1. Brett Jackson OF AAA
The Math — The 23 year old, 2009 1st round pick has a slash line .261/.339/.494. Astronomical strikeout rate (33.8%), but he still has a 114 wRC+.
The Good — Despite the K's Jackson has still been a productive player. He gets a ton of XHB's with his speed and has plenty of pop from CF. He steals bases very well. Plays a prime position and is one correction away from being a potential superstar.
The Bad — Strikes out like the love child of Adam Dunn & Mark Reynolds. His contact problem only seems to be getting worse. Walk rate is down as well.
Prediciton — Will finish the year in Iowa and maybe get a cup of coffee in Sept. Will win a starting job in 2013. Don't see a productive future for him unless he can get that K rate back to at least 25-30%. Likely hits in the .240/.320/.450 range. Maybe a couple 20/20 seasons.
2. Javier Baez SS A
The Math — 19 years old. 2011 1st Round Pick. Slash line .303/.375/.484. wRC+ 160. He already has 13 stolen bases and has been caught just once.
The Good – Everything so far. He is even more impressive when you watch him play. Great swing and works the count to his favor. High energy player.
The Bad — Doesn't walk as much as you would like. A little swing a miss to his game. Too early to see any major flaws.
Prediction — Who the hell knows with a younger player, but considering an entire industry has sprung up to provide this very guesswork let me say that the only thing keeping Baez out of the top spot is that I tend to skew towards guys who have done well at the upper levels of the minors vs potential and projection. That said, Baez seems to possess all the tools necessary to become a big leaguer. I think we see him in Daytona next year or maybe in AA if he really takes off. Scouts believe he'll be moved to 3rd base, but he has more than enough bat to play there.
3. Jorge Soler OF AZL
The Math –– 20 years old. 2012 Int'l Free Agent. Huge contract.
The Good — Scouts love him. He looks like a ballplayer.
The Bad — Nobody has seen him play yet. Its all projection.
Prediction — MB and I talked about not putting guys like Pierce Johnson or Almora on the list even though by virtue of having a heartbeat Johnson would be a top 5 arm in our system but I couldn't resist with Soler. I was a major bandwagon supporter for this guy and I like the fact that the scouts that BA & KG talk to both thought this guy was a top 10 pick. So lets just be conservative and say he will hit HR's the way Billy Hamilton steals bases.
The Math — 22 years old. 5th round in the 2010 draft. Large signing bonus. Improved walk rate leading to an OBP 100 points higher than his .273 average. Batting line is .273/.373/.383, which is good for a 126 wRC+. He's stolen 28 bases already this year and was voted the Midwest League's best defensive outfielder in 2011.
The Good — You have to love the fact that we are seeing an increase in walks as the level of competition increases. Especially considering this is his 2nd full year as a pro player. When you take a raw athlete like Szczur was out of college what you hope to see are adjustments as they focus and learn more about baseball and so far we have. Very good at stealing bases and plays an athletic CF.
The Bad — Not a lot of power so far. Have seen reports that talk about how he uses his athletic ability to get to balls in CF vs running the correct route.
Prediction — Both of us are pretty high on this guy right now. I could see him being the leadoff hitter going into the 2014 season.
5. Josh Vitters 3B AAA
The Math — 22 years old. Drafted in the 1st round of the 2007 draft. Batting .302/.356/.509 with a wRC+ of 115. He's improved his walk rate to 6.7% while his strikeout rate remains what it's been the last 2 years. His .207 ISO is his best since it was .219 in 2009 (hadn't topped .180 since).
The Good — His production never dropped off a cliff as he advanced. He has been young at every level so far. Blossoming at the right time. Scouts have always raved about his swing.
The Bad — Never shown this kind of production before. Defense still a question mark at 3B and will never hit enough to be a force at 1B. Walk rate is still low. While he's young he's been in the minor leagues since 2007. Age is important, but so is service time. On the plus side, he's never stalled at any level.
Prediction — Call me (dylanj) a Vitters believer. I think we have found a guy who will give us league average or better production at the league minimum for the next several years. Vitters wasn't a reach at 3, scouts always loved him (said he was the best high school bat in the country) and I think he will prove them right starting in 2013 when he locks down the starting 3B job.
