The Tigers are putting Porcello on the market, reportedly. I think it makes sense to investigate was his worth might be. The Cubs have surplus infield prospects, so maybe there's a trade that makes sense.
Rick Porcello Profile
Porcello has always been a pitcher that had great peripherals and bad results. I don't like xFIP, but there's no denying that a 3.19 rate is impressive. However, the ERA last year was 4.32. There are several reasons for this. First, his strand rate is consistently, consistently well under the league average. His career rate is 69.4%; that means that right around 3-4% more of Porcello's baserunners score than is appropriate. The reason for this likely has to do with a few things, but a great reason would be the fact that Porcello is an EXTREME groundball pitcher. Runners move on groundballs, and that tends to result in advanced bases both on outs and extra bases (1st to 3rd) on singles. While groundballers get more double plays as well, I don't think that it makes up the difference. Porcello also suffers from what used to be the runaway worst defense of the left side of the infield in baseball. Cabrera is a DH that plays 3rd. Iglesias is a sublime defensive SS, but before that the Tigers made do with Peralta, who is average at best.
Porcello is a Super Two, so he'll have 2 more years of team control. He figures to make $7.7 million this year, and probably $11.3 million the year afterwards (60% and 80% of MFV). Those are pretty large numbers, but still a discount from what he'd be worth. Porcello has some surplus value, though it's hard to gauge a precise number given how dynamic the variables involved are.
I'm going to assume going forward that the new number for a FA win is $7.0 million. Generally, it's good to be on the other side of the Dave Cameron argument (I kid). If we do that (and keep it steady – read the article), we still need to calculate how many WARP Porcello figures to be worth. He was 2.6/3.0/3.2 in 11/12/13 by Fangraphs, and 1.3/1.3/1.2 by Baseball Prospects (Porcello is essentially the poster child of how edge cases show differences in the ratings systems). I tend to side with BPro, mostly because Porcello's game is wrapped up in infield defense and park factors (Rick gives up the longball on occasion). Neither facet plays up in Wrigley Field. I'd expect 1.5 and 2.0 WAR going forward (he is age-25 this upcoming season). That gives him a surplus value of 3.5 * 7 = $24.5 – $19.0 (arb values) = $5.5 million.
What does $5.5 million buy?
Not all that much, as it turns out. That's around the value of a pick in the 16th-30th range, so the back half of the first round. It also turns out to be the exact value of a Grade B hitter using Sickels system (though that is an old value). That would more-or-less be a Daniel Vogelbach-type.
When I started this piece, my whole thought process revolved around how Christian Villanueva would fit in a Tigers trade. He's a great defender at 3B, and allows Cabrera to DH exclusively (which he sorely needs at this point). He could probably use another half-season of seasoning at 3B, and take over at the hot corner in July when Cabrera starts to need to have days off in the field. He's the approximate surplus trade value of Rick Porcello's contract, as well. I don't think the Tigers would accept that trade (in fact, I'm certain they would not), but it'd be a good starting point in my opinion. Would you be sad if you parted with Christian Villanueva and Duane Underwood for Rick Porcello? I sure wouldn't.
For fun, let's dream big on Porcello. What if he really is worth 3.5 and 4.0 WAR in the next 2 years? That makes him 7.5 * 7 = $52.5 – $19.0 = $33.5 million worth of pitcher. That buys…significantly more. That's a Top 11-25 hitter + a Grade B pitcher. Think Almora and Maples or Vizcaino (Baez is still too valuable in that scenario; his projected surplus value is around $37 million). That's the difficulty of predicting a Porcello trade right now.
Comments
I’d love to see the Cubs go after Porcello.
dmick89Quote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
You mentioned Carlos Beltran for this and I certainly wouldn’t mind the Cubs going after him as an alternative to Choo. You could do a lot worse.
dmick89Quote Reply
Thing is, Beltran will probably cost a lot of money too. If we’re talking $100 million for Choo (I’ve got him worth $65ish over 5 years using CAIRO, $6 million per win and 7.5% inflation), Beltran would be worth more. He won’t get more due to his age, but I think annually, it will be awfully close. I’d prefer Choo and don’t see $100 million as a huge investment anymore. If we’re talking $100 million for someone like Choo, we need to up our estimate of a super-contract to about $200 million. We should do that anyway since $200 million isn’t all that odd anymore. In fact, I think I need to re-train myself in that regard. $100 million just isn’t a large contract these days.
dmick89Quote Reply
I don’t think they are in the market for a third baseman. Vmart is under contract for another year. They should really move Prince to DH, but he won’t go. It’s my understanding that they moved Castellanos off of third base strictly because Cabrera was there.
