Cuban News

• The notable free agent news of the day is that the Cubs are unlikely to sign Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, per CSN’s Patrick Mooney. This is a good thing, I think, unless his price ends up dropping to the $10 million range. At that point, he might be a decent gamble.
• The Cuban National Team is currently in the midst of a five-games series against a team of college players from the US. Lefty Misael Siverio took this opportunity to inconspicuously disappear into the ethnically-dense and culturally-rich city of Des Moines.

Siverio Scouting Report From Victor Mesa

Cuban National Team manager Victor Mesa told the USA today after the defection:

You may see the gentleman that defected working as a laborer. He came with us because he’s a left-hand thrower but he’s not that great of a pitcher.

That sharp intake of breath you just heard was the Red Sox’ front office gasping in admiration. That’s a grade 70 smear campaign right there. Agent Jaime Torres’s response seems to be along the lines of: “He’s left-handed, you idiots! Haven’t you ever heard of Jesse Orosco?” (Note: this is a loose translation.)

I would love to rebuke Mesa with the power of my spreadsheets, but I’m not sure he’s all that far off in his evaluation.

Video and Amateur Scouting Report

Siverio is twenty-four and was a starter for the Villa Clara team in la Serie Nacional that won the championship this year. He started twice in the final five-game set, which is available for online viewing. I have to admit that I find these games captivating, despite all the pointless noise from the stands. Cuban fans seem to have eschewed the vuvuzela craze in favor of actual trumpets, trombones, and something that sounds like a siren.

Misael’s main weapon seems to be a slow, sweeping curveball that he’s willing to throw in any count. His fastball sits at 86-87 miles per hour, and runs in on right-handed hitters.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPzLtiROQ5A

Misael Siverio Stats

	Tm	Age	G	GS	IP	W	L	AB	TBF	H	R	ER	ERA	K	BB	BBI	2B	3B	HR
2008	VC	19	22	16	51.7	5	2			62		26	4.53	48	28				5
2009	VC	20	29	4	66.0	6	2			50		12	1.64	64	31				4
2010	VC	21	30	1	67.3	5	3	272	300	82	36	35	4.68	79	22	5	9	1	7
2010*	VC	21	7	0	8.7	0	2	40	46	15	10	10	10.38	7	4	0	1	0	2
2011	VC	22	18	17	101.0	9	7	373	429	86	40	35	3.12	94	47	4	16	2	5
2011*	VC	22	3	2	10.3	1	2	35	44	7	6	5	4.36	4	5	1	1	0	1
2012	VC	23	20	13	80.0	5	5	312	359	93	37	33	3.71	55	38	4	18	2	3
2012*	VC	23	2	0	5.3	1	0	24	24	8	2	2	3.38	3	0	0	2	0	1
2013-1	VC	24	10	10	62.7	5	5	227	247	55	17	13	1.87	42	13	2	7	1	3
2013-2	VC	24	10	10	55.7	4	2	209	232	55	12	12	1.94	39	21	3	8	1	1
2013*	VC	24	2	2	10.0	0	0	36	40	11	4	4	3.60	4	1	0	2	0	1
Totals			153	75	518.7	41	30			524		187	3.24	439	210				33

	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	dt K/9	dt BB/9	dt HR/9	dt NERA
2008	19	51.7	8.4	4.9	10.8	0.9			8.1	5.1	1.4	4.56
2009	20	66.0	8.7	4.2	6.8	0.5			8.4	4.2	1	2.99
2010	21	67.3	10.6	2.9	11.0	0.9	26.3	7.3	10.4	3.6	1.3	5.39
2010*	21	8.7	7.3	4.2	15.6	2.1	15.2	8.7
2011	22	101.0	8.4	4.2	7.7	0.4	21.9	11.0	8.9	4.5	0.7	3.68
2011*	22	10.3	3.5	4.4	6.1	0.9	9.1	11.4
2012	23	80.0	6.2	4.3	10.5	0.3	15.3	10.6
2012*	23	5.3	5.1	0.0	13.5	1.7	12.5	0.0
2013-1	24	62.7	6.0	1.9	7.9	0.4	17.0	5.3
2013-2	24	55.7	6.3	3.4	8.9	0.2	16.8	9.1
2013*	24	10.0	3.6	0.9	9.9	0.9	10.0	2.5
		518.67	7.6	3.6	9.1	0.6

*Playoffs

Notes: dt-prefixes indicate Clay Davenport’s translations. The 2013 season was split into a first half, in which everyone played, and a second in which 8 qualifying teams advanced.

The press has been trumpeting Siverio’s under-2 ERA in 2013, and this year does seem to have been a very good one for the pudgy left-hander, but I’m a little dubious as to the track record as a whole. After starting for most of the season as an 18-year old, Siverio was shifted to the bullpen for two years prior to a move back to the rotation at age 21. He also seems to have spent half the season in the ‘pen at age 23. When deciding whether to invest in a Cuban pitcher, “bounced in and out of the rotation” is not something you want to see on a resume. Let’s take a look at how he compares to some of the other defectors profiled so far.

Cuban Comps

	Yrs	Ages	G	GS	IP	TBF	K/9	BB/9	H/9	HR/9	K%	BB%	ERA	WHIP
Mig Alf G	2010-12	23-25	40	38	245	1021	6.2	2.3	8.8	0.6	16.5	6.2	3.49	1.23
Dalier	2010-13	24-27	62	59	396.7	1689	7.7	2.7	9.0	1.0	20.1	7.1	3.79	1.31
Odrisamer	2010-13	23-26	100	100	647.7	2785	6.8	3.7	8.5	0.5	17.5	9.6	3.38	1.35
Misael	2011-13	22-24	65	54	325	1216	6.7	3.5	8.7	0.4	17.5	9.1	2.88	1.35

I tried for at least three full seasons worth of recent data. For Siverio, I included his 2012, even though it includes 7 relief appearances mixed in with 13 starts. Siverio has an advantage in ERA, driven by his stellar results from 2013. Aside from that, his walk rate is higher than you would like, and his strikeout rate is not on the level of Dalier Hinojosa’s. His suppression of homeruns has been good, on the whole.

If you wanted to make the case for Siverio, it’s that he’s younger than the rest of the defectors, left-handed, and may have made some strides in 2013. Follow that path too frequently, and you may end up with more players in your AZL bullpen than you know what to do with. On the whole, I think that he and Odrisamer Despaigne are on a tier below Gonzalez and Hinojosa.

Previously profiled defectors are Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Dalier Hinojosa, Odrisamer Despaigne, Dariel Alvarez and Aledmis Diaz, and Alexander Guerrero.