Playoff play-in chaos scenarios

In News And Rumors by berselius44 Comments

I'm a little annoyed that while the overall playoff field is set, only one "series" is set in stone right now (the Braves-Cardinals wild card play in game). Don't these teams realize that writers have series previews to write? Anyway here's how things stand right now, followed by what can happen tonight

National League:

3rd seed: San Francisco Giants

Wild Card 1: Atlanta Braves

Wild Card 2: St. Louis Cardinals

The Wild Card game will be played in Atlanta, since they have the better record.

The Reds and Nationals are currently tied for the best record in the NL. The Nats host the Phillies this afternoon, while the Reds play the Cardinals tonight. Here's what can happen.

  • If Washington beats the Phillies tonight, or if both teams lose, the Nats are the #1 seed. They have a 5-2 head to head record with CIN. In that case the Nats play the winner of the StL/Atl game, and the Reds have home field advantage in a series with the Giants.
  • If the Reds win and Nats lose, the Reds get the #1 seed. The Nats play the Giants and the Reds get StL/ATL

Amercian League:

3rd seed: Detroit Tigers

That's all we know. This is where the tiebreaking fun occurs.

If Texas beats Oakland tonight:

The Rangers win the AL West, and Oakland gets a wild card slot

  • If the Yankees beat Boston tonight: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #1 seed, and Baltimore gets the other wild card. If the Orioles lose to the Rays tonight, the WC game would be played in Oakland, as they have a 5-4 record vs the Orioles this season. If the Orioles beat the Rays, they would host the A's. The Yankees would play the winner of this game, and the Rangers would host the Tigers for the NLDS.
  • If the Yankees and Orioles both lose: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #1 seed, based on their head-to-head record of 4-3 with the Rangers. The Orioles play the WC game in Oakland, and the Yankees play the winner of this game while the Rangers host the Tigers
  • If the Yankees lose and Orioles win The Yankees and Orioles tie for the AL East division lead, and play a one-game playoff to determine who has to play in the wild card game. This game would be played in Baltimore, because they have a better intradivisional record than the Yankees and the teams are 9-9 against each other this year. The loser of this game would host Oakland in the wild card playoff game. If the Yankees win the division, they would get the #1 seed based on their record vs Texas. If the Orioles win the division, Texas would get the #1 seed based on their 5-2 record vs the O's

If Oakland beats Texas tonight:

The A's win the AL West, and the Rangers get a wild card slot

  • If the Yankees beat Boston tonight: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #1 seed, and Baltimore gets the other wild card. If the Orioles lose to the Rays, the WC game would be played in Texas, as they have a 5-2 record vs the Orioles this season. If the Orioles beat the Rays, the game would be played in Baltimore. The Yankees would play the winner of this game, and the A's would host the Tigers for the NLDS.
  • If the Yankees and Orioles both lose: The Yankees win the AL East and get the #2 seed. The A's get the #1 seed because they have a 5-5 record vs the Yankees and a better intradivisional record (~57% vs ~56%). The Orioles play the WC game in Texas, and the A's play the winner of this game while the Yankees host the Tigers
  • If the Yankees lose and Orioles win The Yankees and Orioles tie for the AL East division lead, and play a one-game playoff to determine who has to play in the wild card game. This game would be played in Baltimore, because they have a better intradivisional record than the Yankees and the teams are 9-9 against each other this year. The loser of this game would host Texas in the wild card playoff game. If the Yankees win the division, they would get the #2 seed based on their record vs Oakland and their intradivisional records. If the Orioles win the division, Oakland would still get the #1 seed based on their 5-4 record vs the O's.

I'm rooting for a Yankees lose/O's win scenario, just because we'd get bonus baseball.

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Comments

  1. Author
    Berselius

    Final game lineup

    LF Campana
    2B Cardenas
    SS Castro
    1B LaHair
    RF Sappelt
    3B Vitters
    CF Jackkkkson
    C Recker
    P Wood

    Pretty fitting for the 2012 Cubs that 7 of those players are guys who belong in the minor leagues.

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  2. Suburban kid

    @ mb21:
    I was going to say the two hot prospect ROY candidates Jackson and Vitters, but your suggestion works too. Really this team is stacked.

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  3. josh

    The AL is kind of exciting all around. I forgot that the O’s and Y’s were still duking it out for the division. It becomes do-or-die b/c you don’t want to get stuck playing that 1-gamer.

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  4. mb21

    @ josh:
    That’s what it is. They keep saying there are 5 playoff teams in each league, but there aren’t. There are 4 playoff teams in each league just like last year. All Selig did was try to create the same kind of exciting final day to the 2011 season by forcing it to happen every year.

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  5. SVB

    @ josh:
    Play in is used for 2 of the 16th and 12th seeds in the NCAA hoops tournament. It whittles the field from 68-64, and previously for the last seed when the field was 65 teams.

