The Cubs have three middle infielders for two positions. Addison Russell is planted at shortstop so that leaves Starlin Castro and Javier Baez for 2nd base. There are other possible scenarios. Baez or Castro could move to centerfield if the Cubs don’t re-sign Dexter Fowler or add another CF via free agency or trade. Neither have played there, but there’s probably not any reason that they couldn’t.
Castro is the more proven player of the two. I have my concerns about both of them. Castro has not been very good over the last 3 years. Baez, even when he somewhat turned it around in limited action in 2015, still was average to slightly below average at the plate. Overall, he’s had a 65 wRC+ in his career. Baez is probably the better fielder and is much cheaper.
Steamer projects 1.6 fWAR from each player in 2016, but it has Baez with more than 260 fewer plate appearances. I believe Steamer is being way too optimistic, but the projections are what they are. At this point in their careers, I’m not sure anyone would argue that Baez has greater potential. I’d also like to think that no one would argue that Castro, despite his erratic performance, is more likely to give you an average performance than Baez.
Trading Castro makes sense. They probably won’t lose much, if anything, in terms of value by going with Baez and they’d save money. Castro is set to earn $7 million in 2016 and $37 million overall from 2016-2019. There’s also a 2020 team option for $16 million or a $1 million buyout so it’s actually $38 million guaranteed. Knocking off $7 million from the books in 2016 isn’t a huge chunk of money, but it might be able to help the Cubs land a top-tiered free agent this offseason. It might be one of the only ways that can happen.
The Cubs have shown interest in trading Castro in the past and I think we should expect to see that happen again. Castro’s strong performance over the final two months might also have increased his trade value. He doesn’t make so much money that the Cubs are just going to get rid of him for nothing. They’ll want something in return and they should get it.
We’ll start with the 1.6 win projection from Steamer and go from there. Castro doesn’t turn 26 until March so he’s in his prime right now.
| Year | pWAR | Salary | $WAR | Total Value |
| 2016 | 1.6 | $7 | $8.50 | $13.60 |
| 2017 | 1.6 | $9 | $9.00 | $14.40 |
| 2018 | 1.6 | $10 | $9.50 | $15.20 |
| 2019 | 1.3 | $11 | $10.00 | $13.00 |
| Total | 6.1 | $37 | $56.20 |
Add in the buyout and the surplus trade value is $18.2 million. To the best of my knowledge, nobody has updated the chart I used to use for this that was from an article by erik manning who put together the chart based on Victor Wang’s THT article.
It would be interesting to see how that’s changed over the years. When I went into this article, I was thinking the Cubs could probably expect a hitter ranked in the top 100, but closer to the bottom of that list. Still a good haul for someone like Castro.
Teams aren’t as willing to part with young players as they were 7/8 years ago when those articles were written. Looking at it again, and factoring in some inflation, I’m thinking the Cubs can probably expect a grade B pitcher with the possibility of a pitcher ranked in the 76-100 range. If the Cubs were to kick in some money in the deal, which kind of defeats one of the purposes of trading him in the first place, they might also get back a low level pitching prospect (probably a relief prospect.
For what it's worth, if Castro were to become a 2.5 win player again, which is entirely possible, he could have upwards of $50 million in surplus value. Even if Castro improves back to what I think we'd all agree he's more than capable of, this could turn out to be a disaster of a trade if the Cubs don't get something really good in return. I think Theo has to consider that when trading him.
Theo and company have worked some pretty good trade magic in the last few years so I think they could come out of this with a bit more than we expect. If you were expecting a top 10 prospect for a player who looked like he was on the fast track to becoming a perennial all-star a few years ago, you’ll be disappointed. That’s the not player Castro turned into though he’s still young and there remains that upside.
I started this article several days ago, but my dog got sick and I couldn't finish it until I wrote a little bit about my dog. I just stared at the screen and couldn't focus. I was able to focus after I wrote something about it. I thought I'd share it here.
My dog Lexi had gotten sick a couple weeks ago and she barely ate that day. She ate a bunch of leaves outside so she could throw up. Later that evening she was fine. Relatively fine. She was to turn 16 in November and had a number of ailments she was being treated for. A less friendly dog owner probably would have given up awhile back, but her quality of life, with my assistance, was still pretty good. She was still having fun. Most of the time.