I do think they will look for a second baseman.
GWQuote Reply
Hmmm. I was under the impression that Castellanos couldn’t hack it at 3B. You are perhaps correct, and that would complicate things. Villaneuva would be wasted at 2B and I wouldn’t trade Alcantara straight up for Porcello (though I’d think about it, it’s not that far from workable for me). Honestly, Porcello only falls to the Cubs if there is no sucker at the table, and there usually is one. Some team will dream on the peripherals (or have a stadium where he plays really well) and come with something.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I was thinking more about a player LIKE the Cardinals did with Beltran. Peralta was actually useful so he could be expensive too, but Corey Hart might be the guy with a very high ceiling for a discounted rate. His injury history probably profiles him as a first baseman now and the Cubs have that at the ML level plus a bunch of candidates coming that could plausibly end up there by the time they reach the majors.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I like Corey Hart if he can play LF for the reasons you describe. I don’t think he can at this point in his career.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Omar LittleQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I keep expecting the Cardinals to make a move for Carlos Gonzalez, since acquiring Colorado OFs has been their MO for the past decade (dying laughing).
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bill Mueller a possibility for hitting coach?
Sigh. I suppose if we can’t get Joe Girardi, he’ll do.
JasonQuote Reply
The major flaw with your analysis I see is that you are underestimating the value of prospects. The dollar value of the prospects is based on the value of a win being around 5 mill, whereas your value of Porcello is based on the value of a win being 7 mill. youre essentially comparing different units.
All that being said, I’d trade Alcantara for Porcello. I think it is pretty likely that Porcello could perform up to his peripherals with a good defense around him. Combine that with him just entering his prime years and I could see him really taking a step forward with the cubs. I really do like Alcantara, but I think this is a good opportunity to deal from a position of surplus.
AndrewQuote Reply
@ Andrew:
I think if you call up the Tigers and offer a package with Alcantara as the centerpiece for Porcello they hang up laughing.
sitrickQuote Reply
Mark DeRosa ——–> retired
I’d be fine with WGN hiring DeRosa. He’s way too overrated by most Cubs fans, but at least he seems like a guy with a brain in his head, unlike Hollandsworth or *shudder* Theriot.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Andrew wrote:
Good point.
@ sitrick:
Why? A top 100 prospect for a guy who will be worth about 4 wins over the next 2 years while making about $15-18 million or more? Porcello was paid $5.1 million in 2013 and had 3 years of arbitration ahead of him. He’ll get about $7+ in 2014 and probably close to $10 in 2015.
I think it would be a good trade for the Tigers. It definitely wouldn’t be a steal from the Cubs perspective. I know I wouldn’t feel like the Cubs came away huge winners. Might even be on the wrong side of that trade.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
I don’t even care if it’s Theriot. I’d only hear him about 3 times per year.
dmick89Quote Reply
Andrew wrote:
That’s a great point. Thanks for catching that. I’d change it right now, but I’m sick as a fucking dog (my wife and kid had it last weekend), so instead, I’m going to try to sleep for 12 hours to get well enough to go to work.
MylesQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Maybe I’m overvaluing Porcello then. I feel like he’s going to be a hot name around the trade market this year, though, with the uptick in K’s having GMs lusting after potential breakout years ahead. I would think the perceived value would be high enough that Dombrowski could probably get a package built around a top 50 range (40-60) at least.
Maybe I’m undervaluing Alcantara? I don’t know. I’m not smart.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Trade value is a tricky thing in that it’s so volatile. The lack of starting pitchers in free agency could increase his value. He could be seen as a guy who can fill out the middle of a rotation for a contender. If there are a lot of teams interested, and there probably would be, the Tigers would probably come away with a favorable trade. Still, the cutoff point for me is probably Alcantara. To me, that’s a good trade for the Cubs and it’s fair value for Porcello. It might be a bit favorable to the Tigers, but close enough.
I won’t be too terribly surprised if that ends up looking like way too little in the end. I’d not want to be the team that acquired Porcello if that’s the case, but I think that’s why you have to have a certain point you won’t cross. For me, it’s around what Alcantara is worth.
dmick89Quote Reply
sitrick wrote:
One of the experts said Alcantara deserves consideration for the top 50. That’s partly why I think the Tigers might come out ahead. I don’t think Porcello is worth a top 50 guy.
dmick89Quote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/wgn-narrows-list-of-candidates-to-annoy-fans-during-cubs-broadcasts.html
Aisle424Quote Reply