6. Jeimer Candelario 3B A-
The Math –– 18 years old. 2010 International Free Agent. Born in the US, but moved to Dominican Republic. Baseball America says if he'd stayed in the US he'd have been drafted in the 1st round in the draft last month. Instead, the Cubs got him for $500,000, which is a bargain compared to what a team would have spent in the draft. All he's done so far is crush professional pitching. He's batting .337/.379/.517, which is good for a wRC+ of 174.
The Good — Everything so far. He's killed it at every level. One of the youngest players for his team at every level as well.
The Bad — Only been at two levels. Has a stiff body and won't stay at 3B so will need to keep hitting to keep value in LF or 1B.
Prediction — This guy has as much potential as anybody in our system. He has what you want to find which is great stats to verify the love scouts show him. He is also doing it at a young age. He's too far away to make any MLB debut prediction but like Baez he has the tools needed to be an impact player.
7. Junior Lake SS AA
The Math — 22 years old. International Draft. He's hitting .286/.335/.404 (104 wRC+). He walked a lot early in the season and flashed a lot of power, but has since reverted to the guy who doesn't walk much and doesn't hit for much power. Still 22 and already in AA though.
The Good — At times has flashed about every tool you can. Incredible physical makeup. Strongest arm in the Cubs system IF or OF.
The Bad — Has never put together a complete season. Doesn't walk enough. Still a poor SS.
Prediction — Really hard to say. I think the Cubs give him another year as a position player to make it or flame out before moving him the mound. He has a absolute cannon for an arm.
8. Dan Vogelbach 1B AZL
The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 2nd round of the 2011 draft. All he's doing is hitting .331/.391/.629 (156 wRC+). Not even 100 plate appearances in his career so far so it's difficult to know how good he really is, but the guy can hit.
The Good — Scouts loved the bat coming out of the draft. Has hit so far. Lost some of the weight he had as a HS player.
The Bad — He's still a fat, questionable defensive 1B playing in the NL. Which means he needs to hit like a motherfucker to ever matter.
Prediction — He hits well enough next year that he becomes a trade chip to an AL team and the Cubs move him.
9. Gioskar Amaya SS A-
The Math –– He posted a .377/.417/.510 line last year in the AZL (136 wRC+), but that was in large part because of .458 BABIP. He's been at Boise this season (minus one game at AAA) and has seen his BABIP dip nearly 100 points, but he's increased his walk rate slightly and has about the same strikeout rate. Despite the much lower BABIP, Amaya is hitting .306/.359/.482. That's good for a .399 wOBA and a wRC+ (151) even better than last year. Not a slugger, but has an ISO of .176.
The Good — Hits the ball very well. Has produced everywhere he has been so far.
The Bad — Not a lot of power there. Needs to improve the walk rate.
Prediction — Peoria next year.
10. Ben Wells SP A (disabled list)
The Math — 19 year old drafted in the 7th round of the 2010 draft. Only 2.2 BB/9 in his first taste of pro ball last season and a nice 3.51 FIP. This season he'd increased his strikeout rate and also decreased his BB/9 below 2. He was having a fantastic season. He only had 3 starts this year last 5 innings or longer (longest was 5.2 innings).
The Good — All his advanced stats are trending in the right direction even as he moves up in the system. Adding velocity to his pitches. Really heavy sinker could play well in Wrigley if he ever gets there.
The Bad — His elbow has exploded. Don't know if we will get the same guy back.
Prediction — We won't really know what we have here until 2014.Keep your fingers crossed.
11. Welington Castillo C AAA
The Math — 25 year old international free agent. He's been on the Cubs 40-man roster since 2010 and is more than likely out of options after this season. Batting .247/.395/.393 this year in AAA. Last year in AAA he accrued a lot of his value through power (.238 ISO), but this year it's been his ability to get on base (.153 ISO). He's been in AAA for parts of seasons going back to 2008.
The Good — Has done about all you can in the minors by being a productive guy year in and year out. Had at taste of MLB action.
The Bad — May not be better than Clevenger. Probably not an everyday catcher.
