ricketts has shown he’s more than patient, but by this time next year there will be an awful lot of Cubs fans who are angry at this organization. By the end of 2014 it’s likely that well over half will be.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
If this takes as long to translate at the major league level, I can see Theo & Jed being sacrificed to appease the meatballs. If this sucking at the major league levels continues, that wait list will evaporate and they’ll have to make a cosmetic move.
Also, if Baez, Soler, Almora all turn into Patterson and Pie, there will be hell to pay.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ mb21:
@ Aisle424:
I get that, but I’m also slightly more optimistic that this team won’t be complete shit by 2014. Only half shit (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Here’s the 2014 FA list:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html
Everybody start dreaming.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I’m not sure it will be appeasing the meatballs. If you give someone the ability to do pretty much whatever he wants and 5 years later you still suck, that person should be fired. It’s very likely there are better people for the job if that’s the case.
I don’t think it’s likely that happens. The will be at least somewhat better and my guess is if the farm system tanks in the next year or two Thoyer will be spending gobs of money on free agents to save their jobs and reputations.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
CarGo is the only one on the list that would excite me. A few other interesting names, but they’re all over 30. Free agency is going to be expensive and extremely risky.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424Quote Reply
So Rant Sports wanted to buyout Aerys about a year ago. Obviously, I said “no.”
JulieDiCaroQuote Reply
Also:
“You should have seen me honey, I was so close to making a sale. Hey, who is that in the background? Awwww, is that Fred? I thought you were gonna leave him. No, no… dont put him on. Oh, hi Fred!”
Julie DiCaroQuote Reply
@ JulieDiCaro:
Rant sports is about like Bleacher Report. Just horrible.
mb21Quote Reply
No, they ASPIRE to be Bleacher Report. Remind me to tell you about my meeting with them sometime. @ mb21:
Julie DiCaroQuote Reply
@ Julie DiCaro:
I’d agree. I haven’t yet had to exclude them from my google searches like I did with Bleacher Report. Every damn result for baseball stuff was them and I never visit that place. They rarely have any useful info and even if they might, it’s difficult to read it.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2012/11/17/theo-epstein-the-portrait-of-a-snake-oil-salesman/
(dying laughing) Yeah, Theo is a “snake-oil salesman.” Did you know it’s in his contract that he actually makes MORE money if the Cubs lose?
This is why we can’t have nice things.
GBTSQuote Reply
I really wish the title of this article was Reaching bigs no small goal for big Vogelbach
mb21Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
Well, if the Cubs lose more games, he gets fired and gets all that guaranteed money without having to lift a finger… 😉
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/today-in-rant-sports-awfulness.html
mb21Quote Reply
Personal Loans Without Credit Check
personal loans without credit checkQuote Reply
Please, Jon…. Explain to me how Adrian Peterson is overrated again. I seem to have forgotten. http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2011/07/27/five-most-overrated-players-in-the-nfl/
AndyQuote Reply