    I like it, not that that matters.

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  6. Author
    Berselius

    SVB wrote:

    Play in is used for 2 of the 16th and 12th seeds in the NCAA hoops tournament. It allows more 8th place schools with big fanbases to get into the tournament to help ratings

    Fixed.

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  7. Author
    Berselius

    I’m not a huge fan of the play-in game, but it says about as much as to who is the better team as the playoffs in general. It’s just one coin flip instead of a handful of them, so bring on the added excitement I guess.

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  8. SVB

    @ Berselius:
    That’s a great fix. I agree. I really don’t care about whether Seton Hall or St. Joseph’s gets into the tournament or not. I do like that all the small conferences are represented though, because I like the Hoosiers/underdog atmosphere of the tournament. And besides, with such a weak sport like basketball, any 3 guys can get hot for awhile, carry the other two, and upset some teams with more balanced talent. Isn’t that what the Bulls did for years?

    When I said I like “Play-in” I meant the phrase, which is what I thought Josh was referring to. But I LOVE the baseball play in. Win damnit. Win a division or face the music of sudden death.

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  9. EnricoPallazzo

    Berselius wrote:

    Pretty fitting for the 2012 Cubs that 7 of those players are guys who belong in the minor leagues.

    wait who is the other non-minor league player besides castro? sappelt’s been ok but he’s only had, what, 70 or 80 PAs. and i guess wood’s not that much worse than replacement level. not sure i’d really want either of these guys on a major league squad though…

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  10. SVB

    Berselius wrote:

    SVB wrote:
    Play in is used for 2 of the 16th and 12th seeds in the NCAA hoops tournament. It allows the Big East to retain some semblance of relevance as a sports conference.

    Fixed

    Fixed better. ??

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  11. mb21

    Not that it really matters to me, but isn’t MLB still blacking out local games? I don’t care about watching the Royals so it doesn’t matter to me one bit. Mostly, it never bothered me anyway. There were only a handful of games each year that I couldn’t see. The last 2-3 years it hasn’t bothered me at all since the Cubs have sucked. Still, it will be nice to know I can watch the Cubs on a Saturday afternoon on MLB Extra Innings.

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  12. WaLi

    @ WaLi:
    That’s not even enough peanuts to field a baseball team!

    The Cubs haven’t fielded a baseball team this year yet so that seems about right.

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  13. EnricoPallazzo

    josh wrote:

    The AL is kind of exciting all around. I forgot that the O’s and Y’s were still duking it out for the division. It becomes do-or-die b/c you don’t want to get stuck playing that 1-gamer.

    i was thinking about this and it would almost be better if the o’s lost, played oakland in one game, and then played the yankees for the 5-game series. i mean not really but my point is i’d rather play NY for 5 games than texas or oakland. if the o’s lose, they’ll have a day off tomorrow. if the win, they face NY just to see who gets the WC spot and then they still have to play the WC game the next day if they lose to NY. i think i’d almost rather see them forego the one-game playoff (game 163, that is) so that they can be better rested for the 1-game WC playoff game. then, as i said, they’d likely play NY over a 5-game series which is way better then 5 games vs. texas.

    not sure if this makes any sense but this is one of the reasons why i was so against the added playoff spot – it’s just kind of pointless. there is enough action going on right now and adding this one game just makes the logistics more unreasonable and in my opinion adds nothing to the excitement level.

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  14. josh

    I meant the term itself “play-in.” I like the concept all right. did they make up a new term because saying that the two teams are playing off for the final spot makes it sound manipulative? It’s a 1-game playoff. I dont’ understand the etymology of the term.

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  15. mb21

    @ josh:
    I like the idea of 2 mini-seasons each year. Play 90 or 100 games each season (who doesn’t like more baseball?) and you have 2 champions each year. Then if you really want you could have those teams play each other.

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  16. josh

    @ mb21:
    Yeah, the 162 game season drags on, especially if your team isn’t very good. A shorter season would allow for more statistical variance (i.e., excitement) I would think. I know it’s not going to happen, too, and they probably shouldn’t because reasons.

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  17. josh

    Carrie Muskat had a tweet where she said that Sori wants a shot at a WS ring before he retires.

    THEN WHY DIDN’T YOU TAKE THE TRADE TO THE GOD DAMN GIANTS!?

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  18. mb21

    josh wrote:

    THEN WHY DIDN’T YOU TAKE THE TRADE TO THE GOD DAMN GIANTS!?

    He had a chance and turned it down. Saying you want a chance at a championship after declining a trade to a contender is just stupid.

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  19. Suburban kid

    Bob wants to see Campana hit a home run, LaHair steal a base, and Wood throw a knuckleball. He “wants to have fun”.
    .
    .
    .
    .for the first time all year

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