Then she got sick again a few days after that. Same symptoms. She ate a bunch later in the day and everything was fine. Until a few days later the same thing happened. We added additional meds. This time, antibiotics. It was a last ditch attempt. She was fine for about a week and then she got sick again. She woke up on Wednesday and I knew right as we were going up the stairs. She was nearly 16, almost completely blind and completely deaf and she was still able to climb a flight of stairs multiple times per day. I had to race up behind her to make sure she was safe. She almost always was, but if she stumbled, which happened on rare occasions, she was stuck with nowhere to go. I had to help her.
Life was slowly slipping away from her and I did everything I could to make it last without making her suffer. Once she woke up that day I knew it was time. She was sick again and I called the vet to set up an appointment to put her to sleep. I needed a day to say goodbye. I needed a day to do everything we did on our routine one more time. I needed a last time for all the things we did each day. I cherished everything that we did one last time.
We put her to sleep Thursday morning and life isn’t the same without her. I see her everywhere. If I’m eating dinner, I can see her little ears sticking up over the table as she’s staring at me, hoping I drop something. I see her when a commercial comes on and I look down beside me to check on her. She’s still there. I look out back and I can briefly see her. She’s everywhere I expect to see her, which is almost everywhere. It’s amazing how much my life has been affected by her and I’m confident she felt the same about me. That’s a good feeling to have.
I had almost 16 wonderful years with her and it’s hard to say goodbye. She was terrific in every sense. As a puppy she rated a 75 on the 20-80 scale for speed with 80 potential. She was lightning fast and not even Yadier Molina could have thrown her out. She was a 70 defensively. She could have saved the 2008 Cubs NLDS single-handedly with her defense. She could play all the positions and handled the shift with ease. Her ability to chase down a frisbee was astounding, which isn't an important skill in baseball, but it's pretty awesome so I included it. Her awareness of where everything and everyone was at was unmatched.
At only 35 pounds in her prime, she wasn’t the most powerful dog. She rated as a 50. Average. Nobody is perfect.
What she lacked in power, she made up for in on-base skills. She showed a promising future early on and was rated as a 55, but in her prime she was was an 80. She took full advantage of the tiny strike zone that pitchers had to work with.
Her thick white coat of hair made her a favorite among the sportswriters too. She was the scrappiest, most grittiest of them all.
She had a terrible arm. There’s no other way to put it. Her arm made Jacque Jones look great. 20 as a youth. 25 in her prime. Still, she ran fast enough that she could just run the ball to 1st to get the out. It wasn’t ideal, but Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta have proven it can be done. I’m pretty sure each of them learned it from Lexi.
Despite the imperfections, of which there were many, she is already missed. She was loved and cared for. She had a very good and very long life. She was a happy and loving dog. She made people happy and she was loved by a lot of people
Comments
For those of you who have an iPhone on iOS 9, here’s a direct link to the Obstructed View iOS 9 News Channel if you’re interested: https://apple.news/THXSxo92ZSF-yEMSB__hHZw
dmick89Quote Reply
I am sorry the doggy died. That’s rough. Our ratdog is starting to have heart and breathing problems but he’s still growling at me when I piss him off so I think he’s got a few years left…I don’t know where I’m going with this. Sometimes it’s tougher to lose an animal friend than it is to lose a person :-/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Thanks, RC. It’s a tough decision when it comes to euthanizing the animal. The right time to do it when you feel good about it. Sorry to hear your dog is starting to have some problems. Is it pathetic that I’m already looking for a new dog?
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89,
The new dog won’t ever replace the old dog, but I feel the old dog would understand.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice tribute dm.
What’s Baez’s trade value?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
I’ll do that later tonight or tomorrow. Iowa plays at 2:30. It’s going to be a lot of money in surplus trade value.
dmick89Quote Reply
https://twitter.com/ithrow88/status/659821281492144129
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
(dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
Is there any way that we can rename it OV Action News?
berseliusQuote Reply
berselius,
(dying laughing) I’ll check. Might be able to.
dmick89Quote Reply
berselius,
I think I can change it, but I’m not entirely sure how it will appear in the Apple News app. I’ll test it out later tonight just for fun.
dmick89Quote Reply
WTF, Rios?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Loss is always tough. A consoling spectator may say some rot like “at least she had a long life”, which is just the worst. I feel like that makes the loss hurt in a different kind of way that isn’t any better.