Prediciton — Should form a good tandem with Clevenger once Soto leaves. Expect to see him up full time starting next season.
12. Marco Hernandez SS A-
The Math — 19 year old international free agent. His .861 OPS in rookie ball last season (and his position) is why he's here. He's slumped this season. In 2008 the Cubs rookie team had Starlin Castro and Junior Lake split time and both made the league's top 20 prospects for Baseball America. In 2011 they had a couple other shortstops splitting time who made the same list in Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez. He has potential, but hasn't hit well after the promotion this year.
The Good — Best true SS in our system. Still young for his level.
The Bad — Has been pretty much awful this year.
Prediction — Will probably head back to Peoria once Baez gets promoted.
13. PJ Francescon SP A+
The Math – 23 year old drafted in the 40th round of the 2011 draft. He had an excellent pro debut last year striking out over 27% of the batters and walking under 5%. Strikeout rate has dropped to 15.8% in High A and the walk rate remains solid at just over 6%. He allowed only 4.7 hits per 9 in Peoria this year, but it's jumped to 9.2 in Daytona. He's a little old for Daytona, but was a late round pick who completed 4 years of college.
The Good — Dominated Peoria earlier this year. Stuff seems to be improving.
The Bad — Hasn't been nearly as good in Daytona so far. Small sample size but a 5.94 K/9 isn't going to cut it.
Prediction — Will continue to be the best healthy starter we have by default until some of 2012 guys get their feet wet. Will probably start the year in Daytona next season.
14. Alberto Cabrera RP AAA
The Math — The 23 year old international free agent was a starter last season and not a very good one. He was converted to the bullpen this year and there's really only two things you need to know: he's thrown only 45.1 innings between AA and AAA and his K-BB% is .25. He has struckout 30.9% of the batters he faced this season and walked (plus hit by pitches) 5.9%. This is AA/AAA, but to give you an idea how good this is, the best reliever in history (Mariano Rivera) had his best season in 1996 and his K-BB% was .226. I'm not comparing him to Mo. That would be silly. I'm just providing a reference point for those unfamiliar with a good K-BB%.
The Good — Has been totally filthy since moving the bullpen. Video game numbers. Keith Law described his fastball as one of the best he's seen from any prospect period. 97 mph with plus plus sink.
The Bad — It's only been about 50 IP so we don't have big track record here. Law also said he lacked a true secondary pitch.
Prediction — We will see him in the pen this year.
15. Ronald Torreyes 2B A+
The Math — 19 year old international free agent was the high upside player the Cubs received in the Sean Marshall trade. His only bad stint up to this season was 68 PA in 2010. He then tore that league up last year and had a 144 wRC+. He got off to a slow start this year, but has started hitting of late (season wRC+ of 91). He's young for Daytona too. His 4.6% walk rate in A ball last year has jumped to 7.6% this year in the more difficult league. His strikeout rate is just 6.6% and he's been a victim of BABIP this season (.240).
The Good — Has really hit at every level despite being young. Walk rate improved this year.
The Bad — It seems that his bat fell of a cliff this year but his BABIP is .240. Its always been over .350 before this season.
Prediction — I'm still a big believer in this guy's bat. Before this season his career #'s were damn similar to Starlin Castro's. He's a long way from the majors but I think he is the best 2B prospect we have. I hope he gets a crack at AA next season but wouldn't be surprised if they make him repeat the level.
16. Michael Burgess OF AA
The Math –– The 23 year old was drafted in the 1st round by the Washington Nationals in 2007. The Cubs acquired him for Tom Gorzelanny. Burgess has been an above average hitter his entire career and this year in AA is no different. His .368 wOBA is good for a 126 wRC+. He got an 87 PA taste of AA in 2010 with the Nationals and struckout in 30% of his plate appearances. This year it's down to 15.9% and he walks in over 9% his plate appearances. He has the organization's strongest arm in the outfield and while his power is down a bit this year, Jim Bowden once called it "thunderous".
The Good — Been productive at every level. Cut down the K's. Always had a decent walk rate.
The Bad — Repeating AA. Old for the level. Might be an org type player.
