Iowa Cubs 5 @ Memphis Redbirds 2
Brooks Raley gave up 5 hits and 2 runs in 5.1 innings. He walked 2 and struckout 3. Zach Putnam, Rafael Dolis and Blake Parker finished the game without allowing any runs. He did give up 3 hits and walked 3 while striking out 5.
1B Brad Nelson was 2-4 with a home run and a strikeout. I expected to be writing his name in these recaps frequently, but he's gotten off to a slow start. Nelson is the perfect example of a quad-A talent.
Brian Bogusevic was 2-4 with a double. Ian Stewart and Logan Watkins were both 1-3 with a double. Watkins also walked twice.
Montgomery Biscuits and Gravy 3 @ Tennessee Little Smokies 9
Eric Jokisch gave up 8 hits and 3 runs, only 1 of which was earned, in 6.1 innings. He struckout 3 and walked 2. He has an impressive 1.11 ERA over his first four starts and this last one was actually his worst. He's struckout 20 and walked 5 over 24.1 innings. He's allowed 19 hits.
Brian Schlitter threw the final 2.2 innings, didn't allow a hit or a run and struck a batter out.
Arismendy Alcantara was 2-4 with a home run. Everyone else in the lineup had one hit with the exception of Ronald Torreyes who went 0-3.
Matt Szczur and Christian Villanueva were each 1-4 with a double. Jae-Hoon Ha and Rafael Lopez were each 1-3 with a double and a walk.
Daytona Cubs 7 @ Dunedin Blue Jays 4
In Austin Kirk's 4th start of the season he threw 5 innings and allowed 4 hits and runs. He also gave up a home run. However, He struckout 8 and walked 2. It was his best strikeout to walk ratio of the season. In 18 innings he's struckout 16 and walked 10.
Zach Cates walked a batter in 1.1 innings. He didn't allow any hits or runs. Hunter Cervenka walked a batter and struckout 2 in 2.2 innings.
Javier Baez had a good day at the plate. He was 3-5 with a double and a strikeout. Over his last 10 he's started to hit, but still has not gotten on base nearly enough. His batting average is just over .300 and his OBP is .289. He's slugged over .550 so he's made up for it, but over that span he has 12 strikeouts and 0 walks. On the season he has 24 strikeouts and 2 walks and a .250ish OBP.
Zeke DeVoss was 0-3 with 2 walks. This guy can get on base. He's struggled a bit over the last 10. His batting average is barely over .200 and his slugging is under .300, but his OBP is over .425.
Dustin Geiger was 3-5 and Jorge Soler was 0-5. That's the first 0-fer I can remember for Soler.
Peoria Chiefs 9 @ Kane County Cougars 6
Michael Heesch is off to a pretty good start this season. He threw 6 innings, allowed 5 hits and 2 runs. He walked 2, struckout 5 and did allow a home run. In 3 starts this year, he's thrown 14 innings, allowed 11 hits and 5 earned runs. He has allowed 9 overall runs, a 5 walk and 12 strikeout rate isn't too bad. It's not great by any means, but it could be a lot worse. He's had 2 pretty good starts and a terrible start.
I've known 3 guys in my life named Brian Smith. I met one in high school, another while in Iowa City and the other one in Des Moines. There's a writer on Fangraphs named with the same name, though his name is spelled Bryan. There's also a Brian Smith with the Cougars and he sucked in his most recent outing. He allowed 3 hits, walked 2 and gave up 5 runs though only 1 was earned.
Smith is a left-handed reliever born on December 12, 1992. In 8 innings this year he's walked 7 and struckout 7.
Matt Iannazzo pitched 2.1 innings, gave up 5 hits and walked 3 and escaped while allowing only 2runs.
Dan Vogelbach was 2-4 with a home run and Marco Hernandez was also 2-4. His two hits were doubles. Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-4 with a walk and Gioskar Amaya was 2-5. Jeimer Candelario had 2 walks and a hit in 5 plate appearances.
The unrelated aside looks like it is about the only thing that is going to make these recaps bearable in the long haul. I’ll read JOT for the two-sentence anecdote or non-sequitor–like the trivia question in the Sierra Trader catalog for free shipping.
SVBQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
So Shawn posts this link that shows how much better the Cubs record could be, if they had actually done things they didn’t do.
I’m not sure that feeds my optimism.
SVBQuote Reply
Missed the game last night, just watched the highlights this morning:
GBTSQuote Reply
It’s fucking snowing here. Unreal n
dmick89Quote Reply
@ SVB:
So, the Cubs would be doing really good right now, if only they had won a lot more games?
