Fortnightly Facepalm: 6.3.12 Draft, Soler, Baez, Garza, Dempster

I guess there's something going on tomorrow?

The MLB draft is tomorrow. The Cubs worked out possible first round picks Carlos Correa (SS) and Max Fried (P) earlier this week, and several draft evaluators are prognisticating that the Cubs will take high school OF Albert Almora. It's nice not having to worry about the Cubs picking another Tyler Colvin or Homer Simpson.

Jorge Soler's free agency is now officially official

The Cubs can now officially pursue Jorge Soler, His agent wants all offers submitted by Thursday, which is well before next month's CBA spending deadline. I guess we'll find out soon if the Cubs (or some other team) did have a handshake deal with him after all. The rumored Cubs deal earlier in the offseason was 4/27, and I hope that's not true. The Cubs need young talent, but at what price? Young talent is what teams need, but price is as big a factor in their value as aging curves. That amount of money would be better spent on a free agent rather than a guy with a ton of uncertainty who, even if he does pan out, will have a relatively expensive baseline to negotiate further contracts while he's under team control. The Cubs can afford it, but there are probably better ways to spend their money without overreacting to the new CBA.

The Cubs brass do seem to be impressed with Soler. Sveum said he likes his bat, but thinks that Correa might be a little better.

Javier Baez does what he wants

Last night Javier Baez hit a 4,000 foot HR (video below) and was later drilled in the ribs for swinging at a 3-0 pitch with a 13 run lead. The opposing manager was as obvious as possible about the pitch, coming out to talk to the pitcher immediately after the swing. Both were immediately ejected. Hopefully the opposing team also took the rest of the night off and refused to swing at every pitch for the rest of the game, since they already said the game was over. Asshats.

Also mentioned in dj's recap, Josh Vitters is still hitting well. He had a homer and a double in last night's game and now has a .276/.327/.470 line (.341 wOBA) on the season. Good thing for him that Ian Stewart isn't really staking any claim on the 3b job for next year. Speaking of Stewart, his bum wrist is bothering him yet again.

Matt Garza trade rumors heating up

John Heyman has reported that the Yankees have already expressed some interest, and Olney thinks that the Blue Jays could be a good partner. Garza has AL East Experience which gives him extra value to those teams. It's too bad the Rays likely won't have much interest in bringing him back, I'd love for the Cubs to crack into that farm system.

Speaking of pitching fire sales

The Dodgers could be a destination for Ryan Dempster. According to CBS's Danny Knobler they're looking to pursue pitching and hitting  (what else is there?), and wanted Dempster a few years ago before the Cubs extended him.

How's that Marlon Byrd trade working out?

Maroln Byrd with the Red Sox: 102 PA , .271/.287/.393, .257 wOBA, -0.3 WAR

Michael Bowden with the Cubs: 9.2 IP, 7.45 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 4.98 xFIP, -0.1 WAR, designated for assignment

I guess the Cubs are winning this trade (dying laughing)

Just because

65 thoughts on “Fortnightly Facepalm: 6.3.12 Draft, Soler, Baez, Garza, Dempster”

  4. Listened to a white sox farm system guy on the score yesterday who said this year’s draft is the worst he has seen in at least ten years.

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  5. I hope we pick Carlos Correa. He’s a nice story, can stick at shortstop, and he’ll be present at the draft, so someone with MLB.tv will need to get a nice vidcap of Correa donning a cubs hat for the first time.

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  7. @ GW:
    I’m not sure how much we should trust the word of anyone from that wretched farm system. (dying laughing)

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  8. DJ, I don’t understand what you’re getting at when you say this:

    maybe md but I think a unintended consequence of this CBA is big free agents wont make it to FA anymore. Everyone is getting extensions. Plus with the savings teams have in the draft & int’l the open market is going to get insane. Its hard to put into words just how damaging I think this CBA is but it’s bad for the game and I’m glad it only runs through 2016.

    How does that help the Cubs contend a lot sooner than 2015? Do you mean 2014 or do you mean next year? And how does the potential of fewer free agents being available help the Cubs contend sooner? I think you’re right to some extent, but this only makes it more difficult for the Cubs to contend in the near future.

    Unless they get Rays lucky and every prospect they have works out, I just don’t see it. This team is bad. Their farm system doesn’t have much that’s MLB ready and you’re talking about trading Dempster and Garza. The Cubs could contend in the near future without Dempster, who won’t bring much in a trade anyway, but I don’t see it happening without Garza.

    I see Dempster bringing a low C prospect if the Cubs don’t send any money along in the trade and maybe a B- prospect if they pay all the remaining money he’s owed. For Garza they could probably get a B+ prospect in return. Or maybe a couple B- ones.

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  9. @ GW:
    Some others have said that too, but I don’t know how much I believe comments like that. It was just a few years ago the same exact thing was said and a couple years before that it was also said. It seems to me any draft that doesn’t have a Strasburg, Harper or a few elite ones like last year’s is said to be the worst draft ever.