Prediction — Burgess is a hard guy to evaluate. On the numbers alone he seems pretty legit but the fact that nobody like BA or BP talks about this guy might mean scouts see something we don't. He needs to head on up to Iowa.
17. Arismendy Alcantara SS A+
The Math — 20 year old international free agent is hitting .306/.341/.453 in a league with a .701 OPS. His wOBA and wRC+ is .367 and 128. Alcantara joins Javier Baez, Junior Lake, Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez on our list of shortstops. The Cubs are rich in talent up the middle. Arguments could be made for Alcantara being higher on this list.
The Good — Terrific offense for the Florida State League at a premium position. Excellent basestealer.
The Bad — I've never heard anyone say his defense was even average. Scouts don't seem to be that excited by him.
Prediction — He gets bumped up to AA next season.
18. Logan Watkins 2B AA
The Math — 22 year old drafted in the 21st round of the 2008 draft is from the home state (KS) of the two people writing this post. With the exception of 2010, Watkins numbers have been above average everywhere he's played. He has a solid walk rate of 11.4% and a decent strikeout rate (16.8%). He doesn't hit for a lot of power (career .378 slugging), but he does have above average speed. He's stolen 72 bases in his career and already has 16 this year (5 shy of the most he's had in his career in a season). He wasn't a great base-stealer early in his career, but the last 2 seasons he's stolen 37 bases and only been caught 9 times. After hitting all of 1 home run in his first 3 seasons he's muscled up and combined to hit 9 over the last 2.
The Good — Plays multiple positions. Does a little bit of everything offensively.
The Bad — Doesn't excel at anything. May not hit enough to make the bigs.
Prediction — Watkins could turn out to be a nice utility player. We will see him in Iowa in 2013.
19. Zach Rosscup RP AA
The Math –– The 24 year old was drafted by the Rays in the 28th round of the 2009 draft. He's 24 already and hasn't even thrown 150 innings in his career, but the results have been there. Prior to this season he had FIPs of 2.38, 2.85, 1.83 and 3.50 at his various stops. He hasn't allowed a run this season, but has only thrown 9 innings.
The Good – Was pretty good as a starter in Daytona last year and got hurt. Just recently made his debut working out of the pen so far this year and has been filthy. Has pitched well every at every level he has been at.
The Bad — Old for his level. Has trouble staying healthy.
Prediction — If he can stay healthy and pitch like he has he will be the greatest pitcher of all time. This has a 0.00001% chance of happening. Let's just hope he can stay healthy for now.
20. Trey McNutt SP AA
The Math — The 23 year old was drafted in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft. He quickly took to pro ball and dominated the low minors (through High A). A big warning sign sounded in his brief 15.2 inning stint at AA as his strikeout rate plummeted from over 10 to just 7.5. Despite that, his career numbers were awesome to that point and he was ranked as the 48th prospect in baseball entering 2011. Since then he's remained at AA and has seen his strikeout rate drop 3 years in a row while his walk rate has gone the wrong direction too.
The Good — Still has good stuff as I've heard the fastball is still in the mid 90's with a big breaking ball. This should translate well to the bullpen.
The Bad — Just totally fell off this year. At best we are looking a pen arm.
Prediction — Becomes a serviceable relief pitcher. In Chicago by next year. Could pitch in the upper 90s out of the pen.
Comments
I love your predicitons.
/snark
But seriously, nice write-up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Thanks. With the exception of a line here and there DJ did The Good, The Bad and Prediction while I did the math. We each had our own top 15 to start and worked from there. It was fun.
mb21Quote Reply
I guess you can’t really rank Albert Almora until he’s officially signed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
good job dylan š
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
curious dylan where you would have put almora, Johnson and Underwood?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
I can’t speak for DJ, but I’d have put Almora 4th or 5th (after Jackson, Baez, Soler and maybe Szczur). But I have a very hard time ranking prospects on projection alone. It’s great for the draft because you have production, but once you’re signed I just couldn’t do it. I didn’t include any 2012 draft picks or any player that has yet to play. There are enough sites that rank on projection and scouting alone. I think DJ and I each did are lists slights different, but I also think we agreed that other than Soler it’s just too early to include these guys.