EdwinQuote Reply
I don’t know why, but a lot of times I think Marco Hernandez and Gioskar Amaya are the same player.
/cool story jambroni
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Adam Dunn slash line: .101/.151/.246
27 strikeouts versus 3 walks in 73 plate appearances.
GBTSQuote Reply
The fucking snowflakes right now are the size of snowballs.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
That’s hovering around the Vitters-Mendoza Line.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
I just went to BCB to see if anything funny has happened recently. It made me miss the Forest gif. Who has it? I need it in my life right now.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Hard to believe it’s April.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The snowball flakes have given way to unusually large snowflakes now.
/play by play update
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
If you add Dunn’s average to his OPS it’s still under 500.
GBTSQuote Reply
As for the Cubs .500+ 3rd order winning percentage, I think it’s just too early in the season for that to matter. It’s kind of like pythag records at this point. It might indicate some luck, but I’m not sure it’s any more reliable than actual w-l record through this many games.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Let us know when the Yeti comes by to sell Girl Scout cookies.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Hit and run thoughts…
My take on it is these things are slightly less useless than W-L, if only because your sample size is largest. I think that tends to matter more early on in the season.
And regardless of what it says about what the Cubs *will* do I think it says something important about what they *have* done. They’ve been a little below average for MLB. We didn’t and don’t expect them to compete so the W-L isn’t as important as their level of play, IMO.
Actually, the best case scenario is just what they’re doing. Improve play of individuals but still have a bad record (due to luck or mismanagement or whatever) so they get another nice draft pick.
How’s that for “best of all possible worlds” logic?
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Yeah, but if you multiply it by 3 it’s damn impressive.
dmick89Quote Reply
shawndgoldman wrote:
It makes sense and you may be right. The Cubs starting pitchers have been pretty good. The bullpen has sucked and the offense isn’t too good. Baseball Prospectus sees their defense as being OK while UZR thinks they’ve been the worst in the league. I tend to agree more with UZR here, but that’s based only on what I’ve seen. They’ve looked horrible on defense. So I think it depends on how you view their defense to be honest. They’ve been a bit unlucky for sure, but I’d say that’s true of all bad teams. They’ve probably played better than record. Then again, that’s mostly true for all teams below .500.
I actually thought this team could win 75-77 games. I didn’t expect they’d contend, but it wouldn’t have surprised me. It’s pretty easy to get lucky and win a handful of games more than you expect at which point the Cubs are probably thinking about a playoff chance. I still think they’re probably a 75ish win team overall. Especially when Garza returns.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
The Cubs are a shitty team, but they’ve had some bad luck too. It’s certainly seemed like all their errors have come in bunches this year. Not that the eyeball norm is the best way to gauge these things (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think the TTL is around 72 for this team, but I predicted something like 63 or 64 because of the inevitable selloff down the road.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Defense had to take a hit from Barney being out.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
The simulations for various projections all seemed to agree on 71 or 72 wins so I’d agree that’s their TTL. I’m just an optimistic person. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ josh:
Not to mention that Barney is the only middle infielder who knows how to catch a throw from the catcher on a stolen base. The rest of the guys run into the pitching mound to catch the ball and race back to apply the tag.
dmick89Quote Reply
Is the theory still out there that a bad bullpen can make your actual W-L worse than your pythag record? That would also explain some of this without resorting to luck.
shawndgoldmanQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I was laughing during last night’s game when Castillo threw out Mesoraco. The ball almost got to the bag before Castro did. He got the out, but what should have been a play where Mesoraco was out by a mile was actually pretty close. That said, I guess it was kind of a surprise to have the catcher running there.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
It’s certainly out there that a good bullpen can help you beat it (e.g. the 2012 Orioles), so the opposite must also go along with that.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
They’re horrible at this. It all started when one of the best SS of all time was their bench coach, which is fucking weird. Trammel was out there working with Castro on this very thing day in and day out and it’s still a problem. Castro is better than he used to be, but will still find himself in front of the bag far too often. Since it should never happen, even once is too often. The clowns they had at 2nd in place of Barney almost caught the ball on the grass. It was absurd.
I’ve never seen another team do this as frequently as the Cubs.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ shawndgoldman:
Record in one-run games has an affect on overall w-l records so if we’re to believe, and I do, that winning those games usually requires a strong bullpen, then I think it’s true.
dmick89Quote Reply
old but still good:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/in-my-day-ballplayers-were-for-shit,10792/
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
I haven’t checked my closer by committee prediction for the Tigers lately, but I assume I’ll eat that one. However, there is no way I’m backing off of my 100 losses for the Cubs prediction. ( Even if B seems to be backing away from that same number.)
mobile svbQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
No backing away here. I predicted 98 or 99 losses. I think this team is better than that, the prediction had more to do with the state of the team post fire sale.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
When snowflakes get larger, in my view, it generally takes a less amount of flakes to cover the same amount of ground than snowflakes that are smaller.