My parents just put down one of the five cats that were born to my kitten that got hit by a car when her kittens were five months old. She was fourteen and had to be put to sleep—her mother didn’t make it to a year (yeah, they can get pregnant fast, oops). Neither death was easy. Only one of that litter is left—she seems like she may go for a few more years, but someday soon…
It sucks, but don’t feel guilty about looking for a new pet whenever you want or need to.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This is the team that swept the Cubs?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Good thing New York fans are an understanding bunch.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
I think I laughed out loud several times when the Royals took the lead.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
cerulean,
Thank you.
dmick89Quote Reply
Poor doggie
This KC team, man. Screwing up the fundamentals and consistently winning. You’re in the World Series and you don’t know how many outs there are, and this leads to a run!
umbraQuote Reply
Sorry to hear about your dog, DM. That really sucks.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Sorry about your dog dmick but that was a great fucking eulogy.
As far as baez goes, I’m pretty doubtful that he’ll ever be super useful at the mlb level…but man, that home run in game 4 sure bought him a bunch of leeway in my book. That was probably my favorite moment out of the hundreds of games I’ve been to at wrigley.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Thanks, guys.
I’m pretty doubtful about Baez too. I’ve started on his trade value, but I think given his track record to this point, it will have to be taken for a grain of a salt. More so than the rest of the these. Some teams may find he has little to no value for them. Other teams may be willing to give up a lot. I’ll probably do a few different versions of the trade value.
dmick89Quote Reply
Harvey is really good at pitching/ignoring physicians’ orders.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cespedes’ miserable series continues.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
That looked extremely painful for Cespedes.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
He probably shouldn’t have been allowed to finish that at-bat.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
I get the feeling Terry Collins doesn’t care since there’s almost no way the Mets retain Cespedes.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Perkins,
I meant in terms of game outcome. With the bases loaded and no outs, you need someone who can swing a bat.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat,
True, though I’m trying to think of anyone on the Mets bench who swings better than an injured Cespedes. (dying laughing)
PerkinsQuote Reply
It’s almost like bringing your starter out for the 9th with a two run lead in an elimination game might not be a good idea.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Wow.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nobody won this World Series. The Mets lost it.
dmick89Quote Reply
It’s 2015. That shit shouldn’t be happening.
dmick89Quote Reply
Yeah it’s not rocket science that most starters aren’t good the fourth time through the order.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Terry Collins looks like a man who’s worried about getting fired.
And that’s probably reasonable after punting his decision to his pitcher and Mets fans in an elimination game.
PerkinsQuote Reply
That got out of hand quickly.
PerkinsQuote Reply
All hail Ned Yost.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Can’t wait for all the thinkpieces about how the Mets were “exposed” in the WS.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
Let the off-season begin!
ceruleanQuote Reply
dmick89,
EnricoPallazzo,
Given Baez’s defensive abilities and power, I think plenty would be willing to take that risk. Is a .300 wOBA beyond him? Cost controlled with good defense at a premium position, that’s Ian Desmond or Wilmer Flores production with potential—even if unlikely—superstar numbers. True, he could wOBA .250, but he could wOBA .350. He is too young to write off, especially given his cup of coffee this season after a truly rough start to the year.
ceruleanQuote Reply
Note that .350 is a bit of a stretch—I think more like .330 would be his unlikely but possible ceiling.
ceruleanQuote Reply
I was pretty close on guessing Daniel Murphy’s line for the WS.
I guessed .200/.250/.200.
His actual slash was .150/.320/.150.
That’s correct. After hitting 7 HRs in 9 games, he had an ISO of .000 in the World Series. Because baseball.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
MLBTR has a piece on Castro’s trade value that complements this pretty well. (If you find your way to the Cubs’ off-season outlook—don’t read the comments.)
ceruleanQuote Reply
Good advice for every single piece posted on the interwebs—except for around here, of course. (dying laughing)
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
The comments around here are the only redeemable quality to a site that has been un-re-un-discredited as many times as this one has—though I do unwittingly strive to lower that bar.
ceruleanQuote Reply
This I think is the question. Prior to 2015 it was questionable as to whether or not Baez could play SS because his defense was subpar. All of a sudden when the Cubs have too many options at the position, his defense was considered to be outstanding. There’s no risk for the Cubs in talking up their players and making them sound better than they are, but I’m presuming other teams will have done their own scouting on him. Is the defense thing true? I don’t know. From what I’ve seen, it looks pretty solid, but far from great.