mb21Quote Reply
yeah i should have ran a spellcheck there RC. Its been updated.
dylanjQuote Reply
This needs to be posted again: http://what-if.xkcd.com/1/
mb21Quote Reply
@ dylanj:
(dying laughing) I edited the damn thing and I didn’t even see that.
mb21Quote Reply
Too early to saw Bubbles. When we do a prospect list going into next season I think we can throw them in there but for now this was more a list reflecting how guys have moved based on the 2012 season.
dylanjQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
It’s okay, I was just being a dork as usual š
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Also, that was a recent All-Star inning I enjoyed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
yeah you should see some of my shit before i post in the morning. Im usually a zombie just hiding in my office. Spellcheck has caught some truly atrocious spelling errors. My teachers would cry in shame
dylanjQuote Reply
Also, just food for thought but I think the Cubs have the worst pitching farm system in all of baseball. It’s just totally fucking barren. Really really hoping we get some pitching prospects from Dempster/Garza if and when they go.
Good bats though.
dylanjQuote Reply
dylanj wrote:
Yeah, they do have some good bats, but their pitching is just pathetic. When PJ Francescon is the highest ranked healthy pitcher you got problems. The other pitching prospects on our list is the injured Wells, reliever who has dominated in a small sample (Cabrera) and the 24 year old Rosscup in A ball. And Trey McNutt who may or may not even end up being a decent reliever.
There will be a lot of 2012 draft pick pitchers on the Cubs top prospect lists, but that’s more a reflection of how bad the rest of them are.
mb21Quote Reply
The strength of the system in my opinion is at shortstop. Some of those guys will obviously move to other positions, but that’s great depth at a premium position. Outfield is questionable too. Who really knows about Jackson at this point? Same with Soler. Both have a ton of potential, but a lot of question marks. We’re both very high on Szczur though.
mb21Quote Reply
Did you guys leave off Whitenack because he’s still injured or because he’s been doing poorly?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
i would have put baez first… Just think his bat is going to be incredibly special and i would be lying if i said someones K problems didnt freak me out.
I would probably go
Baez
Soler
Amora
Jackson
Spellcheck Jr
Candelario
Vitters
Johnson
Vogelback
Lake
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
nice post, thanks.
really had high hopes for mcnutt.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Does Granderson always wear white shoes? I thought the Yankees didn’t allow that shit, but maybe since Stein died the uniform regulations have been relaxed a bit…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Holy cats, McCarver and Buck are terrible.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I don’t care if Cabrera and Cano talk every hour of the day and share wives, that was a fucking dick move by Cabrera.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I must have missed it…?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
this is going to help out the cubs when we have the best second half ever behind Rizzomania!!!!
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
During his home run trot, he ran by Cano at 2B (who is his former Yankee teammate and good friend) and reached out his hand for a low-five. Cano ignored him and Cabrera made a face. Pretty dickish if you ask me.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Ah, I did miss it. That does sound pretty dickish.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
(h/t to The Heckler)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
MB/Dylan where would have yall ranked Rizzo…
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Even Ryan Braun’s nice defensive play looks like a fucking unfolded lawnchair. He’s the most uncoordinated good player I’ve ever seen. (dying laughing)
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
It really would have been awesome if they just said fuck it he can play third for us and we can live with his bat
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Jon Heyman ā@JonHeymanCBS
Those gold shoes on bryce harper, real gold. hard to see but the aglets are pearls. used future earnings
Bubbles loves that kid
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I would have ranked him first. If I did a to 5 under 25 it would be Castro, Rizzo, Jackson, Baez, Soler.
Szczur next.
I know you like Baez, but Jackson has been a well above average bat in the high minors. The strikeouts are a concern, but they aren’t the only stat. Jackson has one flaw and he’s in the high minors. Fix that and he’s the best player on the Cubs. If he doesn’t fix it, it’s not like MLB is somewhere you can’t succeed with a high strikeout rate. He hits lefties well, plays above average defense, plus speed, solid power and he takes a lot of walks.
mb21Quote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
That kool-aid looks suspiciously like a tallboy (dying laughing).
uncle daveQuote Reply
To be optimistic about this team you need a kool aid keg.
mb21Quote Reply
That Kerry Wood State Farm commercial is pretty funny.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ mb21:
Yea i could go either way. I like Jackson i just worry about someone like that succeeding when he will probably K more unless we think this K rate is unsustainable.
