Where We Stand Now (4-18-16)

In Commentary And Analysis, Major League Baseball by dmick8919 Comments

Week 2 (April 11 – April 16)

  • Monday, April 11 vs Reds: W 5-3 (Box, OV Recap)
  • Wednesday, April 13 vs Reds: W 9-2 (Box, OV Recap)
  • Thursday, April 14 vs Reds: W 8-1 (Box, OV Recap)
  • Friday, April 15 vs Rockies: L 1-6 (Box, OV Recap)
  • Saturday, April 16 vs Rockies: W 6-2 (Box, OV Recap)
  • Sunday, April 17 vs Rockies: L 0-2 (Box, OV Recap)

Injuries and Call ups: Javier Baez was called up and Munenori Kawasaki was sent to Iowa. 

Previously: Kyle Schwarber (out for season, ACL, LCL, ankle)

Adjusted Standings (Baseball Prospectus)

Team W L PCT RS RA  
Cubs 9 3 .750 71 31
Reds 6 6 .500 52 66
Brewers 5 7 .417 39 68
Pirates 7 6 .538 57 56
Cardinals 7 5 .583 85 50
 
Team W1 L1 PCT1 RS RA D1
Cubs 9.9 2.1 .822 71 31 -0.9
Reds 4.6 7.4 .387 52 66 1.4
Brewers 3.1 8.9 .261 39 68 1.9
Pirates 6.6 6.4 .508 57 56 0.4
Cardinals 8.9 3.1 .743 85 50 -1.9
 
Team W2 L2 PCT2 RS2 RA2 D2
Cubs 10.4 1.6 .871 63 21 -1.4
Reds 4 8 .330 50 72 2
Brewers 2.5 9.5 .208 39 78 2.5
Pirates 8.2 4.8 .628 75 58 -1.2
Cardinals 9.1 2.9 .759 86 49 -2.1
 
Team W3 L3 PCT3 RS3 RA3 D3
Cubs 10.3 1.7 .860 60 21 -1.3
Reds 4.7 7.3 .390 55 69 1.3
Brewers 2.6 9.4 .215 37 73 2.4
Pirates 8.2 4.8 .632 72 54 -1.2
Cardinals 8.7 3.3 .725 83 51 -1.7

PCT: Winning percentage
PCT1: 1st Order Winning Percentage uses actual runs scored and allowed to calculate Pythagenpat (similar to Bill James Pythagorean Theorem).
PCT2: 2nd Order Winning Percentage uses estimated runs scored and allowed based on the team’s underlying statistics and then uses the Pythagenpat method.
PCT3: 3rd Order Winning Percentage is the same as PCT2 except it adjusts for quality of opponents.
Original article by Clay Davenport

The adjusted standings still don't mean a lot at this point. The Cubs probably should be a bit better than they are based on some of their underlying stats, but I think all of us will happily take a 9-3 start. It would have been nice to take at least 2 of 3 from the Rockies, but the Cubs hitters basically went to sleep that series.

Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus)

Team W L ePCT Sim Wins Sim Losses Div % WC % Playoff % Adj Playoff% WS Win % 7-day change
Cubs 9 3 .556 92.2 69.8 73.1% 15.2% 88.3% 81.2% 12.4% 1.7%
Dodgers 8 5 .560 91.6 70.4 72.9% 13.9% 86.8% 80.4% 13.0% 3.1%
Nationals 9 2 .539 89.9 72.1 55.5% 24.4% 79.9% 68.1% 8.1% 11.6%
Mets 5 6 .550 88.1 73.9 41.6% 28.7% 70.3% 56.8% 7.8% -0.7%
Giants 7 6 .519 84.7 77.3 19.2% 29.3% 48.5% 33.7% 3.1% -7.8%
Cardinals 7 5 .509 83.1 78.9 12.5% 24.9% 37.4% 24.6% 1.9% 7.9%
Pirates 7 6 .510 82.8 79.2 10.9% 24.1% 34.9% 22.6% 1.8% -4.2%
Rockies 7 5 .472 77.8 84.2 3.8% 8.8% 12.6% 7.7% 0.4% 4.8%
Diamondbacks 5 8 .482 77.1 84.9 2.9% 7.1% 10.0% 6.2% 0.3% 1.9%
Marlins 3 7 .483 76.5 85.5 2.2% 6.2% 8.4% 5.1% 0.3% -2.5%
Brewers 5 7 .477 76.6 85.4 2.0% 6.4% 8.3% 4.9% 0.2% -4.4%
Reds 6 6 .467 76.0 86.0 1.6% 5.3% 6.9% 4.0% 0.2% -6.8%
Padres 4 9 .474 74.4 87.6 1.3% 3.6% 4.9% 2.9% 0.1% -4.1%
Phillies 6 7 .445 72.3 89.7 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Braves 3 9 .441 69.4 92.6 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% -0.7%

ePCT: The expected win percentage that BP uses in their Monte Carlos sim is the projected strength of the team. 

If the Cubs have another strong week, they might get their playoff odds up to 90%. Also, it would mean beating up on the Cardinals, which would be a lot of fun.

Win Probability Added (WPA) Leaders

Position Players (Week 2)

  1. Addison Russell: 0.58
  2. Jorge Soler: 0.17
  3. Miguel Montero: 0.02

Starting Pitchers (Week 2)

  1. Jake Arrieta: 0.41
  2. Jason Hammel: 0.32
  3. Jon Lester: 0.12

Relief Pitchers (Week 2)

  1. Adam Warren: 0.10
  2. Hector Rondon: 0.07
  3. Travis Wood: 0.04

Jason Hammel (0.13 WPA), John Lester (0.10) and John Lackey (0.04) each had an offensive WPA higher than the 3rd best position player this past week. Each of the first two weeks, the top pitcher WPA has been Arrieta followed by Hammel and then Lester. It's kind of amazing the Cubs finished the week 4-2. Jason Heyward, Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist all had negative WPA over the course the week.

Position Players (Season)

  1. Addison Russell: 0.58
  2. Dexter Fowler: 0.39
  3. Anthony Rizzo: 0.25

Starting Pitchers (Season)

  1. Jake Arrieta: 0.75
  2. Jason Hammel: 0.56
  3. Jon Lester: 0.32

Relief Pitchers (Season)

  1. Adam Warren: 0.24
  2. Hector Rondon: 0.16
  3. Travis Wood: 0.12

Up next: the Cubs have 3 against the Cardinals and 4 against the Reds

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Comments

  7. berselius

    Myles:
    Dislocated my shoulder today. Nuke this post from orbit.

    Don’t tell me what to do.

    Also, that sucks, hope you feel better soon. Didn’t you dislocate your shoulder around the same time last year too?

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  8. berselius

    Myles,

    I got nothin’ unless this game goes into a two hour rain delay.

    Holy shit, it’s 80 degrees in St. Louis right now. It’s been snowing here for the past three days.

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  13. Myles

    berselius: Don’t tell me what to do.

    Also, that sucks, hope you feel better soon. Didn’t you dislocate your shoulder around the same time last year too?

    Sure did. Left shoulder is apparently made of balsa wood.

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  16. Millertime

    Myles,

    When I was a kid I was in an Odyssey of the Mind competition where we had to build a small bridge out of balsa wood, and see how much weight it hold.

      Quote  Reply

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