/McCarver’d
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Who are they going to trade though? Soriano? They will if possible, but it’s not like you could expect anything more than a win out of Soriano the final 2 months. DeJesus? same thing. Marmol? Nothing. Garza? Maybe a win if he’s healthy. To knock off 10 wins or so based on a fire sale and performance in August and September, they’d have to trade F7, Castro and Rizzo.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ mobile svb:
Here’s why…
Mid season selloff of half our +war guys.
No apparent talent in AAA to replace them.
Complete inability to hold a lead. I expect we’ll still kick the tires on Fraciscio Cordero and F Rodriguez too. But starting with Gregg is not confidence building.
Lousy offense.
I’m not angry about this, btw. It’s pretty much what I expected.
mobile svbQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Sorry. I’m pretty sure one of the First 4 also thought 100 losses was likely. Maybe it was 424 because I think AC was on sabbatical for that exchange. And dmick has been possessed by the Hope Monster.
Maybe that’s the answer to Josh’s question. Hope Monster that looks vaguely like Jerry Garcia and writes a blog.
By the way B, you are still looking quite dapper in that hat.
mobile svbQuote Reply
The First 4, I kind of like that, it’s like they are mythical creatures or something
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Wood, maybe?
joshQuote Reply
FWIW, I think their starting pitching and defense will keep them close in a lot of games, but anemic offense and poor relief staff will keep them from winning, which will make them underperform projections. They have 2 good relievers, maybe three, but even they aren’t above blowing leads, and you can’t use them everyday. The starters are good enough that they could maybe win 75 games, but it won’t happen, fire sale or no.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
DeJesus, Soriano, Garza (at the time of the prediction), Schierholtz and/or Hairston, Marmol, Villanueva, Baker. Yeah, probably not 10 wins. I wasn’t trying to be super scientific (dying laughing). I also think that the guys who would replace any of the traded players would be sub replacement level themselves.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I understand your concern, berselius, but the rest of have never needed an app like this: http://m.upi.com/story/UPI-52761366654236/
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I developed it for Cardinals fans.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Apparently I won the weekend. I watched zero Cubs games and have seen zero highlights.
/not a true fan’d
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
In that case, I doubt it gets used for “spoiling” so much…
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
This presumes that Cardinals fans can use apps.
/troll
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
“Heyward has surgery….
(–WHOA WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENE–)
….to remove appendix”
Am I the only one who thinks that was a bizarre way to word that headline on mlb.com? I really think the term “appendectomy” is well-known enough to just use that.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
MLB.com headlines, now written by Rant Sports!
mikeakaleroyQuote Reply
@ josh:
It’s about SEO. “Player has surgery” is going to lead to more hits now, tomorrow, next week and 3 years from now than “Player has appendectomy.” That doesn’t really excuse it, but that’s why they did it.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I think it will be interesting to see what the Cubs do with Garza. The pitching in the minor leagues is behind what the Cubs had to be hoping it would be at this point. I think that’s why they signed Edwin Jackson and we’ve heard talk about an F7 extension. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sign Garza long-term if he returns healthy. Same thing with Villanueva. They may be the Cubs cheapest options in the near future.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
God damn it I hate the internet.
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think the Cubs best play is to give Garza a qualifiying offer this offseason, and then work out an extension if he takes it. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if they lowball him right now since his value is at a low.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://jezebel.com/watch-these-clueless-kids-at-coachella-lie-about-liking-478241794
some of those band names are pretty hilarious.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ mobile svb:
Aisle 424
dmick89Quote Reply
Using the Cubs pre-season projections and current w-l record, we can already expect this team to win fewer than 70 games (68-69). So 100 losses is getting much easier to accomplish and we’re not even through April yet.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
BerseliusQuote Reply
Anyone watch Rectify?
dmick89Quote Reply
1. CF: Dave Sappelt
2. SS: Starlin Castro
3. 1B: Anthony Rizzo
4. LF: Alfonso Soriano
5. C: Welington Castillo
6. RF: Scott Hairston
7. 3B: Cody Ransom
8. 2B: Darwin Barney
9. SP: Carlos Villanueva
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Holy hell.
Aisle424Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/et-tu-keith-law.html
dmick89Quote Reply