Also is it possible he could be a Dunn type player with a lesser bat but better baserunning and defense to make up for it? If so that is valuable
edit: Bubbles just really really really believes in the specialness of Baez’s bat
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
Baez has a ton of talent, but a shitload of players have been awesome in low a and then not been very good. He just has a long, long way to go and we will see flaws. Low walk rate? I don’t know, but it’s not like he’s perfect. Both are very good prospects and in my opinion well ahead of anyone else at this point. This time next year maybe we add a couple others in that range, but I think it’s impossible to do that until you see some production. Scouts are great and if that’s all you have that’s all you have, but there’s a great deal more uncertainty when you don’t have production to include. We have a lot of production for Jackson and only a little bit for Baez. Which of the two are we more certain about? We have more info, valuable info, on Jackson. We’re definitely more certain about him.
If you rank on potential you’re going to have a lot of shortstops and catchers and not much else. What would that tell us that we don’t already know? In my opinion if you rank on potential they’re about equal. The tiebreaker is the certainty.
mb21Quote Reply
Gerardo Concepcion is the perfect example of why someone with both positive scouting reports and good performance is a much safer bet than one and not the other. He’s just plain terrible. He may be the worst starting pitcher in the organization and that’s saying something when Hayden Simpson is a part of it. Scouts are just dead fucking wrong at times. Even good ones.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
yea excellent point.
I dont know I like our hitters a lot. I probably change their order once a day.. Are you on the Vitters bandwagon yet?
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m a little more optimistic about him than I was, but I still see him as a below average regular or a quality partner in a platoon. This time last year he wouldn’t have made my top 10, but he does now. He’s young, but I also think that’s misleading he has a ton of professional experience. Why were we so optimistic about Szczur? Because he hadn’t played baseball full time until a couple years ago. Service time is important and it wouldn’t surprise me if it’s actually more important than age.
He’s not a great fielder, he’s very slow, has below average on base skills and IIRC has feasted on lefties. That said, he does have a lot of potential though he’ll never be a good fielder or base runner.
I actually see him as a better version of Jeff Baker. Someone who hits lefties well, learns to play multiple positions and is competent in an everyday role.
mb21Quote Reply
(dying laughing)
I like that we’re already penciling in 100+ HR seasons from Soler.
GBTSQuote Reply
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That was a particularly satisfying game.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ bubblesdachimp:
The Hope Monster approves.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
There isn’t any baseball until Friday. Duh-Doy!
joshQuote Reply
Went 0-1 in my softball game, with 2 walks. Would have been no official at-bats with 3 walks but I really wanted to try to get a hit and literally tried to golf one. I was catcher and didn’t particularly embarrass myself at the position.
joshQuote Reply
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22978523&topic_id=34326704
Giants players shut them right up.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
we need to update the race to the top
dylanjQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
Methinks the Cubs are in second place now.
Mobile RiceQuote Reply
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing)
jtsunamiQuote Reply
dylanj wrote:
Don’t tell me what to do.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ jtsunami:
I guess the debris from the exploding/expanding baseball would hit the batter before he even had a chance to swing…interesting.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mobile Rice:
Damn Rizzo is ruining our season. How can we expect a #1 pick if we keep winning?
WaLiQuote Reply
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/george-will-made-historical-flashcards-for-the-nats/2012/07/11/gJQATU7LdW_blog.html
That George Will knows how to party (dying laughing)
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
http://slyoyster.com/foodanddrink/beer/2012/major-league-baseball-craft-beer-guide/
MishQuote Reply
Someone let Mish babysit?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I find it amusing and somewhat appropriate that Wrigley Field is not listed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Old Sytle, Budwesier, Heinekin. Missing anything?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
I admit that I’ve never seen Heineken at Wrigley…only Old Style and Bud Light. I heard someone say there was a Goose Island stand somewhere but I’ve not been able to locate it so they could very well be lying.