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  10. @ mb21:
    And it’s worth noting that of the three best prospects the Yankees have (Banuelos, Betances, and Heathcott), two are fighting injuries (Banuelos with an elbow strain and Heathcott with shoulder surgery), and Betances’ control has gotten so bad that he’s probably going to be permanently bullpen-tested soon. So who knows what sort of package the Yankees are thinking of for Garza.

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  12. @ GW:
    Yeah, I had tongue firmly in cheek there. It’s not the scouts’ fault that Kenny Williams is an idiot.

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  14. That’s why I think he’s given an extension. I don’t think the Cubs got anything near what they were hoping to be offered this past offseason and decided then to re-sign him.

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  15. @ mb21:
    Yeah, I get that. I’m just saying even if the Yankees were inclined to give us 2-3 B-level guys (which is about where most people seem to see those three), the 3 we’d want already have serious downsides, and whatever is behind them probably isn’t worth Garza himself, let alone whatever throw-ins the Yankees would want.

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  16. @ mb21:
    Agreed. I think Dempster, JefF7 and LaHair are the most likely trade candidates. I don’t buy that untouchable shit with Samardzija. Not even for one minute.

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  18. Let’s say he’s worth 2 more WAR the rest of the year and 3.5 next year. Both estimates are high, but fuck it. 5.5 WAR at $5 million per win = $27.5 million. He has $6.3 million left to be paid this season and will get $12 million or so in his 4th arb year. That’s just under $20 million so even if you estimate his value high you still only have a surplus trade value of under $10 million.

    A more reasonable estimate of his WAR is probably 4.5 between now and the end of next season. That’s $22.5 million and he’ll be paid about $19 million. I take back what I said about getting a B+ or 2 B- prospects. It’s more like 1 B- or a couple C’s and that would be a very good trade for the Cubs.

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  19. In my mind, it’s pretty simple for the Cubs with Garza- they have to have a pitcher (if not 2) of at least his quality on their team in 3 years. They have control of him now, so they could extend him. They would have to get someone as good as him back who would be on the team for a longer to trade him. Even if Samardjiza is this good, they need another. They aren’t likely to get someone that good from their current system as is. I think they end up extending him because I don’t know how they get someone that good back from anybody unless the Tigers consider giving up Turner. And signing a FA like Hamels or Greinke would likely cost at least as much and likely more than a Garza extension. That’s why I think they end up extending him.

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  23. @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I don’t buy it either. No GM in his right mind would have F7 as untouchable and I don’t care how good you think he might be. He’s been very good so far this year, but we just can’t ignore the past stats. Weight them less if you think he has transformed, but they do matter. Not to mention he’s going to be making big bucks in arbitration due to his already very high salary for someone who would otherwise be making league minimum.

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  25. @ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
    You know, even if they don’t intend to be competitive, I think they still extend Garza. Let’s say the Cubs are punting on the next few seasons. They still have to have a rotation and they have to have someone who can pitch well enough every 5th day to give the bullpen some rest.

    That and the fact they’re just not going to get a good enough offer for him makes it that much more likely he’s extended to a contract similar to the one Danks signed.

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  36. I especially like that he seems incredulous at security for dragging him off the pile. (dying laughing)

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  45. I love how anything can happen on this team. I love how you can go from no. 3 hitter to no. 8 hitter to bench in a few days or how you can go from closer to AAA in about a week.

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  46. Basically, the line between being one of the best players on the team and being not good enough to play is razor-thin.

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  48. Rice Cube wrote:

    I like how Koyie Hill is an improvement over Mather for the #8 spot (I guess someone has to do the catching though)

    Barney. Emergency catcher!

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  56. Summary of Callis interview with Orange guy

    Dawson is the best player that actually has a chance of dropping to the Cubs, though the chance is small. (this could be Gaussman, I suck at hearing. Some guy from LSU)
    Cubs will probably draft Almora
    Callis would take Correa over Almora and Fried, if all three were available at 6
    Callis had lots of great things to say about McLeod (thinks he’ll be a GM someday) and Wilken, referred to them as a dream team
    It’s a lousy draft for pitching

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  59. KG was on next, some more highlights

    Baez, Jackson, Rizzo the only bats with upside in the system.

    Loves Sczczcaratafdr’s speed, but points out there’s not a lot else there.

    He does not like the Cubs pitching prospects, would say any of them have good upside.

    He spent some time tempering expectations on Maples.

    He agrees that the Cubs will probably take Almora. He’s toolsy, could be a future 20-20 CF

    He thinks Correa is the best player in the draft, probably won’t drop to 6

    He doesn’t think the three big college pitchers will drop to six, but if Zimmer is still around at 6 he thinks the Cubs will take Almora over him anyway

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  60. Brewers announcers talking about replay:

    “I don’t like replay. Baseball is the greatest game as it is. I don’t like any part of replay.”
    (silence)
    “Do you like using replay for home run fair/foul calls?”
    “Oh yeah, I like that.”

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  62. I just wish people who reflexively shit on all things replay would just listen to themselves. All of them say replay isn’t necessary because the umpires get it right 99% of the time, and the really controversial stuff happens so rarely, etc. And then when they say what baseball would be like with replay, they say it will extend the game seven hours because we’ll be looking at and arguing every single call. Can’t have it both ways, guys.

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