I think I overstated earlier what I meant to say. A lot of teams will be interested. I’m guessing some won’t because they won’t want to potentially waste a roster spot. Those teams are few.
dmick89Quote Reply
I might be crazy but I don’t think the Cubs are going to end up trading Castro this offseason. I’m sure they’ll explore trading both he and Baez, but based on theo’s comments about diversifying the type of hitter in the lineup, that lends me to think they may hang on to Starlin bc he’s the only high contact/low K guy they have. Baez, while an enticing package, is too much like other hitters High K, high power. I could be wrong. I don’t think his FO is the type to have specific players/FAs/trades in mind; they explore everything and then go with the best route. Which to me is the best way to do it
NateQuote Reply
dmick89,
Sorry to hear about your dog.
I’m sure teams will be interested in Baez, but I’m sure they’ll be looking for a pretty big discount considering he still has pretty extreme contact issues.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Thank the maker that’s over with.
berseliusQuote Reply
Nate,
Castro isn’t exactly a low strikeout batter. He’s struckout 100 times or more 3 of the last 4 years (2015 the exception). I still think you might be right, but I do expect them to shop him.
He is a low strikeout batter relative the rest of this lineup though.
dmick89Quote Reply
Andy Greenwald just wrote about 40,000 words on Twitter. I did not read every word.
dmick89Quote Reply
Did each tweet come with three footnote tweets for every tangential pop cultural reference in the original tweet?
berseliusQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
He can lie about a few details, but I know that’s Alvin.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid,
What.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube,
That has to be from someone who is mentally challenged. As much as I’d like to laugh at that, I’ll feel bad if I do.
dmick89Quote Reply
Rice Cube,
Sorry. Try and remember all the good times and when your ready rescue a new dog friend. We recently lost one of our dogs unexpectedly but after a while drove to Boston to rescue our new friend. He is now a Cubs fan.
willycatQuote Reply
I haven’t actually seen any analysis about the Hosmer play to tie the game (and maybe I don’t read every post) but I think the consensus was that it was a super-stupid play that worked out because Lucas Duda can’t throw.
willycat,
Thanks, my dog isn’t done yet, he’s still barking at me to give him treats. Got low-grade doggy epilepsy though, so we gotta watch that along with the heart and breathing issues *ugh*
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So apparently Bud Black to the Natinals is not only not officially official, but might not happen at all. And Dusty Baker might be their next manager.
I can only assume Stephen Strasburg is afraid of the effect on his impending payday.
PerkinsQuote Reply
It sounds like Nats completely lowballed Bud Black. Kinda makes you glad Ricketts ain’t cheap anymore.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
dmick89,
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Aman to that. And while Dusty may have had a good reputation over a decade ago, if I were a Nats fan I’d be looking at this as the window of contention slamming shut in my face.
PerkinsQuote Reply
Suburban kid,
Domino’s Pizza @dominos
We’re sorry to hear about this! Please let our friends at @dominos_fagets know of this so they can help.
RynoQuote Reply
Sorry to hear about your dog, dmick89.
RynoQuote Reply
Wait, good coaching is important in the NFL? Inconceivable! If only SF had several years of bad coaching for frame of reference…
Harbaugh knew how to maximize Kap’s talents and hide his weaknesses. Among other things. But yeah, he was the problem.
RynoQuote Reply
Baker -> Nationals
myles -> (dying laughing)
mylesQuote Reply
Natinals ————–> hot mess
Though perhaps the Nats realized, given this last WS, that it doesn’t really matter who your manager is, and figured they might as well save a few bucks.
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
I don’t think Baker is a good manager, but I think he’ll do a good job, or at least, I think he’ll keep the Nationals competative.
MillertimeQuote Reply
Looks like SF will join the Bears*, CLE, HOU and maybe WAS in the battle for the two worthwhile QBs in the next draft.
*and that’s how I make my ramblings relevant to this audience.
RynoQuote Reply
I think Baker is an OK manager. He’s not the worst and he’s not the best.
dmick89Quote Reply
Ryno,
Given their other needs, do the Bears really go with a QB this draft? With the way Jay is playing, I’d think it would be OL, DL, ILB, or CB with their first pick, depending on BPA. If the BPA is a QB, I’d think the Bears would be better off trading down to get more picks.
MillertimeQuote Reply
New shit: http://obstructedview.net/the-40-man-roster-rule-5-draft-part-1/
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Always happens to me…
RynoQuote Reply