I also don’t buy beer at Wrigley because it’s a waste of money.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Here’s an aside that links to BP’s new pitcher and hitter profiles: http://obstructedview.net/aside/bps-hitter-and-pitcher-profiles.html
mb21Quote Reply
the beer selection at Wrigley is an atrocity. So is the food. So is the stadium. Well, so is the team. But mainly, this rant is about the beer.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
One thing i have been thinking about are the terms upside and liklihood to play in the MLB.
I don’t get why you wouldn’t draft high upside players. Are the failure rates that much higher? Let’s say you draft high upside guy A. He is projected to be a top of the rotation starter. Guy A doesn’t pan out to be a stud. Instead he is a back end starter. Wouldn’t that be better though than drafting Guy B who might have a slightly better chance of being a back end starter but would never reach that top of the rotation potential?
I mean either way either player will most likely fail, right? Might as well get the higher upside guy and if he fails a little bit, he is still valuable.
I guess that’s why I’m happy that Theo seems to be drafting more Guy A’s instead of B’s (like Hendry used to?)
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t know if they have it there or not. For some reason I thought they had it though. I haven’t been to many games.
WaLiQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
They used to have “higher end” beers (before “craft” became used so frequently) like Sierra Nevada, Goose Island mixed in with faux high end beers like Blue Moon, Rolling Rock and Killian’s back in the 90s. I know they had a stand just inside the entrance to the bleachers and all the beers there were $2-$3 more than the Bud and Old Style shit you can buy everywhere.
I honestly haven’t looked to buy beer at Wrigley in years, so I have no clue what’s available there now. I’ll have to look.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I don’t intend on buying beer at Wrigley either. I just never noticed anything other than the low-grade asswater being peddled for $7.50 a pop nowadays.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Actually, I don’t think the Cubs drafted with upside in mind with the exception of their first pick. They blew a lot of money on that pick and had to be somewhat conservative elsewhere. The bottom line is that damn near every player drafted last month has a lot of upside. If you look at the top 10 rounds, they’re all high upside players. They’re all guys with a lot of potential. They wouldn’t be drafted that high if they weren’t. I don’t think teams take upside over certainty or certainty over upside. There’s a combination of the two that I’m sure most teams are using. One of the things I always hate about the words upside and potential is that all these guys have upside. Every single one of them has upside. Darwin Barney has upside. He could become a great fielder and an average or better hitter making him worth 4 to 5 WAR per season and an all-star. They all have it. And they all have downside. They all have great potential. Mike Piazza was drafted in round 489,768,947 and should be a hall of famer. You can go from 1st overall draft pick to ranked number 1 prospect to bust to cocaine trafficking charges. That guy I linked is Brien Taylor and he was the first big-time prospect I ever remember. He was Mark Prior before Mark Prior was Mark Prior.
All the players drafted have the potential to become hall of famers and all of them have the potential to become janitors at the local grade school.
mb21Quote Reply
I know that there are “better” beers available in the 200 level near 3B at the base of the ramp going to the upper deck and also on the patio behind home plate in the upper level. “Better” beers cost extra, are smaller, and include such things as Guinness, Harp, Dos Equis, Amstel, Pacifico, etc. They might have Fat Tire, don’t think I’ve seen Goose Island. I wouldn’t pay $9 for any of those anyway, so I haven’t looked that closely.
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
if you aren’t chugging rum and coke on the train to wrigleyville then you’re doing it wrong.
dylanjQuote Reply
This is what real Cubs fans drink.
mb21Quote Reply
@ dylanj:
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
Apparently you can track foul bunts using Pf/x data. Nice analysis of the White Sox HERE. Would be interesting for someone smarter than I to do this for the Cubs…
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I didn’t do a full analysis, but when I gated on “Cubs” for the batting team and “foul bunt” as the pitch result I got 36 instances of foul bunts by the Cubs so far this season.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Me too. And I did 2011 and got 94 foul bunts (though my counting may be slightly off).
They have 21 successful bunts so far this season in 57 attempts (not including missed attempts or bats pulled back) for a success rate of about 36%. Last year they were 60 for 154 for a 39% success rate.
It’s not looking like that bunting tournament accomplished much.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Well, (and I know you probably had your tongue in your cheek) all teams practice bunting in ST. Sveum et al. just had a little fun with it. The media blew it out of proportion, imo.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Dude wtf? This team is GREAT at making outs. That’s what bunts are for, right?
MishQuote Reply
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Not if you score 100 points with each bunt.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Bunts also improve fundamentalitude and grinderscrapiliousness
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
For those of you who were wondering, here’s the reason Verlander sucked last night: http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-kate-upton-justin-verlander-20120711,0,2146615.story?track=rss
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
So I assume that Kate Upton gets a playoff share when the NL team wins the World Series then.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
RC, good to see your dodgeball practice sessions are going well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrHfFyCNH5Q&feature=player_embedded
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
I look like a farmer, but
I’m a lover
.
You can’t judge a book by looking at the cover
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yardbirds or Bo Diddly?
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’ve gotten better.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Sounds like you could use a bunting tourney or two.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Always 100 pointers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Baez is good at hitting baseballs out of parks
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8157919/penn-state-nittany-lions-text-joe-paterno-letter-december-2011
I agree. I’m also sick and tired of people using the Third Reich as a way to tarnish the incredible leadership demonstrated by the Hitler Youth.
GBTSQuote Reply
After reading Jonah Keri’s write-ups on Chipper Jones, I’m gonna root for the Braves to make a deep playoff run.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Just thought everyone should know that if you type “obstructed” into Google, this blog is 4th, just trailing “obstructed bile duct.”
GBTSQuote Reply
wait with all this convo about wrigley beer, i can’t believe that no one has mentioned Special Export, aka the greatest/shittiest beer ever. because, why drink an import when you can drink an Export? i can’t remember if that was actually their slogan, or if we just came up with it while we were bombed off Special Export and/or Special Ex Light.
also, it’s kind of disrespectful to post a story about kate upton and not accompany it with a picture.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
i find it amusing and appropriate that the only two parks that were omitted were wrigley and toronto, and when this was brought to the author’s attention, he apologized and said that he’d add toronto.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
Can’t tell if serious?
Doogolas141Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I drink Bud Light or Old Style at Wrigley for the same reason most people do, I think, THE EXPERIENCE(r)!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
It’s obviously not for the taste š
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbKh5NCr6Ao&feature=player_embedded
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
http://youtu.be/GGHYC_7SMDE
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
It’s also customary in these situations to post a picture of Bo Diddley’s guitar player, “The Duchess”.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Message board got spammed a lot.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I saw that. I’ll clean it up when I get home.
mb21Quote Reply
@ mb21:
I guess I just heard that Hendry used to draft more middle of the pack guys whose peak might of not been as high but may have had a more sure path to the bigs. I don’t know how true that is though.
On another note, before the season I thought you were discussing making your own ranking system points based on likelihood to make it to the bigs, what their peak is, etc. Is that something to be unveiled next year?
WaLiQuote Reply
http://www.hitfix.com/whats-alan-watching/breaking-bad-star-bryan-cranston-looks-back-at-walter-whites-greatest-hits-part-1
MishQuote Reply
http://cbschicago.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/report_final_071212.pdf
MishQuote Reply
^^ The Freeh report on PSU
MishQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
The complaint about Hendry was that he drafted on upside and not certainty. Do you remember all the complaints about the toolsy players? Toolsy players are typically considered high upside guys and that’s who Hendry took. Money available to spend is important to remember too. The Red Sox sunk more into the draft than the Cubs did, but in 2011 it was the reverse. The Cubs came away with a really good draft class with lots of “high upside” guys. Honestly, I don’t think teams do much different as far as the draft goes. What separated teams before this year was the money they’d spend (and luck) and what will separate them now is draft slot (and luck). Mostly luck.
I think what DJ and I did here is as close to what I was thinking without incorporating numbers. The more I thought about that the more I realized I just didn’t have the knowledge, time or resources to do something like that.
mb21Quote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/rumor-dodgers-interested-in-ryan-dempster-and-matt-garza.html
mb21Quote Reply